Bullabulling Share Discussion Threads

[temujiin] 16/6/2014 20:46

Sat, might be worth removing the above statement

'16Jun - NGF increase offer to 8c per share (4.4p)' to

16Jun - NGF increase offer to 8c per share (4.4p) ... but only if Zijn can convince another 14% of BGL SH's to give up all the upside potential in the next 14 days as otherwise you'll be getting just 3.9p.

[rich pickings] 16/6/2014 15:53

LF, maybe the game is like Chinese whispers (& not wishing to be offensive to the Chinese).
The bid at the beginning is not what it is at the end. (& normally it never is so 8c is just the means to the end...)

[londonfinancial] 16/6/2014 14:51

When you think about it this is one strange offer -

Nobody wants to sell at 7 cents , who is going to sell without even the guarantee that they will get 8 cents .

How many institutions have 14% which would guarantee the 8cents ......none ..

Friends keep coming into my head ......

[rich pickings] 16/6/2014 14:09

Norton have 16.41% as of this morning. They need approx 46.75m shares to get to 30% in the next 2 weeks.

IMO, no chance unless only if some big boys sell.
Resolute have 20.25m (6.75m bought at 5c & 13.5m from selling land next to BGL) They can sell at a profit - but they can also hold out for more.

Baker Steel have 35.4m, but acquired at very high prices - They will probably want to hold out, otherwise take a big hit. Surely, as they have been here for years, why sell out now, especially as it goes against the Independent valuation?

And why does Norton only want 30% - surely they want 50%+, ...but really 90% for compulsory purchase.

[retailronnie] 16/6/2014 14:00

It could be an independent hedge fund buying on speculation/information the bid will increase.

LF has really good point. Chinese have given them incentive to keep buying knowing they can get 8c while we don't have that information. Keep watching the vols.

[temujiin] 16/6/2014 14:00

Norton Gold Fields has conditionally increased its takeover offer for Bullabulling Gold (LON:BGL) to 8c per cent from 7c.



The new offer will kick in if Chinese-owned Norton obtains a relevant interest in 30% or more by close of trading on June 30, otherwise the original 7c will continue to apply.

Norton said will not increase the offer price any further. It currently has a relevant interest of about 16% in Bullabulling.

The directors of Bullabulling repeatedly rejected the initial 7c offer, which tthey said was well below the true worth of its flagship gold project in Western Australia.

In a statement in May, the company said: "The board is confident that, after the infill drilling programme has been completed, the majority of the current resource will be converted to a substantial maiden Mining Reserve."

[londonfinancial] 16/6/2014 13:54

Cannot see them walking away with 16-17% but we shall see .

[temujiin] 16/6/2014 13:45

Cheers Sat.
Grum, I agree with ya that's it's unlikely NGF are behind the buying activity in Oz, however don't see NGF getting anywhere near 30%. Since the start they've managed only 10% with the 7c offer. They haven't upped the bid and it's extremely unlikely anyone accepting the offer between now and 2 weeks Monday will see 8c as Zijn need another 14%.

As for dilution, I think 20 - 22%% ish will be enough to get DFS completed and a maiden 2.5 to 3m oz gold Resserve. I personnaly am more than happy for that sort of dilution for the increase in asset value.

[londonfinancial] 16/6/2014 13:43

GRUM3STILL

Because someone bought them that we do know - Who ? We don't .

[grum3still] 16/6/2014 13:35

LF. sorry. disagree with you on that one. Why would Norton get a friend to bid 0.1 of a cent higher than the official bid when there are clearly sellers in Australia. I think some will sell at 8c and there is a risk 30% will be achieved.

It should encourage BGL directors to sort out funding or a white night to show up.

Otherwise I think this will go to the Chinese because so far I have seen no credible plan to fund this project and therefore have to assume we will all be seriously diluted.

[londonfinancial] 16/6/2014 13:03

HMM


Those friends that have been picking up at 7.1 or 7.2 would not be tempted to offload at a 10 % profit which will bring them up to the 30% .....

Those friends might even buy more at 7.5-7.7 ...

Clever Chinese IMHO

[temujiin] 16/6/2014 12:55

Richie, as I read it, this is the best and final offer so they now can no longer up the offer. 7c is all you will get by accepting unless several ii's cave in, which they wont imo.

Zijn may come back with another offer after this one but have to wait a period before doing so. In the meantime they will pick off the weaker hands in the market if they can. When the dust settles I think Zijn may get 17 - 19%. I'm not selling.

