Calnex Solutions Share Discussion Threads

[2bluelynn] 21/10/2022 16:47

I would like to jump in on this share I like all it has to offer .. there's just something about the Director sells that niggles me any thoughts any one

[rp19] 21/10/2022 16:28

Don't disagree, I like the company, executed well so far and I hope there is an update soon. Need to confirm still on target for expectations in my view. Otherwise, in the current market, I fear the mid 20s PE will drop a fair bit. There was also a 90,000 share sale last week by the VP of Engineering.

[masurenguy] 20/10/2022 13:50

#675:Some recent Director sales too.

True, but these were Tommy Cook selling just 5.5% of his holding and the FD selling 33,000 shares (14% of her holding of 236,000) after being granted options on 500,000 shares.

The circa 20% fall in the shareprice over the past 6 months just reflects the broad market trend which has hit all mid and small caps and it is actually a lot lower decline than has been experienced in the broader market during that period. In fact Spirent, who is the major customer for CLX, has seen a 12% increase in their shareprice during that period. Furthermore, circa 85% of CLX sales are billed in $US so they should also benefit from the recent sterling weakness.

"The global market for telecoms test and measurement equipment in 2020 for mobile networks alone was estimated by Frost & Sullivan to be around US$1.3bn and is forecast to exceed US$2bn by 2024." Annual Report 31/3/22

Current PER for 22/23 is circa mid-20's which is not a particularly high metric for an expanding Tech business in a very fast growing market. There should be a first half trading update any day now.

[apad] 20/10/2022 12:43

But not yet. Maybe chip supply problems?

apad

[rp19] 19/10/2022 15:33

It has held up pretty well compared to others in a really poor market. That said, although stating in line with expectations in the August AGM statement, there was a reference to a 'H2 weighting'. Some recent Director sales too. There was a Trading Update on 12 October last year. Maybe another one around the corner?

[masurenguy] 19/10/2022 15:28

Now at an 8 month low.

[masurenguy] 27/9/2022 16:40

Ben Rogoff, the manager of Polar Capital Technology, says that “technology is still the story of the decade and has driven earnings growth both in its own and other industries.” Consultants Gartner expect IT spending to have increased by 3% this year to $4.5trn, with growth skewed to artificial intelligence, security and cloud computing. Rogoff expects revenues and earnings growth in the IT sector of 11%, noting that sector weakness is entirely the result of a sector de-rating to multiples “in the low 20s. We didn’t expect the scale of the pullback.” MoneyWeek

[swiss paul] 27/9/2022 16:02

Anyone have any idea if the move to 'e sims' will have any affect on CLX or is that just a problem for the operators?
thanks

[masurenguy] 25/9/2022 08:38

Calnex could gain some further interest on the back on todays tip in The Sunday Times for Spirent !

"Last month, its order book stood at a record $283m..... customers include governments, and all of the world’s ten largest tech firms. It is already working in the high-speed ethernet 800G market, striking a deal to use its new test platform with a major equipment maker. The business is recession-robust, if not proof: whatever the outlook, governments are investing in 5G to protect their competitiveness. It’s well-tested technology: buy Spirent."

Complete article here:

[rivaldo] 09/9/2022 09:06

Cheers Mas.

CLX are also featured nicely in the new issue of Shares Magazine just out. They have a table of the best performing IPOs since March 2020. CLX are 5th in the overall list, with a again of 225%, but are actually the best performing IPO of all if you strip out the top four which are all resource/oil companies.

They note:

"CALNEX PASSES THE TEST

Shares in little-known telecoms testing kit maker Calnex (CLX:AIM) have climbed 225% to 156p since the Linlithgow-headquartered company braved pandemic markets by listing its shares on the AIM market in September 2020 at 48p.

A global leader in the telecoms network testing space, Calnex’s distinguished list of customers includes BT, Ericsson (ERICB:ST), Nokia (NOKIA:HEL) and Intel (INTC:NASDAQ) and share price strength comes against a backdrop of continued high demand for the company’s range of test and measurement solutions.

Calnex is benefiting from supportive market trends with the transition to 5G and growth in cloud computing, the order book remains strong and the company’s broad spread of products and global markets clearly has appeal for investors.

