Bushveld Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[vauch] 30/1/2019 11:15

nvhltd. is it to quiet for you.

Wow a fantastic set of figures this will be in the millions per share in no time at all

[jc2706] 30/1/2019 10:53

They have all posted if not here. Does BBN ever post here? Do you consider BBN a ramper? His input always seems to be reasoned.

[nvhltd] 30/1/2019 10:51

Not surprisingly a few of the main rampers are hiding this morning on LSE:

Nickderby. Author of the repeated long list of good news due.

Richken. Master cut and paste specialist

BBN

[jc2706] 30/1/2019 10:12

Oh. I am not sure what we are disagreeing about to be honest!

[katylied] 30/1/2019 10:08

We must agree to disagree... Hmmm, where have I heard that before?

[jc2706] 30/1/2019 10:06

KatyLied,

Mokopane is still awaiting a mining licence. What can they do realistically without that licence other than make plans for when that has been delivered. You are right that a simple ore offtake agreement would be a simple (if less profitable) process in the short term for Mokopane and the language suggests that this is what is being planned. A best case scenario would be capital, operational plans and offtake agreements already in place such that delivery of the mining licence would bring about a short turnaround. However, we have no evidence in place to currently support this so it is probably best not to include Mokopane in our thoughts too greatly at this point in time.

[smishman] 30/1/2019 09:49

What's unravelling is nvhld's £500 short.
Sad AF.

[jc2706] 30/1/2019 09:10

I confess that I expected a larger drop than this. Just goes to show how different people read a RNS in different ways.

[jc2706] 30/1/2019 09:06

nvhltd,

If you have shares in the company I assume that you are selling at a rate of knots now, given that 'the master plan is unravelling'! :-)

[jc2706] 30/1/2019 09:04

jakecat1,

The market tends to look at future rather than historic profitability so indications of production problems and expansion delays are going to be suggestions of issues in the future that will be reflected now. The one problem BMN doesn't have currently is low profitability but this is due to the high Vanadium price (in Q4 but still relatively high) and controlled costs.

If I am reading the report correctly, it would suggest that, whilst the issues have been identified and there is a zero capex route to achieving a higher production level (although somewhat lower than nameplate capacity), these have not yet been implemented as the process only completed in December. I suspect from the statements that grade control is a significant part of this, which has been understood for some time and is the basis for the drilling that has been carried out at Vametco over the last few months. Given the experience on the ground at Vametco as well as the considerable resource, I am expecting this issue to be resolved although time will tell as to when.

A rate of 3400mtv would seem achievable but it is not clear at this stage when. Given that the plant is currently operating at 2400mtv I am expecting 2019 guidance of 2800mtv on the basis that they have indicated higher levels than 2018. That would give room for positive surprises whilst managing expectations.

The biggest mover of the share price this year is still likely to be the Vanadium price with room for 'blue sky' surprises should there be a Mokopane licence award, etc. Unlike others on the LSE board, I am not expecting a huge amount from BE at this stage and still see Vanadium sales as the profitable aspect of any success in this area rather than the UET machines themselves which will have relatively low margins.

[nvhltd] 30/1/2019 08:56

Jake: You really need to read the report again.

I make 4 out of 5 missed quarterly missed production targets.

The last 3 quarters have included maintenance issues.

The 2 upgrades haven’t been successful and more work is required.

Phase 3 looks like it’s being delayed. Bolgas was correct in his interruption of the last RNS on the subject while the rampers were saying it’s being brought forwards to take advantage of the expected demand increases.

Mokopane is now just a footnote with no news information.

Taking into account all the above where are we going to get the vanadium from to supply an electrolyte plant by the end of the year?

The master plan is unraveling.

[dmitribollokov] 30/1/2019 08:43

Keep drinking the kool-aid jake.

[jakecat1] 30/1/2019 08:39

Daft MM initial over reaction to what is really a very positive update. Increased profitability is all that matters tbh. Temporary slowdown in production... which has been resolved = 10% drop in share price!?!?! Plain daft. Great buying opportunity though!

[jc2706] 30/1/2019 08:36

I think knuttie's attention was on the EBITDA figures but you are right, it is impossible to ignore the rest of the report which has several negatives.

[jc2706] 30/1/2019 08:34

I think the focus is on not achieving the Q4 production guidance levels owing to the issues with the plant operation Vauch. The profitability for 2018 is historical and the market is looking forward to what 2019 will bring and readjusting to the lowered expectations.

You have to add to that the fact that the nameplate capacity for Phase 2 is unlikely to be achieved and Phase 3 looks like it has been put back at least a year.

On the basis of these things it is hardly surprising that the share price is taking a bit of a knock, despite the historical and continuing profitability.

[vauch] 30/1/2019 08:29

Well their you go a company that is making too much profit

[jc2706] 30/1/2019 08:03

Sorry? What are you referring to?

[belgraviaboy] 30/1/2019 07:51

Hilarious - pages of bickering but not a word about today's production report.

[jc2706] 30/1/2019 07:50

Well, not the production volume we were looking for or was forecast well into the quarter. Unplanned maintenance has been blamed but the performance of the operation as a whole is clearly falling well below capacity. The upgrades seem to have resulted in little benefit so far. Whilst it is good to see that they are seriously trying to do something about it, there is no doubt that this is a poor performance from a production perspective.

On the positive side, we see in this quarter the tremendous profitability inherent in the operation despite the low production levels. In addition, the fact that they have really reduced costs (helped by the fall in the Rand) despite the fall in production is impressive. But let's not paper over the disappointing production numbers.

[plat hunter] 29/1/2019 20:42

Thanks Knuttie..Intraday boasting is exactly what I wanted and was expecting from personalities like yours.I bet you're not even married... Just a sympathy story to garner support for your insidious objectives.