Brady Share Discussion Threads

[igoe104] 07/10/2015 07:09

Disappointing fall, but not surprising.

I don`t know what`s hvs1 is saying he`s been on my filter list for year`s.

[phosgene] 27/9/2015 10:23

I come from the commodities side of things so my view is a little skewed, but we must remember that they have products in Refined metals, Metal Concentrates, Metal Recycling but also Softs / Agricultural, and Energy.
Whether or not China wants to keep digging ore out of the ground or using pre-refined metal will only impact on the first two and even then, they should not be viewed as 100% trading platforms but also inventory management and hedging platforms. China should be irrelevant for the Soft/Agri and Energy divisions beyond merely being insulated from it.

True, I don't like the way the focus of the company has drifted but if it hadn't, the lack of Energy sales would have made the Annual Reports a lot more grim to read. I think the relentless pessimism of some posts are unfounded (Lavelle is not stupid and he surely must have a 5~10 year exit strategy so he can take his options and buy an island in the sun) but so are the relentless "Upgraded to borrow-money-from-your-neighbours-and-remortgage-the-house because there is no way the share price will not *explode*" posts are also unfounded (frequent good news mainly from Switzerland and Norway does not completely outweigh the mainly silence from Cambridge and Maumee).

I don't know if anyone here is that close to Brady but it would be interesting to hear feedback from the European CAB last week or the Americas CAB in two weeks time. The agendas are somewhat different.

[rivaldo] 24/9/2015 13:22

News - contract win, with the potential for more globally:



"Thursday, 24 September 2015 07:00

Brookfield Renewable Energy Europe selects Brady Cloud solution to handle Its UK power scheduling

24th September 2015, London:Brady plc (BRY.L), the leading supplier of trading and risk management solutions for energy, commodities and recycling, announced today that Brookfield Renewable Energy Europe has selected Brady Power Scheduling solution to manage its power scheduling activities in the UK.

Brookfield Renewable Energy Group operates one of the largest publicly-traded pure-play renewable power platforms with operations across North America, Latin America and Europe, with a portfolio totalling more than 7,000 MW of installed capacity. In Europe, Brookfield Renewable’s portfolio consists of 600 MW of operating wind capacity across Ireland, the UK and Portugal, and has a project development pipeline of approximately 1,400 MW.

To support its European growth ambitions, Brookfield sought a reliable, robust and agile solution that could handle the demands of entry into multiple new markets. In Brady, Brookfield found a software partner with a reputation for outstanding quality, experience and user support.

The Brady Energy Scheduling Solution for power supports businesses such as Brookfield with cross-border trading and supply activities. The solution is delivered by Brady Cloud Services, and provides full provision for all TSO Connectivity Services as organisations’ connectivity requirements evolve.

Brady's dedicated Cloud Services deliver the highest levels of availability and reliability as well as multi-layered (ISO27001 certified) security, providing the perfect environment for scalable enterprise wide and mission critical solutions for organisations of any size.

Ruth Kent, Head of Power Marketing at Brookfield Renewable Europe, commented on the selection process: “Brady’s unique ability to handle more European markets with a single product provided us with a scalable and flexible solution for our scheduling requirements that can adapt with our business as we continue to expand in Europe”

Gavin Lavelle, CEO of Brady plc, commented: “Our robust and flexible solution, is perfect for companies requiring the ability to be able to perform scheduling within and between a wide range of European markets and I am confident, that like our other customers, Brookfield will be up and running within the requested timeframe and will quickly recognise the benefits of the Brady scheduling solution”."

[opodio] 21/9/2015 12:52

Complete bag of spanners


China exposure will knacker it imho

[rivaldo] 17/9/2015 10:36

New note out from Edison, retaining estimates and stating BRY is "attractive". I note they expect BRY to end this year with £11.2m net cash.

If BRY were to be sold at 5 times sales as Triple Point was it would mean a 200p share price.



Conclusion:

"In H115, Brady signed two highly significant new contracts in its Commodities and Recycling divisions, while the Energy business unit continues to build momentum with six contracts signed. The company has also made a neat bolt-on in its Recycling unit, at a very attractive price. In light of falling commodity prices, Brady says it is not seeing any slowdown in its end markets, despite the economic backdrop. The group has 80% of FY15 revenues in the bag and a strong pipeline. Hence, we believe the stock looks attractive at c 12.5x our maintained cash-adjusted FY16 EPS."