Full year results showed another strong year for Calnex, with revenue of £22 million coming in 8.9% ahead of Cenkos’ £20.2 million forecast and pre-tax profit up 64% to £6 million. As the broker commented on 24 May, ‘the long-term macro driver of the transition to 5G and continued growth in cloud migration is also expected to continue to drive demand from both new and existing customers and the record order book as Calnex entered full year 2023 provides a strong outlook with continuing strong sales momentum’."

[masurenguy] 08/9/2022 16:19

Good spot, Riv.

[rivaldo] 08/9/2022 15:54

This is from CLX's AIM admission prospectus - whatever portion of dollar revenues are unhedged should provide very good gains for CLX considering the weakness of the pound:

"Exchange rate movements

The Company’s reporting currency is UK sterling. The majority of orders, circa 85 per cent. in FY20, were received and settled in US dollars. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates, in particular sterling to US Dollar exchange rates, could have a material adverse effect on the Group’s business, revenue, financial condition, profitability, prospects and results of operations"

[1stuartstuart] 17/8/2022 09:46

some things i learned that i wish i knew years ago when i started investing--

Which factors drive stock returns?

It depends on your time horizon.

Over 1 year ➡️ Sentiment.
Over 2 years ➡️ Valuation.
Over 5 years ➡️ Earnings.
Over 10 years ➡️ ROIC.
Over 20 years ➡️ People and culture.

The Power law governs returns.
Volatility is the cost of admission.
Expanding our time horizon reduces risk.
Only fundamentals matter in the long run.
There is always a reason to sell.
Macro predictions should be ignored.
Your behavior drives your returns.
IPO means It's Probably Overpriced.
Timing the market is futile.
Successful investing takes time.

[rivaldo] 17/8/2022 07:19

A nicely solid update - and it's great to hear that the long-term multi-year contract with key customer Spirent has been renewed once again.

The update is very similar to last year's, in that there's obvious confidence in meeting expectations, order books are strong, there's high demand for products etc. And we all know what happened after that in terms of upgrades.

I suspect the increasing data centre work will be extremely lucrative, and the transition to 5G is still in its infancy.

[hew] 17/8/2022 07:12

Sometimes being “all OK” is just OK……R30;.

A very firm hold for me whilst I seek a little more excitement elsewhere. With the importance of their products being “solid” in every way for their big-name global users who use them to establish, define and maintain their large complex networks and systems, it’s only reasonable that their customers should see the company behind those products as equally so.

[masurenguy] 17/8/2022 07:04

AGM Statement

Calnex has made solid progress against its strategy in the first few months of the new financial year and is confident that the Group's performance in FY23 will be in line with market expectations. The Company continues to experience high demand for its range of test and measurement solutions as it benefits from supportive market trends with the transition to 5G and growth in cloud computing and the order book remains strong.

As previously reported, the Company continues to successfully mitigate the impact of the global semiconductor shortage on its ability to manufacture and ship products, in conjunction with its partners. As with the prior year, this may cause monthly revenue to fluctuate, and the Board expects there will be an H2 weighting to the Group's trading performance. The expansion into adjacent markets, including data centres, represents an exciting new opportunity for Calnex. The Group continues to build relationships in these verticals. Following the acquisition of iTrinegy in April 2022, the Group is pleased to report that the integration is progressing as planned.

Calnex has recently renewed its multi-year contract with long-established partner Spirent Communications plc. This is the third renewal since the relationship was established in 2013, demonstrating the continued mutual commitment to growing the relationship for the success of both parties. Despite wider global issues, the Company's positive trading performance and the supportive trends within the telecoms sector provide the Board with confidence in its ability to deliver on its growth strategy this year and beyond.

