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Cadbury Schweppes Investors - CBRY

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Stock Type
Cadbury	CBRY	London	Ordinary Share

	Price Change	Price Change %	Share Price	Last Trade
	0.00	0.00%	863.00	00:00:00

Open Price	Low Price	High Price	Close Price	Previous Close
			863.00	863.00

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Posted at 19/1/2010 08:49 by lurnin not a holder but may be of interest. Kraft had been expected to raise its bid by the deadline set by the UK Takeover Panel and many Cadbury investors said they would not contemplate an offer below 800p to 850p per share. Earlier on Monday, major Cadbury shareholder Standard Life said Kraft needed to bid over 900p per share to get its support. Both Kraft and Cadbury declined to comment. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 19/1/2010 07:54 by 2020hindsight A good day for investors, but a sad day for the UK and chocolate .... Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 18/1/2010 16:51 by kumala The bit i like is on the last two lines. K; From the daily mail on line US food giant Kraft appears poised to increase its hostile bid for Cadbury, as it looks to melt the resolve of the Dairy Milk-maker's shareholders with an 820p, or £11billion, offer. The Oreos-to-Toblerone producer was holed up at the weekend as it mulled the prospect of upping its existing 761p offer for its unwilling UK target. Cadbury has slammed that bid as 'derisory' and has sought to convince investors of its strength as an independent entity, citing good growth across its chocolate, sweets and gum divisions despite mixed trading conditions However, Kraft chief Irene Rosenfeld could face some tough opposition as a group of 14 hedge funds with Cadbury shares have already told her they are holding out for at least 850p a share Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 04/12/2009 16:12 by spob Mandelson makes shock attack on US bid for Cadbury Catherine Boyle and Dearbail Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, today made an unprecedented attack on Kraft Foods' hostile £10.1 billion bid for Cadbury's, telling the US giant to "respect" the company, its staff and its legacy. Speaking in Birmingham, where Cadbury was founded in 1824, Lord Mandelson told foreign buyers of British businesses: "If you think that you can come here and make a fast buck you will find huge opposition from the local population and from the British Government." The Business Secretary gave his stark warning after Kraft published its offer document for Cadbury. Kraft has been forced to go "hostile", which means it has approached Cadbury's shareholders directly, after the board of the British company rejected an offer. Related Links Kraft goes hostile in £9.8bn bid for Cadbury Cadbury hopes India will sweeten deal Cadbury's chief prefers Hershey to Kraft Based on Kraft's share price at December 1, the offer values each Cadbury share at 713p. It is understood some investors do not want Cadbury to engage with Kraft without an offer of 850p a share or more. Lord Mandelson said today that a foreign buyer for Cadbury would have to "respect our company, respect out workforce and respect the legacy of our company". Investors are hoping for an approach from one of Cadbury's rumoured alternative suitors, which include Hershey, the maker of Reece's Peanut Butter Cups, and Nestlé, the maker of Kit Kat, to push up the price Kraft is offering. While he said it was not up to the Government to block offers for companies, Lord Mandelson warned suitors and hedge funds, which have invested heavily in Cadbury: "We expect long-term commitment, not short term profit, to rule." In today's document, Kraft has kept the term of its original bid broadly unchanged, which offered 300p and 0.2589 Kraft shares for each Cadbury share. Shareholders have until January 5 to respond to the offer. Cadbury has a fortnight to prepare its defence to the bid. It is understood that it will focus on the company's potential for long-term growth, particularly in emerging markets. It could announce its defence at a trading update due on December 15. Cadbury's share price rose 0.2 per cent to 801.5p today, despite falling earlier in the day. Kraft has already lined up $9 billion of funding from banks, including Royal Bank of Scotland, for the bid. Irene Rosenfeld, chief executive and chairman of Kraft Foods, said: "We remain confident that the unique combination of Kraft Foods and Cadbury would create a significant growth opportunity for both businesses. That's why we believe this offer is in the best interest of both companies' shareholders. "Our offer is fully financed, represents a substantial premium to Cadbury's unaffected share price and provides both immediate value certainty and meaningful longer-term upside potential." Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 15/11/2009 12:51 by topvest Starting to hot-up with these comments in the press. Nick Train's comments are interesting; The Trust has had a nicely timed fillip from two of our long-standing holdings. Following AG Barr's good results its share price responded rising 21% in the month but Cadbury was the best performer, up 38%, following an announcement of a bid approach from Kraft. Kraft's bid was not only pleasing in its contribution to performance but it also provided an important validation of our core working hypothesis that exceptional and durable businesses tend to be undervalued by most investors most of the time. Our longer standing shareholders know that we have held Cadbury since the Trust began and they will have been bombarded with all manner of comments in previous monthlies justifying its ownership and lamenting on why others could not recognise the value we saw in the company. As a reminder, we believe that it has always been undervalued and remains so today, although by less than ever before. Why? First, we have always considered that other investors have not appreciated just how rare a franchise such as Cadbury is, with its wide range of chocolate, confectionery and gum brands many of which have been around - and we anticipate will continue to be around - for generations. Surprisingly few quoted companies meet this test of durability, as evidenced by the high attrition rate for constituents of equity indices our analysis suggests that over 20 year periods only 20% of companies in major market indices survive in the same form. Next, it is important to recognise that its rarity and survivorship is a product of the ability of the company to grow its cash flow in real terms consistently over such multi-year, actuarial time horizons. Over the 34 years from 1975 to 2009 (longest data available) Cadbury grew its real dividends (a good proxy for cash flow) by 5.7% per annum, a exceptional performance when one considers that over the 50 years from 1950-2001 the real growth in dividends in the UK market was approximately 2.3% per annum. During this period there was only one cut in the annual dividend, in 2002, and even then dividends exceeded their previous levels by the next year. And finally, we think it is wrong to apply an equity risk premium to a discounted cash flow valuation of a company such as Cadbury, as most other investors explicitly or implicitly must do. Why should Cadbury be valued at a yield premium to a longterm UK gilt, when it promises - and has had a history of delivering over many years through good times and bad - a growing stream of real income. Events like Kraft's bid for Cadbury confirm to us that there are other investors who recognise such exceptional stores of value. Kraft knows a lot about the value of brands and it is a welcome validation of our hypothesis when such an informed corporate buyer sees the same value in an asset we own. And clearly the full value of Cadbury is above the initial bid price; probably Kraft's tactical first shot. In all likelihood Kraft have budgeted for an uplift from the initial offer in order to win the bid and, even then, in order to buy the company and extract value from the investment for their shareholders, prudence would suggest that the final offer must be pitched at a discount to what they believe is the true full value. For what it is worth, we think Cadbury is worth about £10 per share versus the £5.70 it was trading at before the bid. Contrary to our prediction in the last monthly, there have been no further developments on Cadbury. But next month there will be, as Kraft has until 9th November to submit a formal bid or withdraw for six months. Also, Cadbury have a trading update next week which should give us clues on how the business is doing. He thinks Cadbury is worth about £10 a share. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 10/11/2009 15:00 by freemanure2 MoneyWeek viewpoint:- Apologies if this was posted earlier by someone else. Market hopes are stretched far beyond reality The Cadbury / Kraft bid saga shows just how far market hopes are stretched beyond reality. Right up to yesterday's bid deadline, analysts and investors were clearly expecting Kraft to pull some rabbit out of the hat that would give them an excuse to drive the confectioner's share price higher from its already optimistic level of around 760p. Instead, Kraft came back with an offer that suggested that, frankly, they can take Cadbury or leave it. The bid terms were exactly the same, which because Kraft's share price has fallen since the original bid was made meant that the actual per share value had fallen, from the equivalent of 745p to 717p. Yet, the Cadbury share price is still hovering pretty much exactly where it was yesterday. You can read more about the background to the story, and what we reckon Cadbury shareholders should do now, in my colleague David Stevenson's blog on the topic, here. What's perhaps more interesting about this bid battle is what it says about the bigger picture and the market's psychology right now. When this deal was first announced, the excitement in the City