Camkids Share Discussion Threads

[rearsky] 18/11/2014 21:47

I have finally received some due diligence on Camkids from a Shanghaiese MBA grad, it is not all hunky dory. Business seems legit and ecommerce is doing relatively well but the scale of the business and revenues is much smaller than reported. Tax figures just do not match accounts at all. True tax is more like a fraction of what is claimed. She found plenty of tax bureau evidence that highlights this....mismatch. And also quick checks with industry people: position in kids outdoor is not #3 at all. Anyway...It looks nobody cares anymore and the share price plummetted anyway but basically, exert great caution...

[jimbox1] 17/11/2014 21:34

The risk factors are being hysterically exaggerated on this board. I for one appreciate the straight forward update announcement we saw today.

Edmundshaw, I'm with you. Ignore the hyenas.

[edmundshaw] 17/11/2014 18:02

Seems the well-documented downturn in growth in China is affecting distributors' confidence in next year's volume prospects. China not used to recessions, and realistically this probably is one.

Camkids is right to downsize a bit to meet reduced demand and protect margins. How this will affect the bottom line next year is anyone's guess. But as long as they maintain margins and market share this is just the usual pain that comes with cyclic economies (i.e. economies. Sorry Gordon, boom and bust is never going away). The downturn seems already well priced in here.

Interesting venture into cycling... One thing that is good is that they are moving with the times. Nothing stays still; and chinese culture has that notion embedded in it (think I Ching) so will not be a surprise to them.

[edmundshaw] 17/11/2014 17:48

Hm, quite a negative board at the moment. Negative and content free...

[muffinhead] 17/11/2014 15:53

Chinese companies are toxic waste

[chevalierdaven] 17/11/2014 10:39

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." W.B.

[chevalierdaven] 17/11/2014 10:38

what a debacle....it's the "hallali" as we say in French!

[kenny] 17/11/2014 10:04

Chinese companies should not be allowed to list in London. Those who choose to list in London rather than Hong Kong clearly are fraudulent because they avoid the more detailed scrutiny they would be exposed to.

[chevalierdaven] 17/11/2014 09:03

I hope they cut the dividend; that would be the safe thing to do to preserve the long term prospects. They are so good, with the 4-2-1 spoilt kid model, the evergrowing consumer appetite, the discovery of outdoor pursuits with the need for "bluesky" and getting out of the overcrowded polluted Chinese cities.
I will suggest that to the board. Then no more weak hands on the register, only long-term thinkers.

[deanroberthunt] 17/11/2014 08:31

What a surprise..............NOT

isn't AIM brillaint.

[caradog] 17/11/2014 07:47

Having expanded outlets, orders are down 13%, so like-for-like sales must have dropped even more. This vital parameter has not been disclosed. The claim that the downturn was not affecting sales of children's clothes now shown to be untrue. Margins seem to be falling with the shift to mid-tier products.
A perfect storm, and entirely predictable. Perhaps those unfortunate shareholders still on board will now see why the Chinese crew jumped ship? A man-the-pumps day ahead, I fear.

[graham1ty] 17/11/2014 07:39

When this is not valued on any kind of fundamentals, this should not have any impact. But of course it will...and theybwill get slaughtered

[silkywhite] 17/11/2014 07:34

The Board reports that feedback from the Group's distributors on the design of its product range has been extremely encouraging. Notwithstanding this, the Group's distributors are adopting a cautious approach towards 2015 given the macro-economic backdrop in China and the reduction in consumer spending. At the same time, the Company's strategy of launching in Tier 3 and Tier 4 cities and the various transitional changes that this entails as the Company develops a mid-end range in order to boost sales in these new cities has also affected the value of the Group's current order book. These factors, combined with the fact that the final value of the Group's spring/summer order book is approximately 13 per cent. behind the same period last year, lead the Board to adopt a conservative stance towards its prospects for 2015.

[silkywhite] 17/11/2014 07:33

and so it begins

[edmundshaw] 11/11/2014 14:50

0184, will have a gander, I have some HK dollars doing not a lot at the moment...

[edmundshaw] 11/11/2014 14:49

Well you know what Warren Buffett says about panic! This is your buying opportunity!! :-)

[chevalierdaven] 11/11/2014 13:47

Edmundshaw: in you want solid SE Asia ideas, I suggest 0184 (Keck Seng)in HK for instance, or Forterra Trust, listed in Singapore.

[chevalierdaven] 11/11/2014 13:44

I sense panic...it must be a case of "sell first, ask questions about EGM later"?

[edmundshaw] 11/11/2014 13:36

Chev, if buybacks then the doomsters would be shrieking that the Chairman has too big a grip on the company, over 75% enabling him to take it off AIM without needing any support from other shareholders.

You can always find a negative whatever they do or do not do. Bashing is so easy, being constructive takes a bit more effort.

Anyway, on the constructive side, what are your investments that you think are a better place for your money?

[chevalierdaven] 11/11/2014 13:27

Mmmh...today's EGM must have been a resounding success; price off 10% in heavy volumes. CAMK is getting "Naibooed" :)!

[chevalierdaven] 11/11/2014 13:18

I tell you what any company would do if they really wanted to achieve a higher valuation and you trust the numbers.

Chairman has 51.53 million shares or 66.91% of CAMkids. The entire free float of the company is 33.09%=25.48 million shares worth 49p.

The entire free float can be bought back at a piddly £12.5m.

This is just small change for the fantastic cash-machine that is Camkids. In 2014, in just 6 months their net profit was £9.1m.

Or they could decide to distribute some super-dividends. What about the £ 48.6 million cash war chest they hoard. I suggest a one-off 68p dividend with immediate effect. After all, for such a money spinner as this consumer business, it is not out of question, they will replenish the coffers so quickly they should not be too worried.

[graham1ty] 11/11/2014 12:37

PS there was nothing operational discussed. An hour on corporate governance. And how they can differentiate themselves from the Chinese peer group dragging the valuation down

[graham1ty] 11/11/2014 12:35

Well, long meeting. Could have been two mins of EGM. Ended up hour conference call with China and non Exec. They are listening, admitting mistakes and willing to engage. More anon.

I have a meeting later with the two non Execs and another vociferous shareholder to run through concerns. they are listening.