Brady Share Discussion Threads

[cyberian] 19/3/2009 15:30

davidosh.....have had the same approach and feed-back. Not sure if that 100,000 trade x two last night was just a simple exchange/switch between connected parties. Appears to be slightly more interest over recent days, and again believe that some Institution(s) see Brady as a means to deploy some funding on the cash position enjoyed by BRY, the vastly improved management and their ambitions etc, and a sector as you will see from the 11/3 presentation has much room to grow organically and perhaps through more very selected acquisitions. I can see the alledged Institution interst them funding (buying shares at a slight premium) to cover a bid which all parties support. Remember 3 guys hold quite a stake between them and would not be prepared to undertake anything that is not rock solid and revenue/earnings enhancing. Just my reading...dyor. etc., but I do expect to see the share price closer to the initial float price of 81p soon.

[davidosh] 19/3/2009 14:50

My broker says the MMs are very keen to have stock...Are those directors all buying again ?

[cyberian] 19/3/2009 14:19

Power-point presentation dated 11th March on their web site under "research notes"....seems pretty encouraging with statement that in January '09 they have increased their internal forecasts.

[cyberian] 16/3/2009 13:59

Must be today as buyers appear to on the scene...still, with a normal 4p spead and a gain of 1p on the day (so far) it is not much to get one too excited. Still believe that some Institutions are keen on our little cash generator company and see a good management team in place to place their bets for something more promising down the road. Probably a good time for Brady with Institutional support to make a more strategic acquisition at a sensible price...there must be some opportunities out there?

[davidosh] 13/3/2009 15:42

When is the investor presentation ? As I have attended the last three AGMs I will be very concerned if I am off the Christmas card list !

[cyberian] 13/3/2009 12:27

marben100....understand there is a selective investor presentation soon and if I get any feed-back I will revert. Agree about the Divi issue but also hearing that some significant Institutions are willing to buy-in and perhaps support a strategic acquisition. However, there appear to be at least 3/4 substantial shareholders that would need to endorse anything radical and would have to totally convinced as to any benefit. This again underlies the need for some clarification at the AGM over the cash retention rather than a further distribution to holders...cash held safely (sure Brady are astuteand sensible) is attracting very modest interest rates at present, I assume. Think Brady is a potential little gem and may have attracted some serious interest to give it some ammunition to reach the next goal. Guess the Board will be very cautious and rightly so but gives a good backdrop to the Investor presentation and AGM.

[marben100] 13/3/2009 12:10

a) With 9 new customers last yr vs 3 the previous year and long lead times on their implementation, I don't think we need fear income dropping off in the near term ;0)
b) If Brady wish to spend their cash on well chosen acquisitions, rather than paying more divvies, that's OK with me - as long as they really make sure that value is added and aren't just "empire building". What I don't like is cash continuously added to the balance sheet without a clear purpose.

[muttleyrules] 12/3/2009 12:03

Broker report ... suggests DCF val'n of 88p for what it's worth ...note that Edison research is commissioned by the companies under coverage so not exactly what i would call independent research!

[cocl2] 11/3/2009 22:53

Also, I just noticed this:



As the dust settles on the Comsoft deal, Lavelle is ready for his next acquisition, and Brady’s coffers are far from empty. “We have an active M&A campaign and we anticipate that we will close more deals this year, funded through either cash or paper, if we need to. We have the flexibility to do either – which is a good place to be.”


Brady looks like they are still acquisitive which might not bode well for the 4% Dividend campaign.

[cocl2] 11/3/2009 22:51

I wouldn't be putting too much stock (pun intended) behind graphing a couple of months out to a year and beyond. There is lag between sales and revenue recognition and I suspect that if we could see the bank balances, they would be a lot more volatile and sawtoothed. Anyone fancy asking the FD for an historic plot of revenue vs. month? I personally suspect it is a purple patch and even though we might wish it to strengthen and continue, I would need more figures to back this 3.6m projection.
I'll be happy to be proved wrong and overly cautious but a single trade of 5000 shares does not give me confidence. Hopefully the traders just called in sick today and it will take off tomorrow.

[marben100] 11/3/2009 16:42

Yup, shall we bring our "We Want More Dividends" placards along to the AGM? :0)

[davidosh] 11/3/2009 16:21

At this growth rate the company will have the market cap fully backed by cash within 18 months. They really could have afforded a dividend of at least 4% though in this market especially as many of us need to live off the dividend income.

[cyberian] 11/3/2009 16:13

With nearly £7 million in cash and £600,000 positive cash-flow in 2 months of '09...a run rate of £3.6 million against £1.7 million last year...PLUS the somewhat upbeat sentiment of Chairman and CEO of pipe-line increases etc. we appear in pretty good shape. Wish the dividend was higher but I think the CEO is rather ambitious and with some degree of caution sees prospects of moving the profile of Brady up a notch or two. Maybe some potential buyer is looking on with interest...as stated before the company is in far better shape than when floated at 81p a few years back. DYOR

[marben100] 11/3/2009 08:21

Got that now. The bulk of trade payables is "accruals & deferred income". In 2007 it fell from £1.5m to £1.2m. Seems likely that there has been a sharp rise in this figure in 2008 (given the £1.2m increase in overall trade payables), which will flow through into 2009 revenues.