pages was palpable. This was the return of big deals, a sign that the recovery was on track. Suddenly, Cadbury was a sleek national treasure, being stalked by this hideous, lumpen, American manufacturer of stringy cheese. Never mind that the confectioner had been trading at less than £6 a share before Kraft made its approach. Sure, it's easy to uncover a new-found appreciation for something when it looks as though it's going to be taken away from you. And Cadbury's may well be worth a lot more than Kraft is offering, over the long run which is a good argument for keeping it independent. The truth: Kraft can't afford to bid much higher But there's a big difference between what you believe an asset is fundamentally worth, and what someone else is willing to pay for it. And the truth is that Kraft can't really afford to go that much higher. As Rob Cox points out on Breakingviews.com, Kraft wouldn't have gone through with the formal offer if it wasn't serious about bidding. And there was no reason for Kraft chairman Irene Rosenfeld to up the offer in the absence of any rival bids this "would have amounted to [Kraft] negotiating against itself". So there may well be a higher bid, or one with a bigger cash component, awaiting Cadbury's shareholders further down the line. There's also the temptation, once a bid battle kicks off, to get suckered into ego-driven over-paying. When bosses lose out on a deal, they tend to end up with egg on their faces, even if it's the most sensible option. But practically speaking, there's not much chance of egotistic overpaying in this case. For one thing, the highly value-conscious Warren Buffett is a key Kraft shareholder, and he won't be keen to overbid for Cadbury's. And, as Cox points out, "Kraft can't raise its bid by much without destroying value or losing its investment-grade debt rating." That's the last thing Kraft wants to do right now, with the global economy in the state it's in. For example, the reason its offer for Cadbury is worth less now, is because Kraft's third-quarter sales were disappointingly weak, sending its share price down. The group also cut its sales forecasts for the year. You don't want to overstretch your balance sheet in that sort of environment. The City might be betting on the good times coming back, but companies like Kraft which can see how badly the consumer particularly in the US is suffering, have to take a more cautious view. That suggests that getting the bid up to even 800p might be a stretch. And persuading Cadbury's investors to accept that may also be tough. Cadbury's shareholders should take profits now So as David suggests, if you bought Cadbury's before the bid was launched, taking your profits now might be the safest option. If you have bought it since, hoping for a better deal, you might want to hang on for the next phase of talks. But bear in mind that there's an awful lot of potential downside if the deal falls through. Cadbury's shareholders might be talking up its value right now, but I suspect their new-found affection for the stock will vanish as rapidly as it appeared if no more suitors appear on the horizon. DYOR / Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 08/11/2009 13:44 by talon13 The BS is flowing thick and fast now........... CHICAGO (AP) - The clock is ticking on a Monday deadline for Kraft Foods Inc. to make a formal offer for British candy maker Cadbury PLC. Kraft, which makes Oreo cookies, Nabisco crackers and its namesake cheese, on Tuesday told investors to keep an eye on its filings - a clue that a bid may be right around the corner. Monday is the last day permitted for Kraft to "put up or shut up," according to U.K. regulators. If Kraft doesn't make a formal bid by then, it must walk away for six months. Cadbury spurned Kraft's cash-and-stock offer in September. It was then worth $16.7 billion. It would now be worth less because Kraft's shares have fallen in value. Kraft previously proposed paying 300 pence in cash and 0.2589 new Kraft shares per Cadbury share, valuing Cadbury shares at 745 pence. That's below Cadbury's closing stock price of 758 pence on Friday. Kraft first made its offer public in September, but its original proposal was made and rejected earlier in the summer. Since making the offer on Sept. 7, Kraft's shares have declined 3.8 percent, reducing the value of the stock portion of its initial offer. Since no other competitors have emerged to bid on Cadbury, it's unlikely that Kraft right now will offer a high price, said Standard & Poor's equity analyst Tom Graves. "I think Kraft will make an offer for Cadbury to keep the door open and follow things up with a higher offer later on," Graves said. Some analysts speculated that The Hershey Co. could team up with Swiss food company Nestle SA to make a joint competitive offer for Cadbury, but no proposal has emerged. Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst Christopher Growe expects Kraft to bid before the deadline but said in an investors note it needs to be higher to win over Cadbury shareholders, ranging from 800 pence to 850 pence a share. Cadbury said that Kraft's offer wasn't high enough and didn't make strategic sense, but Kraft sees the deal as a chance to save costs and boost market share in both the lucrative candy business and in emerging markets. If both companies combine, it would create a company that generates at least $50 billion in total revenue. Kraft is the largest food company in the U.S. and No. 2 worldwide to Nestle, and Nestle would still be the largest even if Kraft adds Cadbury. Kraft reported a lower quarterly profit earlier this week because of a big one-time gain a year ago and a 6 percent decline in revenue but still lifted its yearly earnings outlook. Kraft, which is based in Northfield, Ill., also makes Maxwell House coffee and Oscar Mayer meats, while Cadbury makes Dentyne gum in addition to chocolate. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 27/10/2009 09:03 by kumala The battle lines are drawn and the phoney war is almost over. Cadbury expects adversary Kraft to formally launch its £10bn bid for the confectioner at the end of next week. And when it does, the British maker of Dairy Milk and Flake is preparing to defend itself vigorously. It has drawn up extensive plans aimed at repelling Kraft's Irene Rosenfeld and is holing up for a protracted bid battle, according to a person familiar with the situation. It includes a concerted shareholder charm offensive and a set-piece analyst briefing laying out in detail its mandate for independence That Cadbury boss Todd Stitzer is ready to make such a robust defence scotches the suspicion that he would cede control once a realistic deal was placed on the table. Kraft is offering 745p a share in a mix of cash and equity. Analysts say Rosenfeld and her team must up the ante to closer to 850p a share and raise the cash element to stand any chance of success. The Toblerone maker is giving its third-quarter earnings update next Tuesday after which it is likely to turn its attention to a full-blooded bid. There is no sense the company is ready to walk away from the deal. And in fact it is putting the finishing touches to the financing it needs to acquire Cadbury. Two sources say Kraft is unlikely to show its hand before Tuesday. It is hoping robust results would drive up the share price and bolster the equity part of any bid. But it will have to move fast to meet the 'put up or shut up' deadline imposed by the Takeover Panel. Under City rules Kraft has to table an offer or walk away by November 9. Observers say Kraft should dispense with the City convention of leaving the bid until the last day so that it does not look like the takeover plan has been stitched together at the last minute. Kraft has deliberately maintained radio silence throughout the bid process as it wants to make the race for control of Cadbury 'the dullest ever'. Certainly there have been no fireworks from Hershey or Nestle, mooted suitors for Cadbury. And Kraft will hope this remains the case. Around 5pc of the share register of Cadbury (down 9.50p to 776.5p) are hedge funds who bought into the stock hoping for a knockout deal. But it's not just short-term investors who are looking for a knockout bid. Long-term investor, New York-based Gamco Asset Management, lined up yesterday to lend its support to a Kraft offer. Read more: Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 18/10/2009 15:05 by kumala Google declared itself pretty happy with its performance, reporting 7pc year-over-year revenue growth in their third quarter figures last week. Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google, told investors on a conference call after the results had been announced that he was "very optimistic about the future" and that the figures were "all good news". He then proceeded to run through the holy trinity of shareholder contentment tight control over costs, plans for new "small and large" acquisitions and the development of new products and markets supporting growth in operating profit margins. You could almost hear the smile in his voice. Will Carr's, the chairman of Cadbury, and CEO Todd Stitzer's conversations with Cadbury shareholders post Wednesday be as bold? There's a lot riding on it. Kraft has been pretty quiet since it announced its 745p a share offer last month. It is keeping its powder dry until after Wednesday when it will make the decision on its takeover strategy and show how serious it is about snapping up Cadbury. Kraft may have felt its hand strengthen last week. Maybe Irene Rosenfeld allowed herself her own little smile when she read, as I'm sure she did, the JP Morgan research note suggesting that Cadbury's sales were below the company's target of 4-6pc revenue growth. It was reported that "some room for disappointment" was the judgment of fund managers with positions in Cadbury. That smile, though, may be premature. Senior figures close to the issue say that the Cadbury board are unanimous that the present offer is nowhere near