British Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ariesr] 30/9/2004 13:07

Idrcvem: Thank you.

[papillon] 30/9/2004 13:05

There seems to be good support at 14p.

[tupros123] 30/9/2004 13:02

Idrcvem: Thank you for the info on the bond market. You say the prices are not quoted on screen, so how can one obtain bond price information? and is it possible to get historical bond price info?

[quidzinn] 30/9/2004 13:01

2 mill buy - plenty of life in this one still - dontcha know you can't just switch the lights off ??

Q

[chelle] 30/9/2004 12:59

Not that I am criticising, it's just that often not a sound from anyone until the shorters climb aboard, then dozens of posts. The regulars here ( who tend to be long) are known to most and tend to post as and when.

[a0469514] 30/9/2004 12:53

ldrcvem,
Lets see your calculation then of how you get to 11p.

Xylos

[ldrcvem] 30/9/2004 12:52

Im small short at 15p. The key to BGY now is the bond price. The share price will converge on it. There are four houses who make markets Saloman, B of A, Lehman, and CSFB. The do not quote them on screens. Bond price right now (220p per pound)says roughly 11p per share. If it goes up so will shares and vice versa. as reconstruction date nears 30% equity premium will narrow.

[quidzinn] 30/9/2004 12:51

Interesting ...... - go to Polygon's website and click on 'Press' and - hey presto - the BGY press releases have disappeared !

Q

[bgyered] 30/9/2004 12:48

Disappointing, but it ain't over 'til ... The facts will out come what may - BGY is going to make a huge amount of money with forward prices in the £25 tp £40/MWh range. In retrospect, say 2 year's time, it is going to be very easy to demonstrate how the shareholders did not receive their dues. I look forward to supporting any ensuing legal action aginst HMG and BGY to stick them with negligence & malpractice & misfeasance.

Meanwhile, I'm not selling, I plan to participate in the action. I'm in to the bitter end. Somebody seems to want to buy my shares today - tough titty. The boys at Brighton want my vote - tougher titty.

[chelle] 30/9/2004 12:32

so what price are you in at - and long or short?

[ldrcvem] 30/9/2004 12:27

Charlie,
nice to see sense on this thread,
bonds are trading at 220p in the pound.
this values equity at 11p per share(including warrant value)

[chelle] 30/9/2004 12:09

I think last Thurs we hit late 12's intraday, and then steadied at 17 Friday - Weds. Someone taking great advantage of this scare-mongering.

[a0469514] 30/9/2004 12:03

Charlie, presumably you are short so it is in your interest, as you see it, and not having too many scruples, to scare weak holders into selling. BUT.

The shares are currently depressed below threir true value of 22p for three reasons:

1. Short term holders are selling because they cannot accept a risk that they may get locked in on delisting.

2. People with BGY in ISAs are being pushed into selling by ISA providers who are prevented from giving advice and who are giving further encouragement by them offering to do this commision free in some cases. Much better in my view to pay the £10 fee and just transfer them out of the ISA.

3. The threat of delisting is scaring even some long term holders who appear to think that this will make their shares worthless. Not so.

So the clued up US boys are hoovering up all the small sales by the Sids to make an easy 50% gain. Sad really. Soon all this selling pressure will dry up and the shares will start to move back to their true value so I would be looking to close your short soon if I were you.

Xylos.

[mrba5hir] 30/9/2004 11:41

this is what Evil K has said :

I think that even on the current reconstruction terms, 15p-25p will prove to be the eventual outturn

[richgit] 30/9/2004 11:41

charlie,
I think you may find that most "new"shareholders have already gone and most
shorters have closed,leaving just day traders to guess.
Have you not considered that there are some heavy hitting vultures that such
BB messages dont scare.

The dream is certainly over,but to "big funds" there seems to be a very generous
upside.

[mrba5hir] 30/9/2004 11:39

charlie

no, Evil K gave a c.20p valuation if Montague got his way. BGY will be a cash flow play. Its ability to generate phenomenal amounts of net cash is quite astounding.

[insiderboy] 30/9/2004 11:38

Bashir

TOA i'm commenting on.............Got any ROS today?

[chelle] 30/9/2004 11:35

presume you do not hold then?

[mrba5hir] 30/9/2004 11:35

LOL.. you said the same for CLY... at 6p.. its now 3.75p. now that is what i would call "oh dear"

[charlie] 30/9/2004 11:31

4.So Montegue's scheme is now very likely to go through and under that scenario, as Simon Cawkwell says in Post 8413, the shares should have a value of 22p.

Not sure if the attribution to Mr Cawkwell is correct but the above remark appears crazy.

The shares have been trading the past several weeks in the range 15 to 25p on hopes that shareholders might get 30% of the equity, not 2.5% + warrants. It has now been confirmed that shareholders will get 2.5%. The shares are worth very much less than they were yesterday.

Wake up people! The dream is over! Stop clutching at straws!

[richgit] 30/9/2004 11:27

Summary of Warrant Terms



The warrants which shareholders would receive in the circumstances detailed
above would have the following terms:


% of Newco 1's share capital (1) : 5.0 per cent.

Exercise period: 5 years from completion of the
Proposed Restructuring

Subscription price (aggregate)(2): #28.95 million



(1) Fully diluted (excluding the impact of conversion of the NLF Cash Sweep
Payment) immediately following completion of the Proposed Restructuring.


(2) Equivalent to an equity market capitalisation of the Group of #550 million
post-restructuring.

???????????????

[insiderboy] 30/9/2004 11:27

Bashir

oh dear...................

should have bought some TOA when i did..........nearly 20% profit for a few hours work!!!!

[bpoole] 30/9/2004 11:20

Anybody know what the warrent offer was?

[a0469514] 30/9/2004 11:13

ldrcvem,
The bond price is depressed because there has been a serious risk that if Polygon's proposals had succeeded, the bondholders would only come out at par. Once this risk is removed, the bonds will presumably increase substantially to give the holders an even bigger killing.

Xylos

[richgit] 30/9/2004 10:57

I presume Polygon concluded that Mr Stark was definitely going to use his
stake to block them.

In that context what is more sinister is they must also have concluded, probably
after an insider threatening phone call,that the de-listing was going to be allowed,as surely if permission was/is not granted, the game would still have been on with a different set of rules.

SIMON

If you are around,could you explain to shareholders,in simple terms,how you
view the warrants situation?????????????????????