[sat69] 16/6/2014 12:49

Tem - Thanks for poining that out. I can see that the 8c is conditional upon them receiving 30% interest. However, I wonder how the offer document will be worded. If it states 'Accept 8c but you may only get 7c if NGF do not receive 30% interest' I will definitely vote 'non'.

[richie32] 16/6/2014 12:48

Tem, it seems the real bid will be around 10 or 11 cents as we thought all along.

Meanwhile the Middle East troubles look fairly long term to me (sadly) and pog is going up IMHO

[rich pickings] 16/6/2014 12:47

Hi Sat69
You can buy at 4.25p but probably only in small quantities before the price goes up. The 4.45p is only guaranteed if Norton's bid is successful at 8c by 30th June.

But I still think they will have to up the offer to get anywhere a controlling stake. And, as they are effectively (backed by) the no1 Gold producer in China - they will pay more in order to replenish their reserves and maintain production for the future.

[temujiin] 16/6/2014 12:40

Sat, the 8c is only 'if' they get 30%+ by the end of this month. Take it as read that accepting their offer will get you just 7c/share.

It's important people understand NGF haven't increased thier bid at all as things stand! They have no hope imo of achieving 30%

[sat69] 16/6/2014 12:25

Hmmm. I didn't appreciate in terms of pence the offer has been increased from 3.9p to 4.45p. I may have to reconsider my stance.

I can't understand the current current spread of 3.75-4.25? Surely I can buy as many as I want at 4.25p and sell to NGF at 4.45p?

[rich pickings] 16/6/2014 10:38

Zijin needs to acquire assets to maintain it's position as China's no 1 Gold producer...AND -their "Results also show Zijin's commitment in expanding mineral resources and reserves in order to ensure steady and sustainable production"

They obviously want to do this as cheaply as possible.

DON'T LET THEM!!!

Zijin Mining Group Announces Full Year 2013 Results
31 Mar 2014
On March 28, 2014, Zijin Mining Group (hereafter"Zijin" or"the Company") published its 2013 full year results. At the backdrop of market downturn in global mining industry, Zijin achieved a sales revenue of 49.772 billion Yuan(equivalent to US$ 8.094 billion), representing an increase of 2.8% over the previous year; under the impact of a slump in gold price, a number of gold producers faced huge losses while Zijin still obtained comparatively fine profits. The net profit for the year 2013 attributable to shareholders of the parent was 2.125 billion Yuan (equivalent to US$ 345.585 million); the operating cash flow was 8.842 billion Yuan (equivalent to US$ 1.438 billion), an increase of 63.52%. In addition, the total assets of the company in 2013 amounted to 66.898 billion Yuan (equivalent to US$ 10.879 billion), decreased by 0.68%; the net assets attributable to shareholders of the parent was 27.612 billion Yuan (equivalent to US$ 4.490 billion), down by 2.02%.

In 2013, Zijin produced 31.24 tonnes of mined gold(equivalent to 1,004,389oz), accounting for 8.9% of the total amount in China; produced 125,060 tonnes of mined copper, accounting for 7.05% of the total amount in China. The strong results reflect the progress the company is making and the leading position it maintains in national mining industry.

Results also show Zijin's commitment in expanding mineral resources and reserves in order to ensure steady and sustainable production. In 2013, significant breakthroughs have been made in resource exploration, including 61 tonnes of gold(equivalent to 1,961,194oz), 402,000 tonnes of copper, 1.91 million tonnes of lead and zinc, 32,000 tonnes of molybdenum, 21,000 tonnes of tungsten, 216 tonnes of silver and 23.48 million of iron ore. Meanwhile, the company also reported its production plan for main products in 2014: 34 tonnes of mined gold (equivalent to 1,093,125oz), 160 tonnes of mined silver, 140,000 tonnes of mined copper, 160,000 tonnes of mined lead and zinc, 2.75 million tonnes of Iron ore(including Iron calcine), 60 tonnes of refined gold (equivalent to 1,929,043oz), 150 tonnes of refined silver, 220,000 tonnes of refined copper and 200,000 tonnes of refined zinc.