what is required to get them or the shareholders interested; 745p was described by one source as "dead on arrival". Another believes that Kraft will have to "go hostile" or make a far higher offer in the battle, such is the implacable position of Carr and Stitzer to what is on the table at the moment. Two figures will be pored over on Wednesday. The 4-6 range on revenue growth (will Cadbury be nearer the 4 or 6pc in that spread, can it push the envelope to one that is sitting between 5 and 7pc?) and the progress towards the target of "mid-teens" margin growth by 2011. Stitzer needs to be clear that means 15pc or higher, not 13pc. All the noises are that Cadbury will surprise on the upside. The company has a long tradition of exceeding expectations when it announces its results. The JP Morgan note may have been helpful, depressing expectations ahead of the statement. Stitzer gave a strong performance at the Institute of Grocery Distribution conference last week (I'm sure like the Baftas, but with more bananas and Cup-a-Soup), saying that the business had "incredible momentum". Expect to see a hardening on the positive side for Cadbury come Wednesday. In a way Cadbury's success is now its burden and even if Kraft fails (and at 745p they surely will) others will circle. Last week Panmure Gordon's Equity Research recommended that Unilever should throw its hat into the ring for this "attractive asset". Pure-play confectionary businesses with 6pc per annum sales growth and expanding markets are not easy to come by. Shareholders have a simple question. If Kraft is rebuffed, how is Stitzer going to deliver higher share value? One source said that he wouldn't be "pulling rabbits out of a hat". The demerger is done, the overhead costs stripped out and the new products launched. They have to build a convincing alternative growth strategy for shareholders based on "white space" expansion, filling the bits of the global map they don't yet serve. That means pushing Cadbury into new territories in South America, the Indian subcontinent and Africa that is likely to mean some small "in-fill" acquisitions rather than big expansive buys. It also needs to explain how new product lines will come on stream and improve margins. One pleasing thing is that Cadbury has not gone parochial. Carr has told colleagues that there "is no Union Jack in this defence". For a company with pretensions on the global stage that is absolutely right; talk about the values embedded in the history of 200-year-old company, sure, and be clear how that value adds to shareholder value and earnings. But this is a global battle and should be treated as such. If it gets the figures and the messages right on Wednesday, Cadbury will be able to show investors that the 745p offer is finished. Something towards 850p will be the entry ticket to a discussion. North of 850p and this will get interesting. By Kamal Ahmed Published: 7:50PM BST 17 Oct 2009 So wednesday is going to beinteresting when the Figs are produced, mmmmmm K Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 14/9/2009 12:08 by wad collector Yesterdays Mail Soaring Cadbury has further to go Midas recommended Cadbury at the beginning of the year when the shares were 574p. Today they are 775.5p, up 35%. The price surge follows an unexpected, unsolicited offer for the company from Kraft. The US food giant said last Monday that it wanted to buy Cadbury for 300p a share in cash and 0.25 Kraft shares, equivalent to 745p per Cadbury share. The offer valued the company at £10.2bn. The stock soared instantly, but Cadbury chief executive Todd Stitzer rejected the offer and leading investors said they would demand a considerably higher price. Their reaction makes eminent sense. Cadbury makes some of the bes-tloved chocolate brands in the world, including Creme Egg, Crunchie and Dairy Milk. It also owns Trident chewing gum and premium products such as Green & Black's organic chocolate. It leads the market in at least 20 countries and Stitzer is in the middle of a three-year programme designed to enhance profits. Brokers expect sales to rise from £5.4bn in 2008 to £5.9bn this year, while profits are forecast to increase 18% to £665m. Large shareholders believe a merger of Kraft and Cadbury is logical. Kraft is the second-biggest food maker in the world, with products such as Terry's All Gold, Toblerone, Philadelphia and Dairylea. Combining the two firms could save hundreds ofms of pounds and improve overall growth prospects. But Kraft will have to pay more, otherwise it risks being pipped to the post by a rival. Midas verdict: Investors who bought last January have been richly rewarded over the past few days, but there is almost certainly more to come. Brokers reckon Cadbury is worth at least 800p a share and possibly much more. Investors should sit back and watch events as they unfold. This bid battle is only just beginning. Hold. That's advice I have decided to follow. Read Full Thread Reply

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