Boohoo Share Discussion Threads

[khitchen] 07/9/2017 08:38

My panic
Thanks if not today maybe tomorrow

[mypanic] 07/9/2017 08:34

265 barclays

[superhoop2] 07/9/2017 08:33

I bet a lot of punters will not be too happy with that recent 'Broker' comment. A company I never even heard of ...

[khitchen] 07/9/2017 08:28

How much was Barclays target please

[sogoesit] 07/9/2017 08:19

BOO ... I DOO love YOO

Big BLOO on my CFD trade today!

Who knows it might hit Barclays target sooner than expected (whenever that might be ;-) )

[inv] 07/9/2017 07:27

Should rise 10%

[sogoesit] 07/9/2017 07:26

Impressive NED appointment today, imv.

[telbap] 06/9/2017 19:10

Superb day. Oh how I wish I had held my full 38k buy from 60p.......life I guess.....happy with the 10k I have on total free carry.

[rickyvee] 06/9/2017 18:12

Thanks guys for your replies re Missguided

[cycle2] 06/9/2017 15:28

Some other interesting stats from Alexa comparing with internet norms:
- PLT and NastyGal are mainly accessed at work, rather than at home or school. Boohoo is still high at work but also at home.
- All three brands skew higher than average for young people with a university education but particularly PLT and NastyGal
- All three brands skew very young but PLT particularly to the 18-24 bracket with NastyGal next.
- PLT skews slightly lower income bracket than the others, presumably due to more customers being students.
- Unlike the other brands, Nasty Gal has a strong hispanic appeal in addition to the normal caucasian and African American that all three have.

What I like about this is that the common denominator (cheap trendy clothing) is being applied to markets that aren't going to overlap too much, with re-use of supply chain, technology, infrastructure and warehousing. Each brand appeals to a distinctive audience.

[croasdalelfc] 06/9/2017 13:44

Nastygal sells higher value and presumably higher margin products up to several hundred dollars

[cycle2] 06/9/2017 13:25

I think I read that Missguided is preparing for IPO. In my opinion it's too close to The BooHoo brand offering to make sense as a takeover target and would cost too much at this stage.

[algorithmicx] 06/9/2017 13:24

PrettyLittleThing is almost as big as Missguided in terms of users: PLT generates almost as many users and as much time spent as Missguided in the UK according to ComScore. Missguided generated revenues of c£120m in the UK in FY17. Boohoo guides for PLT to generate total revenues of c£95m in FY18E. We model c£100m in the UK alone and, with growth looking good in the US, we have £155m in total for PLT.

[croasdalelfc] 06/9/2017 13:15

Misguided is private and would probably cost £300-£500m to buy out.

[panic investor] 06/9/2017 13:01

If that's the case it needs an RNS

[rickyvee] 06/9/2017 12:59

Anyone aware of another Manchester based company, namely Missguided? It has nearly as many followers on Insta and Twitter as Boo and some of their product ranges are at the forefront of teen fashion for e.g. their new Barbie range. I would have thought by now this company would be the ideal takeover target...

[croasdalelfc] 06/9/2017 12:57

My view has always been that full year revenue will be between £550m and £570m against Boo previous guidance of circa £470m.The breakdown is Boo £395mPLT £150mNG £20mIf my figures are anywhere near correct then the next guidance will have to reflect that increase as we are past half year. I expect them to increase guidance by a full 10% soon. Remember last year they did that 3-5% at a time albeit 4 times

[tickler] 06/9/2017 12:57

Thanks cycle

[bestace] 06/9/2017 12:19

You don't need clever web tracking analytics to see that the company guidance for PLT of £96m is ridiculously undercooked.

They did over £30m in the first 3 months of the year alone. Just multiply that by 4 and you get to £120m with zero growth, but then add on the fact that growth was last reported at 305% YoY, even if that was from a very low base.

My simple modeling, based on 'only' 200% growth over summer, falling to 150% growth over autumn/winter got me to £155m for the full year (so pretty much bang on Barclay's latest figure) and that could still be conservative.

[cycle2] 06/9/2017 11:48

@tickler - see my post 7296. I examined Google Trends and Alexa data and concluded that NastyGal has yet to take off in a big way but that PLT has been doing amazingly well this year - as now corroborated by Barclays who probably have access to better analytics.

[algorithmicx] 06/9/2017 11:35

Ahead of Boohoo’s 1H results on 27 September, we are upgrading to Overweight.
Since initiating in March, it has been clear to us that Boohoo has a competitive advantage in its supply chain and ecommerce only model that will yield share gains for many years to come, but we haven’t been able to get comfortable enough on forecasts to find the valuation appealing. This has changed. Our differentiated work tracking ComScore and Google Trends data in Boohoo’s P2 (3 months to end Aug) suggests that PrettyLittleThing continues to accelerate sequentially, is reaching material scale in the UK, and will drive upgrades at the results. We upgrade EPS by 4% in FY18/19E and sit 20% ahead of consensus EBITDA in FY18E and 22% in FY19E. Our consistent valuation framework, comparing the multiple to different earnings scenarios, now yields a risk / reward that we think stacks up. We upgrade to OW and raise our PT to 265p, based on increased confidence in current trading.

PrettyLittleThing is almost as big as Missguided in terms of users: PLT generates almost as many users and as much time spent as Missguided in the UK according to ComScore. Missguided generated revenues of c£120m in the UK in FY17. Boohoo guides for PLT to generate total revenues of c£95m in FY18E. We model c£100m in the UK alone and, with growth looking good in the US, we have £155m in total for PLT.

Upgrades matter most (for now): Boohoo is an expensive stock (55.5x P/E in cal 2018). We have been consistent in our approach to valuation: comping it to internet peers on a growth adjusted basis with different earnings scenarios (full detail in note). On our higher forecasts, and with more confidence on upside cases beyond, we think the risk / reward now stacks up. There are still question marks about long term margins beyond FY18E with a new warehouse coming and limited tech spend today. But upgrades trump these concerns in our assessment of the share price performance nearer term.

source:

[tickler] 06/9/2017 11:34

PLT appears to be accelerating fast then, but does anyone have any info as to how Nastygal is performing?