Besides, Zijin steadily promotes its internationalization. In terms of M&A in overseas projects, Zijin's majority-owned company, Norton Gold Fields in Australia successfully acquired all the stake and of Kalgoorlie Mining Company in Australia; Zijin entered into a share purchase agreement with NKWE, which is listed on ASX, and completed first tranche of convertible bond transaction; the company set up an overseas mining fund, a joint venture with Sprott Inc(a Canadian fund management company) and America Modern Resources Investment Management Group, testing overseas mining investment. In addition, some of Zijin's oversea projects will be put into operation in 2014. The Russia Tuva Multi-Metal project(phase I) will start production by the end of 2014, which is expected to produce over 1.5 tonnes of gold (equivalent to 48,226 oz)and 50,000 tonnes of zinc concentrate for Zijin.

Norton Gold Fields performs quite well in safety, production and cost management after acquisition by Zijin. The cash cost decreased from AU$1239/oz at the end of 2012 to AU$960/oz at the end of 2013. its 2013 annual net profit was AU$22.47 million.

[hiddendepths] 16/6/2014 10:30

Final offer for now maybe. After a period, I'm sure they'll have another stab. Why would they want a small and hostile percentage of BGL?

Of course they could sell on their stake to some other predator. It would be useful launchpad for a successful bid.

[rich pickings] 16/6/2014 10:26

Chances are they will up the offer as
1)They will not get to 30% by end June
2)they won't want a minority interest.
They are backed by Zijin
Zijin is one of the largest mining companies in China, with a market capitalisation at 12 July 2012 of c.A$11.0 billion. A Shanghai and Hong Kong listed public company, Zijin has extensive interests across a broad range of commodities, including gold, copper, zinc, lead, tungsten and iron ore.

14 May 2014
Zijin Ranks No.1 in National(China) Gold Industry with A Net Profit of USD 83.87 Million in Q1 of 2014
At the backdrop of decrease in gold price and increase in production costs, Zijin Mining achieved a net profit attributable to the parent of USD 83.87 million, ranking No.1 in national gold industry, coming closely after international gold giants such as Barrick, Newmont and Goldcorp.

12 May 2014
Zijin Ranks No.1390 on "Forbes Global 2000"
Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd (hereafter "Zijin")ranks No.1390 on"Forbes Global 2000" published on May 8th 2014. Zijin moves up 2 spots to No. 23 among the global non-ferrous metals companies and moves up 1 spot to No.4 among global gold companies.


3)IMO, as they don't get to 30% by 30/6, they still go with 7c until 16th July as stated, but then will extend & up the offer to 10c - which is near to lowest fair & reasonable price as per independent valuation.

And if all fails, I also don't see them selling out, whatever acceptances they have, at a loss. Therefore it will not go down to 5-5.5c as they have hinted at.

Finally BGL will use the 15% placement facility to get funds to carry on with the DFS. In theory the share price would fall, EXCEPT the nearer to DFS & maiden reserve, the higher the share price should get. In meantime, Iraq (& Ukraine?) keeps the POG equal or higher than $1280 where it is now, so makes it attractive to another bidder coming in.

SO no need to sell out, in short, or medium term...

[temujiin] 16/6/2014 10:22

Zijn are playing a clever game and clearly do want BGL and certainly wont be reducing their %. IMO they are hoping some will sell before the final deadline and Zijn will and are suggesting that the share price will naturally drop afterwards, and as BGL go for a placing. This may happen but imo Zijn will be there snapping up everything that is sold so in effect again paying a cheap price.

Zijn imo are unlikely to aquire another 14% when all they can get from the easy shares after 2 months is 10%.

[sat69] 16/6/2014 10:04

I would never belittle another for selling. We each have our own financial agenda and our reasons for buying and selling. However, I will not sell at 8c.

Given that NGF have quite strongly stated that they will not increase the offer again and assuming no other bidder has emerged, we have to accept that we will be dipping into our posckets again, probably next month. As my holding is relatively small, I can easily stomach another 20% (or so) of my holding. I'm not sure about the other holders though.

[rosco46] 16/6/2014 09:55

I'm not so sure about winning for me, but I think it will certainly help recover some of my paper loss.

[xclusive2] 16/6/2014 09:42

Anybody selling needs a good kick in the cajones !! We now have a large institional investor on board who won't be going away. They're not going to sell their stock, they've made a commitment and they want BGL gold. Is it a bad thing to have a 16% holder on board ? i can't see the negatives and much as they say best and final, it won't be.

Need Brett and co to deliver the DFS and let's see if we get another offer from another party, especially if proposition is more attractive to funders. NGF were hoping to get hold of this now, anybody not sold will win here.

Smarty

[rosco46] 16/6/2014 09:42

So they are after another 14% I'll tell you all one thing they ain't getting any of mine.