Bushveld Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[wolf_in_the_bath] 20/8/2017 08:49

Timber!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Wolf of Wolfahampton .....

[vauch] 19/8/2017 13:02

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[wolf_in_the_bath] 19/8/2017 12:46

Knickers and pigpog you imbecile's this has F ing TANKED and more to come the wolf expects ? In my humble opinion as a wolf : D Wolf of Wolverhampton .....

[vauch] 19/8/2017 07:52

f the article banded around is not true the co should suspend the share pending prosecution of those responsible for illegal shorting attempt,

This would do two things it would show how manipulation is rife on AIM and on re trading cost shorter a packet

[sherlock2020] 19/8/2017 01:02

There's a good summary of the increase in Vametco production here:-

[wolf_in_the_bath] 19/8/2017 00:14

This has F ing TANKED laughing out loud ! I'm gonna have a great weekend now ; D Oh Hazel I can't hear you ? Nice pair of shorts today , still summer .Wolf of Wolfahampton .....

[manni786] 18/8/2017 21:05

Can confirm this is old news. Mini protest that abandoned before it even lasted beyond 12 hours.

[sherlock2020] 18/8/2017 20:57

Fake (and old) news alas Karolina. They burnt a couple of tyres on one of the roads and then disappeared - the mine was never shut - we phoned them at the time.

[vauch] 16/8/2017 20:31

Fortune 12 minuets today
hxxp://www.corelondon.tv/bushveld-minerals-thriving-vanadium-growth/

[smishman] 16/8/2017 13:18

Wolf's sad existence just got a good deal sadder. Shame.

[neilyb675] 16/8/2017 12:15

A good post✔

[katylied] 16/8/2017 12:06

Divmad – I think the 2016-17 report is the most interesting annual-report BMN have ever produced, but I expect the 2017-18 report to be even more interesting (we should travel in hope). The Vametco purchase was inspired. Credit where credit is due. I personally also liked the UIS purchase, though the payment terms were rather weird. Since flotation in 2012, up to this last year and with the exception of the cash liberated from LMR, the company had achieved nothing but stalled projects in a commodities downturn that had no clear resolution in sight. This last year has been transformational and in marked contrast to BMN’s OBT-stable sibling PRG (diamonds) which delisted (effectively bust) at the end of 2015. A fate, AIM investors are only too familiar with.

An important aspect of commodity cycles is that you really MUST make hay while the sun shines. Are you familiar with BHR (now delisted)? They had the very first coal-mine (albeit small) in the Tete region of Mozambique. The coal boom arrived, new owners set about developing the mine to export coking-coal. Investor money went into wash-plants and transport initiatives (and director pockets), but somehow the BoD failed to ever deliver anything. The years of the boom came and went and by the end BHR had still not exported a single tonne of coking-coal. They ran out of money and went bust. Investors were rightly disgusted.

BMN’s interest in Vametco is a superb acquisition, production is absolutely key. However, what of the other assets/projects? First off, the PQ resource (iron, titanium and phosphate) barely gets a mention. This is a huge asset, but very high Titanium content requires a somewhat specialist partner and the iron-ore market is still not sufficiently recovered, and the mess that is SA politics also puts people off. I do wonder about the phosphate though. Wouldn’t that have qualified as low hanging fruit? Perhaps it is left bundled as an added lure. Pity, currently there seems very little likelihood of further movement with this huge asset. Still, ‘one day Rodney’...

In the interests of making hay while the sun shines, the length of time it is taking to get licences should be a concern. Mining minister Zwane is doing all he can to wreck the mining industry, a process started by his predecessors. In Zwane’s case, if it doesn’t benefit the Guptas, it is simply outside his brief. The Chamber of Mines wants him gone and now, so do some unions. Job losses are mounting. Zwane is a disaster, probably the worst mines minister ever.

According to the annual report, BMN still waits for a new-order licence for Mokopane (applied for in 2015) and has not yet seen the title transfer for Brits completed. Neither of these projects will progress until these obstacles are overcome. On that note, has UIS (in Namibia) had government approval? An RNS stated that the shares (41 million) had been issued. As I understood it, the terms of the UIS purchase do not complete until approval is obtained. I did wonder, with all the recent block shares-trades at BMN, if some of our new friends at UIS were ignoring any lock-ins and quietly dumping into the market. Last time I looked, the major investor list hadn’t been updated since Jan 2017. 41Million shares is about 5% of the company, but I suppose no one party may have received 3%+ to ever be included on the list. So we may just never know.

Notable that VBKom are still around. I misunderstood the MOU that was signed last year. I thought they were being offered 50% of Greenhills. Clearly post UIS that cannot happen, but I now realise it was only 50% of the particular ‘tin project’ under discussion. In anycase that MOU has since expired, so no doubt the continuing talks have yet to determine actual terms of engagement. It seems to me, that BMN+Erongo may also need an operator for UIS. Perhaps VBKom are discussing this as well. At first, I thought the report indicated a Greenhills flotation in 2018-2019, when it referred to the next financial year. However, the report consistantly refers to the current year as the period of the report. So that would make the flotation target for before March 2018. I would be surprised if it happened the remainder of 2017, but it seems early 2018 is now a good bet. UIS will need cash for development, so the sooner the better. I assume they mean flotation on AIM.

The annual report talks about other possible brown-field site acquisitions. I hope not. Certainly not anything as substantial as Vanchem. My view is that the company needs to monetise the assets it already has, not continue to spend on yet more financial burdens. We have Vametco as a production facility. Much beter to ease out Yellow Dragon, than take on more sites. Really, since we still have no idea who Yellow Dragon are, we need to wonder just how vulnerable BMN is, should any conflicts of interest ever arise with Yellow Dragon?

They also say in the report that Mokopane could be developed to export raw concentrate. The same can probably be said about Brits. The Vametco mine appears to be good for a further 25+ years. Highly unlikely this commodity cycle will last that long, so that is more than adequate. Over and above that, feeding raw concentrate into the boom, looks like an excellent idea. Again, I am not crazy about empire building. Some AIM investors like to speculate about the size of their future dividends. However, most AIM investors will be more interested in capital gains (and the sooner the better). So once again, while there is plenty to speculate about in the report, what I really want to see is optimal hay-making while the sun is still shinning.

As I have said many times before, I am not a fan of the LMR Imalato IPP/coal project. The report states that since 2008, $10milion has been spent on the project. That is 8+ years. It can be added that there have been about 3 different previous owners, all of whom eventually gave up. This project has always seemed like a good idea... until it wasn’t. I’m really not sure anything has changed. I have followed other IPP projects in Africa. They always have to put their future into the hands of state run utilities. On paper it can look good, but in Africa these utilities are always basket-cases. They are always loss-making, but because they generate cash-flow, corrupt politicians cannot resist them (Eskom itself, is no exception). To sign a power deal, the utility will require some 3rd party to underwrite agreed offtake payments for years into the future. Nobody will invest the millions needed to build a power plant, if the state cannot guarantee future payments. Meanwhile, to build new transmission infrastructure they always require foreign donors (they have no funds of their own). What donor wants their name associated with a coal plant in the environmental paradise of Madagascar? It just makes so much more sense to build solar plants (and VRFBs) than thermal, and guess what, Sinohydro’s track record is mostly not about thermal.


OK, these are just some musings (since you asked) that I shall certainly deny should future events turn out rather differently. :o) The current Annual report is a must read for genuine investors, much more so than any previous one. Lots of info, lots of possibilities, lots of questions to speculate about. Finally, the future for BMN (and investors) is looking much brighter…