China Medical Share Discussion Threads

[dasv] 21/9/2009 12:02

those targets are just reflections of buying or selling inertia. The Updata software has an algorithm for when a target is to be shown on the basis of break-out patterns. Take them with a pinch of salt, but they are useful for setting limit sells etc.

[radarlove] 21/9/2009 11:51

dasv,

Thanks for that chart.

I can never understand how TA can be an exact science but, so long as this bull rally continues, 298p seems a logical next step... if the share price breaks out! :o)

My one concern is, we may need some news and as the interims were early this year, it would have to be unexpected eg. a positive RNS on their drug development.

[dasv] 21/9/2009 11:49

if it does break out active targets are 283, 298 for starters.

[radarlove] 21/9/2009 11:22

After around 2 months of consolidation, are we about to have a breakout or just the MMs playing silly b*ggers?

If it does breakout where's the next share price level - 300p?

[dasv] 27/8/2009 10:31

I finally bought some... no real fall ex div?

[stegrego] 14/8/2009 23:34

Ex divi on this coming Weds - 10c.

[radarlove] 14/8/2009 20:02

boadicea,

"A text-book retrace would take it back to the 205-210 range imho where it will hopefully be a profitable (but probably leisurely) 'buy' for the next leg up.."

Do not be surprised if the next leg up occurs sooner rather than later. If the Chinese stocks bull rally continues apace, CMSH is on the radar of a growing number of PIs and institutions, being one of the best Oriental AIM shares. The previous consolidation occurred over a 2 month period. I would suggest this next lull may take far less time.

I got back in today but could only buy via a floor trader as the number of shares online for offer were tiny. This to me shows the MMs were sniffing out sellers rather than buyers before the next hike up. Hence, today's volume of just 14.4k shares.

Certainly, I'll buy more 'if' there is further weakness. I would suggest we may see a similar chart pattern occur to WCC ie. a third leg up since the Spring. I believe on forward earnings, CMSH has a PE of around 7. Still excellent value for a pharmaceutical company growing close to 40% a year.

Presently, investors have abandoned CHMS as they chase other soaring Chinese and Indian AIM stocks. They'll be back! :o)

[dasv] 14/8/2009 14:16

(50% of world's lithium is in bolivia - but not producing much right now

[boadicea] 14/8/2009 13:55

Most certainly, yes.
However, their capacity seems currently to be fully engaged meeting the demand for industrial electronics (mainly telecom) back-up batteries and electric cycle batteries. Afaik their largest production type is the traditional lead acid accumulator but they also have other technologies inc Li - and I assumed this was Li-polymer (Lipo).

Their principal concern has been to keep up with demand.

"The world's largest producer of lithium is the United States. Three of the largest U.S. mines are located in Silver Peak, Nevada, and Kings Mountain and Bessemer City, North Carolina. Other major producers of lithium compounds are Australia, Russia, Canada, Zimbabwe, Chile, and China."...
... so I assume Chinese Lipo batteries use indigenous Li.

I'm sure you will find better info on the CHNS thread.

[dasv] 14/8/2009 11:52

boadicea. I am very interested in the lithium battery segment. A friend of mine is building electric motorcycles using LiFe (Lithium Iron nanophosphate) cells. The market is split between LifeBatt (Chinese company) and A123 (Californian company). If these companies can scale up their technology to larger size cells then LiFe/nanophosphate cells could be the technology of choice for electric vehicles: benefits are high energy density, high discharge capacity, high charge rates and zero risk of fire (unlike Lithium polymers/lithium ion).

I am also interested in Lithium miners though haven't found a way in yet except for some very speculative canadian micro cap/explorers (e.g. LAT). There was a feature in moneyweek about this idea and a Chilean lithium miner was mentioned.

Bolivia has most of the world's lithium but doesn't want anyone else getting involved.

Question - Could China shoto benefit from the mega trend towards electric vehicles/hybrids?

[boadicea] 14/8/2009 11:31

CMSH now clearly on a retrace path.
A text-book retrace would take it back to the 205-210 range imho where it will hopefully be a profitable (but probably leisurely) 'buy' for the next leg up. However, hanging around can mean being overtaken by news.

[boadicea] 14/8/2009 11:29

CMSH now clearly on a retrace path.
A text-book retrace would take it back to the 205-210 range imho where it will hopefully be a profitable (but probably leisurely) 'buy' for the next leg up. However, hanging around can mean being overtaken by news.

dasv - Thank you.

[dasv] 14/8/2009 11:22

boadicea - very useful post. thank you.