[marben100] 11/3/2009 08:15

This line from the cahflow statement is interesting:

2008 2007

Change in trade and other payables 1,257 (185)

Suggests that more work was completed than won in 2007, whereas the converse applies in 2008... I'll have to dig out the 2007 a/cs to check.

Cheers,

Mark

[marben100] 11/3/2009 08:11

I suspect a lot of the impact of the additional sales in 2008 won't be felt until 2009. They say:

"Licence revenues have been recognised in relation to approximately half of the licence revenue from the new licence sales achieved in 2008, with the remainder being deferred for anticipated revenue acceptance and recognition in 2009."

This will be a little clearer in the full accounts, when we can see how much of the "trade payables" is deferred income/prepayments.

[cyberian] 11/3/2009 07:59

So another £600,000 of additional cash added in just 2 months to 28/2/09....£3.6 million if annualised...WOW!!!! Is that correct?

[johnwall] 11/3/2009 07:26

Prelims are out this morning -



Cashflow

The Group had very strong operating cashflow, at GBP2.2 million (2007: GBP0.6
million). This continued the trend of generating operating cash ahead of
operating profit, the latter being GBP0.7 million (2007: GBP0.3 million). Cash
resources at the end of the year increased to GBP7.8 million (2007: GBP6.0 million) and compared to cash resources at 28 February 2009 of GBP6.9 million, which is stated after the deducting the full GBP1.5 million of cash in relation to Comsoft. The Group continues to have no debt.

[marben100] 03/3/2009 13:19

News out today...

"Xstrata Copper goes live with Brady's risk management

3 March 2009, London: Brady plc (BRY.L), the leading global supplier of trading, risk management and settlement solutions to the metals and commodities sectors, is pleased to announce that the world's fourth largest copper producer, Xstrata Copper, has gone live with Brady Trinity 2009. Xstrata Copper Middle East (XCME) is now using Brady for risk managing its physicals book for refined and unrefined metals globally..."

Should trigger a tasty milestone-based invoice. ;0)

[cyberian] 02/3/2009 13:48

Believe results will be out on 11th March and hopefully should be encouraging despite the ravages eleswhere. Interesting to see what their dividend policy will be as value of holding cash themselves must be falling.

[cyberian] 04/2/2009 17:59

Sound move by Lavelle in the Far East appointment of a proven insider...also he appears to be indicating further strength into '09 after a very successful '08. Looking to see if the company may make a move to selectively buy-in some shares from any market sells. Reason is that on balance the company is ahead of when it floated at 81p and would be a reasonable move in view of cash held, and the re-balancing of the team and more vigorous marketing attitude under CEO Lavelle.

[marben100] 04/2/2009 12:13

More news today, I see:

"Brady growth continues with new Asia Pacific operation
4 February

Brady plc (BRY.L), the leading global supplier of trading, risk management and settlement solutions to the metals and commodities sectors, has today announced that it is to open its first office in Asia later this month. The new office in Singapore will be headed by Tony Chapman who has been named as the head of Asian operations; Chapman will relocate from Montreal to take up his new position.

Brady continues to make significant progress with its ambitious strategy for growth: after a very successful 2008, 2009 began with the acquisition of Comsoft. Brady's clients are global producers, fabricators and traders who require Brady to provide global trading and risk management solutions. With a number of clients already using Brady in the Asia Pacific region, a direct presence in Asia is seen as the next step in providing the high levels of support that Brady's clients value and appreciate. Tony Chapman has an in-depth and thorough knowledge of Brady's specialist business and its clients, having been with Brady since 1998, most recently as sales manager in the Americas. During this time he has been instrumental in attracting global clients. He says: "Asia is an exciting region for us and offers us major growth prospects. It's a fantastic opportunity for Brady's expansion and I am delighted to be a part of it."

Gavin Lavelle, CEO of Brady, comments: "2008 was a year of substantial growth for us with many new global institutions choosing Brady. This is the right time for us to establish an office in Singapore, in close proximity to our clients. Building on his success in the Americas, Tony is an excellent choice for establishing our Asian operations and building on our successes. I am looking forward to continuing to work with him in his new capacity." "

Pleased to see that Gavin's continuing to be ambitious.

[marben100] 28/1/2009 00:38

Hmmm... those figures look a bit miserly to me - in the light of 9 new customers in 2008 vs 3 in 2007. We'll see, I guess. However, I see that there is now a 19th Jan "Investor Roadshow Presentation" on Brady's website:

Mmmmm :0)

- Momentum in deal signings
– Significant growth in sales opportunity pipeline

[thefurryone] 27/1/2009 20:13

From my Bloomberg terminal:

Oriel Forecast dated January 12th 2009: 2008 pretax £1.0m (from £0.8m), EPS 2.2p (from 1.8p); 2009 pretax £1.3m (from £1m), EPS 2.9p (from 2.4p).

[marben100] 12/1/2009 18:15

2007 wasn't a brilliant year for Brady. Since then, judging by the news of contract wins, we've seen an explosion of sales. However, a fair chunk of that may not flow into revenues until 2009.

I would not expect admin & selling costs to go up linearly with sales but should (roughly) level off when the sales team is up to strength - which is when the operational gearing kicks in and additional licence sales more or less flow through to the bottom line.

Given what appears to be a transformation in the company, it is rather hard to estimate what the shape of their accounts will look like this year and next year.I guess that's one reason why there hasn't been a forecast update. I hope there'll be fresh guidance once the prelims are out.

Best,

Mark