[1stuartstuart] 16/8/2022 20:17

will calnex produce linear or exponential growth, I have alot of shares here, I usually choose american shares, cos the volume of
the trades are huge, easy to not become a bagholder and american shares run on excitement, short squeezes, reddit, wall street bets, yahoo finance, stocktwits, twitter and more.
there is so much premarket and afterhours trading in the USA , its sometimes unfair if you cant do that.
So here I am back to my fav Uk stock.One point I wish to make, stocks that came multibaggers reinvested all their income, I see calnex is paying a dividend, it would be better if they used that money to expand and grow exponetially, than linear.
linear is good as a steady growth, but when you look at say zoom, Nio, etc , you see no dividends and exponential growth and these stocks went up 30 fold. within a year or 2.
yes, calnex is at the right price point to become multibagger, in my sense these are those that go up 100 fold, they need to start at a microcap level and grow fast.
but its exponential growth it needs.
my other point is can funds own lots of shares in AIM stocks or are we limited ???

[rivaldo] 15/8/2022 10:55

Excellent news dated in June from recent acquisition iTrinegy of an expanded relationship with BT not posted here before:



"BT Chooses NE-ONE for SD-WAN Multi-Cloud WAN Emulation

Programmable, Automated Software Defined Test Network gives insight on how SD-WAN technology can transform customer and user experience.

June 12th 2022

Calnex Solutions plc, an industry leader in network synchronization and network emulation, today announced that it has expanded its relationship with BT, one of the world’s leading communications services companies, to provide powerful multi-cloud WAN Emulation. BT’s Dynamic Network Services (DyNS) Explorer Lab first became an NE-ONE Customer in 2019. It has since implemented NE-ONE as its preferred WAN Emulation solution to power a safe, agile platform in which to demonstrate the value of of purchasing SD-WAN solutions from BT and help enterprises accelerate their digital transformation.

“We’ve invested in creating a world-leading environment so that customers can validate the potential benefits of a range of SD-WAN technologies to distinguish between hype and reality,” said Konstantinos Rigas, Head of Overlay Products at Global, BT. “NE-ONE continues to play a critical part in this process and has enabled us to build a wide range of pre-modelled sophisticated test networks and simulations for customers to use.”

“Enterprises wanting to truly understand the benefits of SD-WAN need to look no further than BT’s Explorer Lab,” said Peter White, NE-ONE Product Manager. “We’re thrilled that NE-ONE is helping BT to create accurate, controllable and repeatable test networks in which enterprises can get a first-hand view on what deploying SD-WAN means for their applications and users.”

BT’s DyNS Explorer Lab uses NE-ONE to:

Create real-world enterprise network topologies including branch to data center, data center to data center, branch to branch or any combination of these
Apply normal and degraded network conditions to one or more network links in which to validate how customer applications work with SD-WAN
Simulate network degradation including limiting available bandwidth, increasing latency, randomizing jitter, applying loss or creating errors
Automatically start, update and stop the test network using NE-ONE’s RESTful API

NE-ONE provides organizations with a way to create real-world network conditions in which to analyze, predict and verify application performance before deploying applications into potentially challenging network environments. The insight it provides allows businesses to effectively manage their digital products and brand, reducing deployment costs and risk, mitigating remediation expense and impact to resources at the same time as improving quality.

Organisations that would like to learn more about NE-ONE can visit booth #719 at Cisco Live, Las Vegas from Monday 13th to Thursday 16th June, 2022."

[rivaldo] 15/8/2022 07:14

Cheers hastings - as others have pointed out, that article might just as well be a tip for CLX rather than Spirent.

The difference being that at £1.6 billion Spirent's m/cap is ten times that of CLX, so it's far easier for CLX to achieve material upside/multibag.

[redartbmud] 14/8/2022 12:13

Not sure on Clx being a target for Spt.
The product development risk is all in the hands of Clx. Quite clearly the are close to Spirent and will be collaborating, but should a third party develop something better then Spirent has the option to cahnge horses.
It is a bit like Clx subcontracting manufacturing. It is a headache that you don't need and a distraction from what you do best.

[mfhmfh] 14/8/2022 11:55

hopefully a positive AGM statement this Wednesday

[hastings] 14/8/2022 07:37

Spirent tipped in the Mail on Sunday, which should arguably bode well for us!

[masurenguy] 04/8/2022 10:03

Yes, and the key figure there is a 30% increase in their order book which should positively impact Calnex forward sales ! 🙂

[rivaldo] 04/8/2022 07:39

A very strong H1 performance reported today from major customer Spirent.

Good to see 5G implementations being described as "in their infancy".....