Carador Income Share Discussion Threads

[wirralowl] 10/12/2012 09:32

oniabsta, idealing would appear to have a more general technical problem with divi payments at the moment; as well as the CIFU divi, I'm still waiting for a divi payment from ECWO, which should have been paid on 30/11!

Here's an extract from the email they sent me last week, when I chased it up:



"We do have a slight technical problem our side regarding the payment of dividends, but we should soon be able to resolve this.

The dividend amount has been received here but we are unable to credit your account at the moment, we are hoping to do this very soon.

Sorry for the delay."

[oniabsta] 08/12/2012 08:29

Looks like iDealing.com are the laggards this time.

[mbu69] 07/12/2012 19:21

yes tdw have paid

[oniabsta] 07/12/2012 19:05

anyone seen sight of the divi yet?

[solarno lopez] 26/11/2012 08:09

Agreed FLYING PIG lets keep this a sensible forum for debate

[yieldsearch] 25/11/2012 23:10

Jonwig you may also add to the header volta finance, which operate the same mix of abs/ equity piece of clo cdo as cifu, but i think more exposed than cifu to europe, and good for people seeking euro dvd. Managed by axa, nice performance this year

[flying pig] 25/11/2012 17:40

gives rather more on Tetragon.

The flying pig

[jonwig] 25/11/2012 11:56

flying pig:

Have added a note on Tetragon to the header - will be useful to compare their statements on CLOs, etc.
I'd vaguely heard of them, thanks for the reminder.

[flying pig] 25/11/2012 10:05

Chaps,

Cool it a tad.

We are all grown up (well on this board at least - unlike some) and can "Do Our Own Research". I hold all three plus Tetragon (quoted in Amsterdam which has multi-bagged and is paying a very very good dividend on my small original investment) and have held them all for some time.

All four have plus/minus points - liquidity, discount on assets, asset security and valuation issues, dividend yield, information transparency, management fees/strengths, etc etc

I welcome the opinions and news, but will make my own mind up.

The flying pig

[jonwig] 24/11/2012 18:58

SKYSHIP 24 Nov'12 - 10:37 - 58 of 61 1 0(premium)

"Always useful to compare the two" - Yes, then switch over and buy RECI:

[bold mine]

[skyship] 24/11/2012 15:48

jonwig - sorry, just what was that all about. I ask you to reconsider those ill-conceived comments.

Rampers seldom provide fundamental detail and seldom state their holding position. I did both! My post was really just to alert fellow-travellers on the last two days news which marks RECI as a standout BUY.

I ask you now to reconsider and apologise. We've been on ADVFN as serious investors, not ignorant ramper/traders, for a long time; and your post above is an aberration...

[jonwig] 24/11/2012 14:53

At least the ramping is transparent!

But of course, GLIF, RECx, CIFU are operating in the same universe - loans and loan packages which are regarded as 'toxic' since 2009 and largely held by banks who are constrained to divest them and where the M-to-M price is artificially low.

The fact that some are property-based and others not might be a factor (in the case of senior default) but the basic principle is the same: there's an arb opportunity which some investors are taking advantage of.

It's not too clever to ramp one against the other (take care of your own garden) especially as most holders of these will be pretty sophisticated investors able to make their own minds up.

For myself, my largest holding here is probably RECx (ie. a mix) with similar in CIFU. I've doubts about GLIF's recent acquisition (mainly via lack of transparency) but I bought back a few after the Edison note (why was Edison given extra information?).

I'm sorry you choose to give us this sort of advice, SKYSHIP (post #58) - it does you no credit.

Incidentally, every signal suggests loan defaults will increase in 2013 if only because of an increase of US economic activity and (maybe) UK and EZ following.
It would be prudent to plan for a topping-out in all these investments

[badtime] 24/11/2012 10:59

hold all apart from CIFU lol

[skyship] 24/11/2012 10:37

"Always useful to compare the two" - Yes, then switch over and buy RECI:

# NAV is now UP 42%YTD
# Yield is 7.7%
# GS has just declared a 15% stake
# NAV discount is still 23%
# Cheyne selling has been holding the stock back - but they are now OUT
# Stock broke through the 100p resistance this week - now 104p-105p
# Next stop 120p
# Last chance to get cheap stock
# For ultimate security buy the 8% prefs @ 99.75p. An 8% yield for the next 5yrs

OK - I'm one very happy holder of both RECI & RECP; but I really do feel CIFU & GLIF holders should also hold these - assuming they don't already do so of course!

[dendria] 24/11/2012 10:06

Kenny on the GLIF board has posted an article by David Stevenson (Adventurous) on FT. Mentions CIFU but focuses on GLIF. Always useful to compare the two.

[dendria] 21/11/2012 21:20

I added today - probably fully invested now. At my average cost still on over 15% yield so could withstand a tail-off. I expect a topping out rather than a tail-off.

[jonwig] 21/11/2012 19:27

Pejaten - you're right to be wary here that "past performance is ..." (we all know how it goes!).

Seasonality of income receipt isn't something I've looked at, and it may not be reliable, but I'll come back to you if I learn anything - thanks for the hint.

As for C share conversion, I do suspect that this will weaken overall numbers ... if CIFU's NAV has been growing (as it has) then new investments will cost more than current holdings, so CIF-C will have smaller accrued gain than CIF-U. The fact that conversion isn't 1:1 helps a bit, not much.

As you point out, the historic performance here has been so rewarding, it would only be prudent to expect a tail-off!

[pejaten] 21/11/2012 12:28

If you look at past quarters majority of income is received in first month of quarter so doubt that level of this dividend in any way reflects ability to increase dividend again. This has been a wonderful share for me, but have a couple of nagging worries. First is that gross income received is much lower and I am struggling to understand that. Second is that the portfolio built with c shares proceeds will be a slight drag on growth in income while they built up the capital buffer. Long term probably makes no difference but this will surely restrict room for dividend increase in the near term?

[jonwig] 21/11/2012 09:10

oniab - but part of the 2.7c refers to income built up over calendar 2012 to date, so won't be recurring.

As I moaned: I wish they'd explained in a bit more detail!

[oniabsta] 21/11/2012 08:52

If your right...2.7+2.4=5.1c.
That's a 34% increase on last quarter.
There is no cause for complaint there.

[jonwig] 21/11/2012 08:32

Oh, and I'd be prepared for a divi announcement in Jan covering only two months (Nov, Dec) so likely 2.4c or thereabouts ... so not altogether a free lunch here!

[dendria] 21/11/2012 07:59

I never mind checking jonwig - it usually makes good reading!

[jonwig] 21/11/2012 07:25

The dividend announced this morning of 2.7c would appear to be a special dividend for the period from 01/10 to 31/10 which is partly a release of retained income over the calendar year.
Judging by the NAV statement also issued today, they are diverting less income to the capital buffer, in line with their policy.

'Ordinary' dividends are announced in Jan, March, July, October - as far as I know that hasn't changed.

It would be nice if they'd saved us the work of checking!

[jonwig] 15/11/2012 10:14

This, on page 2 is a key statement, I think:

The U.S. loan default rate, as measured by the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index, has remained relatively low at 1.06% by principal amount as at the end of October. This compares favourably with the historical average by principal amount of 3.33%. ... We do not believe such levels are sustainable in the medium term and this is reflected in loan managers' expectations of 2013 default levels of 2.7%.5

It explains the strong performance in calendar H2 and it might be worth toning down expectations of future dividend increases.
But, because transfers to capital have been progressing, cuts aren't particularly likely.