[boadicea] 13/8/2009 21:19

dasv - I think the RCG issue goes a bit deeper than the ownership as such - it's how the company was financed and the ownerships came into being. Add to that the unusual characteristics of the China deals - VB, CB, A1 etc and a lot of people are left feeling nervous.
The nervousness now seems to be as great in HK as in UK to the extent that the share price on AIM this week is actually higher than in HK for the first time.
I didn't get into WCC - thought the balance sheet looked a bit tight and they might need a dilutive issue.
However, as most others in RCG it seems, I also hold CHNS and GNG and am quite happy in both.

I think CMSH looks at least as promising as any of them.
I also hold SFT which pays a useful divi and is cash rich so in spite of its tax software roll-out delay it looks extremely cheap and should motor on any signs of firing on all cylinders.

Of these, only RCG can go into an ISA (and then not with all providers, notably NOT BSL).

[dasv] 13/8/2009 10:43

I have done well by buying into companies such as WCC, ATD, ABC, XPP, PFC, HLO very recently which are currently at all time or annual highs, so I am not put off by the chart entirely. As liarspoker points out on HLO, buy until the PEG is too high. Right now PEG on CHMS is incredibly low. And one would think that the market for CHMS's products is non-cyclical: i.e. if this recent rise in the market is merely a very strong bear market rally rather than a new bull market, CHMS may not be affected. I like this sector and I like the figures - but they are so good I almost can't believe it. RCG also has low PEG and a good balance sheet. Perhaps if it didn't still have the ownership issue hanging over it, RCG share price would be 4x where it is.

China shoto anyone?

[boadicea] 12/8/2009 19:33

dasv -
I am also a recent recruit to the CMSH company and continue to think it looks good value although naturally pleased to have got in before the last hike up.
This one seems to resist the retraces suffered by most companies after such a rise, but even so, with a quiet period possibly for the next couple of months you could wait a bit to see what develops... - Your decision!

[radarlove] 12/8/2009 14:07

I believe so.

Rather like SOLA, investors lost trust in the company. This "trust issue" is becoming ever more important. Some Chinese companies are more professional than others with their PR and accounting practices. CMHS appear to be one of the good guys.

I believe there is a move in motion - set up by a CEO of one of the AIM Chinese food-related companies - to bring everyone into line by signing an agreement for 'proper practice' ie. in line with the West. If this is successful, this should give Eastern firms a boost in the eyes of Western investors. Trust is the present key issue and why Chinese companies, generally, have a lower PE than their Western counterparts.

[dasv] 12/8/2009 12:33

radarlove - thanks for reply.

RCG also made it through the screen though there must be a catch (looking at this year's chart). Is it still the ownership issue?

[radarlove] 12/8/2009 12:00

dasv,

Re: Chinese companies, there is a suspicious judgment that they can't be trusted; although, there are regular moves to readdress this problem and bring their accounting practices etc.. in to line with the West. This should allay PIs fears and bring the companies PEs more into line too. This offers a window of opportunity for investors to make decent money as a fair number are ludicrously low!

Having researched Chinese AIM firms CMSH is, in my view, one of the best. If your investment strategy is medium to long term, then buy in now, and if the share continues to consolidate, average down.

Short term, I don't see the share price rising much but I am biased because I made my money on the recent rises and presently sitting on the sidelines watching. I will definitely reinvest in the future as CMSH is in my top 3 Chinese AIM.

[dasv] 12/8/2009 09:42

I just found this stock by doing a screen on high earnings growth, low PE, negative gearing, 3x dividend cover.

It seems I have missed the spike, but the PEG and PE coupled with dividend point to a buy even at these levels. The main problem for me as a newcomer is that recent buyers may take profits, and that there isn't a historical backdrop of prior accounts. Should I be suspicious of such excellent figures?

[stegrego] 06/8/2009 21:59

They havent upgraded their forecasts, but personally i think they will easily be beaten....

[boadicea] 06/8/2009 19:37

mercury - Having now looked at both CMSH and HCM, I prefer this one as being less speculatively based (imho, that is.)

[mercury123] 31/7/2009 07:57

Thanks for that radarlove - Anthony Hilton did a piece on China Med in the Standard yesterday saying it was undervalued at 80p and this is the only China Med I could find so I thought he'd got his prices wrong - clearly he meant the one you mention which i will now go and check out - tho this one looks good too...

[stegrego] 29/7/2009 19:16

Rated as a BUY today by Seymour Pierce - dont know any other details

I think will do about 27p+ this year and 35p+ next year.

Thats around 8.7 and 6.7 p/e's

Seems cheap for something growing 30%+ per year and yielding over 5%