Camkids Share Discussion Threads

[chevalierdaven] 07/5/2015 09:52

Directors resigning to save face and cover their asses: the beginning of the end.

[topvest] 30/4/2015 21:38

This is the same scenario as Naibu in my view - see my post a few months back. It will end in tears.

[caradog] 29/4/2015 05:35

Swooped, it's hardly irrelevant when a comparable company collapses. It's not just nationality that Naibu and Camkids share. They sell the same goods in the same market using, as far as I can see, almost identical business models and have raised finance on AIM rather than locally. The share price is below claimed cash per share and the dividend has been passed when it, on paper, could easily have been paid. The market is factoring in a catastrophe, possibly a total loss. Could be wrong, but just looking at the share price graph in the header tells you that near-catastrophe is already a reality for any investor who bought in just 18 months ago. if you back the company in the face of all that you are very brave or foolish and deserve any profit or loss you make.

[swooped] 27/4/2015 17:46

I don't see how you can say it is predictable, you see a similar situation with another company and because that company is Chinese you then automatically decide it also refers to CAMK, a very narrow view. Do you take the same view for UK companies, I certainly hope not and yet AIM is classed now as one of the biggest roulette wheels available with british companies going bust all the time, look at Lond and AMI, one and the same? to rule all companies frauds is just xenophobic imo and takes the same narrow view as that of the lowlife likes of TW.

You may get it right here and may just as well be wrong, at the end of the day Chinese or not they are privy to the same rules as these uk based companies on AIM as regards reporting, other than the fact that they are not so easy to prosecute however, they can just as quickly be kicked of the market. IMO at 20p this is looking a steal if you believe the numbers, if you don't then I would suggest you have the courage of your conviction and short it, that is if you are not already, in which case your post makes perfect sence why you would post a negative outlook on a share you do not own.

[topvest] 24/4/2015 19:13

My guess is 0p if you hang on or c20p if you get out now, but it's up to investors to decide. It's all become very predictable I'm afraid. I'm amazed that IC were covering today as "micro-cap special situation"...well it's certainly "special" but possibly not in a good way!

[edmundshaw] 24/4/2015 11:02

Well, if it is a question whether this is a fraud, the results tip the balance a bit more towards the negative outcome.

But

1) I don't think Camkids directors will be keen to emulate the new lifestyle of the ex Naibu CEO, so I am guessing they will keep this going, whatever.

2) Camkids has a longer and more reputable history than Naibu. The risks were always less here (now, obviously, they are).

As a binary bet, this is either worth 0p as a fraud, or well over 100p as a solid business with accurate accounts. But there is a third possibility (most likely imo) somewhere in between those two: either or both of i) accounts being exaggerated or ii) business in a tricky market is struggling to some (unquantifiable) extent. In that case valuation V is 0p < V < 200p. Where exactly is pretty hard to guess...

Yer pays yer money...

[trentendboy] 24/4/2015 08:36

Agreed.

If anyone made money on the ride from 20 to 30 well done

[lennonsalive] 24/4/2015 07:42

Fraud, scam alert.....one morning you'll wake up and it'll be bust!

[kev0856153] 23/4/2015 21:39

"Plans for the construction of new plant will be deferred until there are signs of a pick-up in sales orders. "


Hang on. Didn't NBU also buy land for a new factory then made some excuse about it not being suitable. This looks like a clear fraud to me.

[topvest] 23/4/2015 21:04

Well there you go. Following a similar story line to Naibu. No chance of a further dividend in my view. I was amazed that the share price bounced the way it did.

[caradog] 23/4/2015 19:05

So, a near 10% increase in franchised outlets (which Camkids subsidises) leads to a 6% drop in revenue and a 38% drop in forward orders. The Company decides to spend money training franchisee staff. Receivables paid after an average of 149 days! Lip service paid to e-commerce but no coherent strategy implemented or even defined. Major competitors taking market share. Dividend withheld despite stated large and increasing cash pile. Does anybody believe that margins are really in the high 30% range as stated? Does anybody believe that sales are falling because of the government anti-corruption drive?
It will be interesting to read how Simon Thompson tries to explain away this recommendation. He changed his Naibu recommendation to a sell as soon as the dividend was inexplicably cut.

[swooped] 23/4/2015 16:57

The cash position alone is worth 56.6p per share, how ridiculous is this pricing unless they are lying about the cash position, the company comes with the cash for free, something is not right, on this basis one could buy the whole company for twice the closing share price today and still be quids in.

[mrwhits1] 23/4/2015 14:56

delisted within 2 years I reckon, another "norfork"

[rugby] 23/4/2015 14:34

Another Leeson special, what an utter smurf!

[mrwhits1] 23/4/2015 14:23

just a pity I couldn't borrow any from IG.....

move along now, nothing to see here.....

[gary1966] 23/4/2015 14:06

Dividend suspended for the foreseeable future is the way that I interpreted it. Given their cash balances and the cost of the dividend this seems extreme as does cutting salaries of their staff. Order book down substantially but are they now in danger of losing key staff as a result of salary cuts? If some of these staff are on the design side could this affect sales in the future?

Gary

[edmundshaw] 23/4/2015 14:06

I meant held as in not released, not held as in at the same level.

Should have been clearer I guess. Yes, dividend held - er - cut for this half at least. If conditions remain difficult as projected, could be suspended for another half or two... or worse.

Restored dividend will restore confidence in the share. Could be a longish wait for these to recover... :-(

[salpara111] 23/4/2015 14:03

forward order book down a staggering 38%
As the saying goes....I wouldn't touch it with yours!

[graham1ty] 23/4/2015 13:29

edmund, dividend cut, not held .....

[edmundshaw] 23/4/2015 13:09

Dividend held, so cannot afford under 4p (when scrip taken into account) for a year where earnings are over 23p?

Hm. There is cautious with cash and there is just mean.

[yf23_1] 23/4/2015 13:07

Results out.
Profts down but still equate to over 20p per share.

[spectoacc] 20/4/2015 11:55

"Hindsight has 20:20 vision". At least you took a small turn out of them; it's difficult when there's the hint of a binary outcome on CAMK. I can't claim to have added - bought too many much higher.

Right, enough posts from me!

[edmundshaw] 20/4/2015 10:49

Well I did add at 20p but sold those at 24p :-(

At least the 34p ones are in profit :-)

[edmundshaw] 20/4/2015 10:48

Quite.

I am beginning to feel a little stupid for not having added when the price wqas around 20p (or less). Other than that quite a pleasing development.