British Energy Share Discussion Threads

[utsushi] 18/8/2006 09:24

In my own humble opinion, the main driver of earnings in higher electricity prices is outweighed by poor relative strength on results combined with a potential stock overhang, short term at least i think there is more downside risk.

[farnesbarnes] 17/8/2006 14:31

AML looking to breakout soon...

[markie7] 17/8/2006 14:05

sold today - overhang and inability to run stations not a good mix!

small profit, off somewhere else with the proceeds, not sure where yet.

[jezboy1] 17/8/2006 08:34

This morning -

'It may well pay to wait until September, when the Government is due to say how much and when it will sell its stake in British Energy, before deciding whether to buy, says the Times.' (source digital look)

overhang may be a bit worrying...

[pucpucpuc] 17/8/2006 07:36

I think that this obsession on output is just wrong. Anybody with experience in operation with very large plants can tell that maintenance and repair is just everyday life. Achieving 90 something efficiency is pretty good, a few % flucuation in output is normal, if they can improve on that will be good anyway.
With such large margin is the electricity price the main profit drive, not the output.
Price flucutations or drop more caused by fonds tactics, government policies and all the rest which we do not know and not told.

[karateboy] 17/8/2006 05:36

AS I PREDICTED RESULTS ON GENERATION MAY NOT BE GOOD. I AM SUPRISED TO SEE THIS CAME AS UNEXPECTED TO CITY ANALYSTS. ''David Buik, a market commentator at spreadbetting firm Cantor Index,described the dip in the share price as harsh, saying the numbers were good despite the unexpected fall in output.''

IF THEY HAVE LOOKED AT BE WEBSITE AND FOLLOWED THE GHENERATION FOR EACH STATION THEY SHOULD HAVE SEEN IT FOR THEMSELVES THAT 63TW GENERATION IS LOOKING A BIT IFY. I THINK share price NOW IS GOING TO GO SIDEWAY FOR A WHILE UNTIL DIVI IS ANNOUNCED...

[farnesbarnes] 16/8/2006 21:20

Take yer profits grip...

[grippa] 16/8/2006 15:54

Over reaction! Chart still looking good, good come back in the afternoon!

[jezboy1] 16/8/2006 12:13

Well latest news said

'British Energy said mistakes in communication between staff at one of its UK
plants were partly responsible for the loss in output, which resulted in a 2.2
pct fall in total output for the quarter to 17 TWh.'

Sounds like Homer Simpson is working at one of their
power stations.....

I also note that the UK government has said it is actively considering selling part of its stake in British Energy, which entitles it to 64.6 pct of the firm's net cash flow.

That's some serious overhang, anyone know how this disposal is likely to
pan-out (i.e., has experience of sales of large national stakes in a listed
company), my sentiment is that it can't end up being anything but bad news....

Final comment from the RNS -
Utilities analyst James Sparrow at Royal Bank of Scotland said the results
were disappointing, given the company is concentrating on improving operational
performance and reducing unplanned production outages. However, Sparrow said RBOS is keeping its neutral recommendation on the stock. "Despite this disappointment, which will set back any potential rating upgrades, British Energy's cashflow generation will still be very strong," he said.
David Buik, a market commentator at spreadbetting firm Cantor Index,
described the dip in the share price as harsh, saying the numbers were good
despite the unexpected fall in output. He said he believed there would be renewed interest in the stock after the market had calmed down.

[jarsav] 16/8/2006 12:06

anyone think that this is over done.

[jezboy1] 16/8/2006 11:15

Thanks MIATA

you seem to know everything and be everywhere.... :-)

[miata] 16/8/2006 10:04

J.P. Morgan said "the only support for shares comes from the statement that management is considering an update of dividend policy."

Broker forecasts:
EPS 31/03/07 current 67.13p 1 year ago 55.83p

[jezboy1] 16/8/2006 09:52

Market is doing what it always does in the present climate -

serious punish any disappointment....

question is, by how much?

61TW drop from 63TW (suggests about a 3% drop on expectations),
does anyone have the last end of year analyst EPS predictions?

ta in advance

[karateboy] 15/8/2006 19:41

Results may not be good on Wednesday. In the generation side they may be behind the schedule and as a result may not achieve 63 tw that they have promised to the city as a minimum by end of the year.

[grippa] 15/8/2006 08:44

Farnes...I just use my gut instinct...It's sometimes right sometimes wrong. I have been in BGY since £3.34 when no one wanted to touch it...now the story is changing and the chart to me looks good. I dont use any technical indicators except the basic ones. High/lows volume clsoing price etc...sorry to not be more technical.

[farnesbarnes] 14/8/2006 20:21

Time will tell Grip.

I should imagine you've made a healthy profit from BGY. If I were holding, from a technical point of view, I would be taking profit soon. However, as the prevailing trend is up, keep going.

I'm going to maintain the 3%/763 close for 3 days, and some good volume as an indicator of the cuurent trend continuing.

What indicators do you use to exit trades grip. Parabolic SAR?

Edit - good luck.

[lisafig3] 13/8/2006 19:11

Just the info I was looking for:

[grippa] 13/8/2006 17:26

Farnes...I dont see anything bearish! BGY has some serious momentum behind it! Hitting new closing highs repeatedly...I am still very bullish on this one. And volume is by no means that light. Good luck.

[farnesbarnes] 12/8/2006 08:14

Grip

Not totally convinced:

1. I'd like a 3%break of the 720 ish April high, on deceent volume.

2. Latest rally on falling volume.

3. Bearish divergences on MACD.

4. Nov to Apr rally had a strong 45 degree support line. This was broken beginning of May and now looks to be resistence.

[grippa] 11/8/2006 15:45

Great closing high today. 747p. 800 is definitely in reach now.

[grippa] 03/8/2006 10:40

Its nice to be right sometimes! We seem to be at a crossroads again now. Up at previous highs, few pence up few pence down. I am still very bullish and think if we can close above previous highs of 735 ish(which is within spitting distance) we should get over 750 towards 800. Lets re-visit this thread in four months to see if i was correct again?

[forest100] 02/8/2006 21:38

catch this:

[farnesbarnes] 02/8/2006 20:49

lol at bpoole's comment 8 March.

Nice call grippa

[jonak] 02/8/2006 20:46

I've been out of the UK for a while; anyone know what provisons were made for BGY decommissioning costs for current and any future build plants?

If these are ignored, then BGY could look cheap; if those are still unresolved , even with the attractive electricity prices and increasing market share (if Mr Blair is to be believed), I'd be wary of investing in this.

Wasn't it decomissioning costs that ultimately made the business fold last time?

[jonak] 02/8/2006 20:42

looks like the most sensible thread...