Brady Share Discussion Threads

[bookbroker] 28/1/2014 09:48

This co. needs to start hedging its own share price, performance nothing short of scandalous considering the market fro risk management solutions should be very strong, looking at the board they are not short of mathematical boffins, but if they can not improve the performance of the co., then it's time they let another co. have a shot, I am sick of the cosy way in which employees at senior level are just prepared to sit there while shareholder goes down the can, this does not happen in the US, underachievement is not acceptable when investors should be rewarded for patience, they talk about improving returns, well there had better be no more banana skins, otherwise Mr Brady should think about using his large holding to good advantage!

[puffintickler] 24/1/2014 17:43

At first sight it does seem perverse that a company into risk management does not cover currency risk on its own result but I think they are right. It is very difficult to hedge currency in an exact way, it is expensive and over time the gains and losses will compensate.

[simon gordon] 23/1/2014 15:25

Edison out with a fresh note:

Brady had a bumper H213, with c £8m of new business signed in Q413, including three deals that were much larger than typical deals. However, the group recognised almost none of this revenue due to its conservative revenue recognition policy, with most expected to be recognised in FY14. Also, a decline in the Norwegian kroner (NOK) took its toll on the Energy unit's revenues. Hence, FY13 revenues are £1.8m below our expectations, while net cash is £0.2m ahead. We have cut our FY14 revenues due to the strong pound (GBP) and conservatively eased profits, but cash generation remains solid. In our view, the shares look good value on c 14x our cash-adjusted FY14 EPS if the group can maintain the deal-signing momentum.

Forecasts: Easing back revenues and profits

As the GBP has recently appreciated considerably against the NOK, as well as against the dollar and euro, we have conservatively cut our FY14 revenues by £2.3m to £32.7m. Our adjusted operating profit comes back by £1.8m to £5.0m, while net cash at end-FY14 falls by £0.9m to £7.6m. Our new forecasts are underpinned by a record backlog and strong recurring revenues (57% of total).

Valuation: Attractive when adjusted for net cash

Adjusted for the £6.7m of cash and c £1.4m of outstanding acquisition liabilities, the shares trade on 13.8x our FY14 EPS. Private equity continues to have a strong interest in this sector with Triple Point, one of Brady's largest competitors, sold in July 2013 to ION, backed by TA Associates, for $900m, or 5x FY12 sales (Brady trades on c 1.7x our FY14 EV/sales). Meanwhile, Silver Lake Kraftwerk and Nexus Venture Partners invested $40.75m in India-based EKA Software late last year.



Forecast is for 5.1p in 2014.

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According to Sharescope, Panmure Gordon had them doing 6.75p, that forecast was dated 25/10/13.

Were folks expecting 5.1p in 2014?

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EDIT

Edison - 23/1/14:
PBT - 5m
EPS - 5.1p

Panmure - 25/10/13
PBT - 6.55m
EPS - 6.75p

[aishah] 23/1/2014 11:54

"ComTech Advisory finds that the commodities trading industry is open to considering alternatives to traditional on-premises implementation models for ETRM and CTRM software including both SaaS and hosted in the cloud delivery. While a small, but committed, minority continue to resist anything but the traditional on premises implementation approach, the overwhelming majority will consider SaaS/hosted in the cloud for a variety of vertical application areas in and around commodity trading," reports Dr. Gary M. Vasey, co-managing director of ComTech.

[aishah] 23/1/2014 11:52

Record sales as Brady grows in US and eastern Europe

[contrarian2investor] 23/1/2014 11:22

More contracts to come, so I am going to hold on to Brady. For what I expect to be a very good long-term tech play.

[aishah] 23/1/2014 08:57

The Group has seen strong interest in Brady Cloud solution, resulting in an impressive 15% growth in cloud revenues. Picked up a few more.

[owenski] 23/1/2014 08:55

BRY have a stand at an investor show 04 Feb, I intend to go, anyone got any questions I can put to them.

bookbroker; I shall raise the fixed costs question.

[bookbroker] 23/1/2014 08:51

Got to remember the cost savings enacted hopefully will have a positive impact this year, I'm sure there is still more they can do, so management have to keep chipping away at fixed costs, I hope Lavelle can see that, he has to convince the city that this is a good long term investment, certainly seems to have a strong mkt. position, so no excuses! We know they were slightly late on contract signing, hence the revenue shortfall.

[connor23] 23/1/2014 08:35

I have taken the opportunity to pick up a few more on the drop. The company is projecting a positive outlook and the rating looks undemanding in my eyes for a business with a high percentage of recurring revenues and blue chip clients. Hopefully a steady stream of contract wins will arrive this year and confirm my optimism!

[rivaldo] 23/1/2014 08:18

Simon, not a holder here, but Edison's forecast EBITDA was £3.8m, so the reported £3.6m is evidently a miss against forecasts.

Forecast revenues were £31m, so the reported £29.3m is an even bigger miss.

[simon gordon] 23/1/2014 08:07

"The Company expects to report revenues of £29.3m and adjusted EBITDA(1) of approximately £3.6m."

Forecast was:

T/O - 31m

PBT - 3.1m

[bookbroker] 23/1/2014 08:06

Bit harsh that response to IMS, on the whole in line and forward the statement positive, surprised by reaction!

[stegrego] 23/1/2014 08:06

Not sure why this is selling off. Past is past and timing issues just make the next year better....

[phosgene] 19/1/2014 21:26

Good news followed by institutional reduction in holding = roller-coaster ride.
Buy if you want to / can, hold if you want to / can, sell if you want to / can.
I'm waiting for the not-official-but-it-seems-to-happen-that-way annual company purchase to see where that leaves the stock.

[highcommissioner] 14/1/2014 13:35

Brady currently on a 2014 pe ratio of 11.4 with an eps forecast of 6.68.

[techno20] 13/1/2014 19:42

Decent response today, although I had hoped we'd break 80p.

Agree we should see steady progress from here, but the share price will be held back until we get an update from the New FD.

Trading statement due by month end, should hopefully confirm progress with the transition to the new model.

Techno.

[bookbroker] 13/1/2014 14:35

A quid within the next six months I'd say, altered business model to rental based, so clearer visibility of recurring revenue, should be a relatively straightforward process to recover lost ground, clearly the player of choice in the risk-based software market for commodities,etc.

[contrarian2investor] 13/1/2014 14:16

Gargoyle2, Techno20 & Glasshalfull,

Brady should continue to surprise the markets from here. So I am looking forward to them heading nearer to £1 over the next 12 months.

I took a nibble at Brady for just shy of 60p on 26/09/13 see post number 25944 on the SHA thread.

I have followed up that buy with another tranche this morning for 75p after news of their contract wins.

[glasshalfull] 13/1/2014 08:33

Can't believe the lack of interest here following what can only be described as a storming finish to 2013.

@Glasshalfull1: BRY (Brady) Gaining momentum in multiple markets For 2014 on PER 11, net cash & good recur revenue visibility #TMFPP

Regards,
GHF