"Valuation: Growth supported by strong balance sheet

Brady trades on c 12.5x our cash-adjusted FY16 EPS, 1.8x EV/sales and c 9.1x
EV/EBITDA. In our view, the valuation continues to look attractive relative to the peer group and we note that all the other major E/CTRM players have changed
hands in recent years, eg Triple Point was sold in 2013 for 5x sales."

[rivaldo] 09/9/2015 13:49

BRY has £7.5m net cash at 31/7, forecast to rise to £10m+ at the year end.

Plus 55% recurring income.

Plus a complete and utter bargain of an acquisition for cash this week, with more likely.

As a global leader in its sector, BRY's prospects and finances look rather impressive.

[hvs1] 09/9/2015 10:49

pump that stock

give it a damn good pumping, pump pump pump

try some more cut and paste cause it aint working lol, we need more cut and paste, much much more, lol

chart looks ugly, but the oafs always know better, lol

as said before, bry finances never look that impressive, the hype is greater than the reality

c yas x

[opodio] 08/9/2015 07:01

haha, yes and the share price chart is telling porkies

A profit warning will send this to 60p imho

[rivaldo] 08/9/2015 06:59

The commodities downturn will help BRY since its products are primarily designed to combat volatility rather than price upturns or downturns, so the current market is actually beneficial to BRY overall.

...and of course BRY already has visibility on 80% of this year's forecast revenues with almost 4 months of the year still to go.

Plus 55% of its income is recurring.

[opodio] 08/9/2015 06:24

Going to get mullered by the Chinese economic slowdown and the related impact on commodities markets

[rivaldo] 07/9/2015 22:18

Cenkos also say Buy today, and have increased their forecasts after today's tremendous acquisition.

They now go for 6.6p EPS next year (Panmure increased to 6.9p EPS).

Assuming BRY achieve their forecasts then Panmure's 129p target will be in sight. If they don't, then the share price will of course fall.

[opodio] 07/9/2015 19:33

im with you here hvs1 and have to agree, chart is telling its own grim story


Going to get mullered by the Chinese economic slowdown and the related impact on commodities markets

If the rot sets in and they have a profit warning, then i would expect this to fall to 60p

[hvs1] 07/9/2015 18:21

i wouldnt listen to this hastings or that rivaldonut pair

if you ask me, chart is saying the market thinks old brady sucks

the chart is kinda bleeding obvious, always amazes me that oafs always think they can beat the market, lol

personally, always found the financials at bry a tad underwhelming considering the shed load of contracts they sign, never seems to translate into the big bucks

and that div was always bloody miserly

all imvho etc etc dyor whatever folmao

c ya oafs

[hastings] 07/9/2015 16:06

hxxp://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/business-news

[hastings] 07/9/2015 10:35

Hi rivaldo,you are absolutely spot on regarding the misconception about Brady's business.
Having just finished speaking with Brady will add some comment later.

[rivaldo] 07/9/2015 10:22

Indeed hastings - I note that forecasts for next year have been lifted to 6.9p EPS.

And there's still room for further acquisitions from the cash pile.

Judging from certain comments above it seems there's still a misunderstanding about BRY's business, which the market has caught onto by re-rating the shares this year.

The business is primarily about benefiting from volatility, not whether energy/commodity prices are high or low. Thus BRY's principal trading clients need BRY's products more, not less, in times of substantial price movements.

Not to mention the growth and potential in Recycling.

[opodio] 07/9/2015 09:45

forget proactive, chart is telling its own grim story


Going to get mullered by the Chinese economic slowdown and the related impact on commodities markets

If the rot sets in and they have a profit warning, then i would expect this to fall to 60p

[hastings] 07/9/2015 09:43

Brokers remaining confident on full year delivery, Panmure upping the target price to £1.29p.

Speaking with Gavin Lavelle a bit later, although I guess most already covered in the proactive interview.

[opodio] 07/9/2015 09:42

Going to get mullered by the Chinese economic slowdown and the related impact on commodities markets

[rivaldo] 07/9/2015 08:22

Yep, the acquisition looks tremendous - just $2m cash paid for $0.7m of PBT and very high recurring revenues, plus no doubt cost synergies and opportunities for further sales to those clients who aren't already BRY clients.

The H1 results are obviously not great in themselves. BRY seem very confident that contracts signed in H2 will make up the difference for the year. In most cases I'd be somewhat doubtful about this, but I trust BRY's management, believe this to be a good company and am happy to hold.

H2 news flow should be excellent assuming these "significant" contracts "in advanced discussions" come through.