British Energy Share Discussion Threads

[esmerelda] 01/10/2004 07:20

Today's announcement:

British Energy PLC recorded an operating loss of 36 mln stg in the three months to June 30, including exceptional operating costs of 16 mln stg, and said it is making progress in efforts to delist its shares.
Shares in British Energy had fallen over 16 pct yesterday after investor and
hedge fund Polygon Investment Partners LLP abandoned its attempt to scupper its
planned restructuring deal.
The first-quarter loss before tax was 115 mln stg, while on an EBITDA basis
the loss was 2 mln stg, not including the adjustment from the revised BNFL
back-end contracts totalling 1 mln stg.
British Energy did not provide any figures for the year-ago period since this was the first time it had provided quarterly data.
Total output for the quarter was 16.4 TWh and nuclear output was down by 12
pct to 15.0 TWh in the three-month period, compared with 17.0 TWh of nuclear
output in the equivalent period last year.
The company's net debt as of Aug 31 was 331 mln stg.
The company said it expected that investment in plant projects, major
repairs and strategic spares across the whole new British Energy Group will be
in the range of 150-180 mln stg.
Combined funding deficiencies in two pension schemes was expected to be 385 mln stg, within the range of 330-440 mln stg previously disclosed. The impact of the deficit will be reflected in full-year results.
Turnover was 372 mln stg for the first quarter.
British Energy said that as a result of a number of restrictions concerning
its restructuring and after making an allowance for collateral requirements, the directors consider that the earliest period for which a dividend may be declared is the full year 2007.

[drewz] 30/9/2004 21:20

Given time there will be a long gentle recovery in the share price back to mid twenties as the speculators move on and the cash flow improves and uncertainty is removed, imho.

[pc4900074200] 30/9/2004 19:48

Surely British Energy will / should issue an RNS regarding the
position of delisting or not, as the threat of the EGM has
gone.
As it is, left as it is, people are pulling their shares from
PEP's / ISA's and there should be no need. BE have got
their own way in this.
If left, shareholders are being 'hit' twice with losses.

pc

[audand] 30/9/2004 19:29

Very simplistic I know, but,volume of almost 60m today. 60m =30 m sells, 30 m buys. I know it,s not, but someone has a lot more at close than they had at the start of trading today On the volume traded, price has remained remarkably stable especially when you bare in mind the volume of "forced" trades(PEPs/ISAs etc)

[chelle] 30/9/2004 19:10

...shame you weren't around to tell all the amateurs when to buy and sell all the way through

[ldrcvem] 30/9/2004 18:51

tuteratut
please see my post 8520. I tried, but obviously failed, to use plain English.

[tuteratut] 30/9/2004 18:43

ldrcvem Interested in your D4E swap valuation. Don't happen to have a readable source on that approach?

[ldrcvem] 30/9/2004 18:11

tupros
All I am saying is that the bonds value bgy at 11p. I have no view on bgy's prospects myself. My experience,however, tells me that bondholders in the D4E swap value equity a lot more efficiently in these situations than equity holders who seem to comprise mostly loads of rather hopeful and misguided amateurs. See my numerous posts on MONI, TWT, LUFC, before reality set in. It may be different this time but I doubt it.

[quidzinn] 30/9/2004 17:31

tupros,

Circa 14p is an undervaluation - it factors in a few uncertainties.

Q

[atlantic1953] 30/9/2004 17:29

Simon thank you for your sound and accurate advice.I Made a good profit on this thanks to you its real money as i Purchased at around 10 pence.Your advice has
proved remarkeably accurate in terms of both the intrinsic value and the outside chance of a really big return.I followed you on t1ps .com but as this is the place you seem regularly to post on please do share any further tips.

Many thanks for this one...

[tupros123] 30/9/2004 17:18

Idrcvem: I have followed you debate with Snogger with interest. There is one thing that bothers me about your valuation and that is: why does the market currently value the shares at 14p? Given the circumstances I would have thought the market would be tending to undervalue at the moment.

[kiino-ke] 30/9/2004 16:58

oopps from 17 to 14 and where are the invetsors now?

[ldrcvem] 30/9/2004 16:43

snogger
you're getting there!
Now take 550 mn off warrant part of the 7.5%
(Much easier if you look at post 8520 Its not that complicated.)

[snogger] 30/9/2004 16:24

ok so lets reduce the market cap by 154m (and in my book you should'nt) but just to test your calculation.

1.7billion - 154m = 1.55billion (thats close to my original calculation)

that makes existing shareholders 7.5% = £116million

116/88.4 = 1.31

current price of 14.25 * 1.31 = 18.7p.

You only need reply if i have'nt used your numbers in a completly logical way.

[ldrcvem] 30/9/2004 16:09

snogger#

bondholders also get 154mn new bonds . dont wish to be rude but ths is my last post to you. I suggesst you you read my earlier post 8520 and apply a hot towell

[ariesr] 30/9/2004 16:05

has to be said Bash, how the hell did you call bottom.

Are you Uri Geller perchance? Or is this Katie Price syndrome?

[snogger] 30/9/2004 15:56

idrc,

using your numbers

£897 million = 52.3% of lets call it newco.

that makes 1.7billion of net worth.

Shareholders get 7.5% of newco = £127.5 million

Current mkt capitalisation at todays closing price of 14.25p = £88.4million.

so to equate the two into todays terms 127.5 divided by 88.4 = 1.44

14.25*1.44 = 20.55

where am i going wrong? these are your numbers

[mrba5hir] 30/9/2004 15:32

LOL insider, I bailed out at @14.285p.. made a couple of hundred quid profit. will be back in if it falls again.

[dave88] 30/9/2004 15:25

at 16.39 i expect

[insiderboy] 30/9/2004 15:23

hopefully Bashir's going down with this!!!

[insiderboy] 30/9/2004 15:23

ooops............down you go!!!

[mattheworchard] 30/9/2004 15:21

there must be some announcement soon with all these shares changing hands!¬

[chelle] 30/9/2004 15:15

what the flip is going on?

[boggles] 30/9/2004 15:06

British Energy heading down to 5p where it belongs. Sell the wreck now and salvage what you can, it's damaged goods at this current price.

[ldrcvem] 30/9/2004 15:01

Snogger
i give up. I tried. Do the sums.