Balanced Commercial Prop... Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 06/2/2023 09:56

Stabilisation is an interesting choice of word, implying the valuers got it about right with the huge mark-downs. Haven't personally seen anything go through at the eg -20% on industrial.

(Sent you a message @nickrl, re debt).

[nickrl] 06/2/2023 09:47

NAV update showed St Chris held its own this qtr helping to temper the NAV decline to 15.1% with divi covered and vacancy down slightly yield a tad above 6% as i write.

They say

"The early stages of 2023 have seen an improvement in sentiment as investment activity has picked up and pricing for core assets within the industrial, retail warehousing and student sub-markets in particular have begun to show initial signs of stabilisation"

[cwa1] 01/2/2023 15:25

Balanced Commercial Property Trust Limited today announces a monthly property income distribution payment in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2022 of 0.4 pence per share as detailed in the schedule below.

The key dates for this interim dividend are as follows:

Ex-Dividend Date
Record Date
Pay Date 09 February 2023
10 February 2023
28 February 2023

[vacendak] 31/1/2023 18:21

Well so long for my allegedly optimitic find.
We are now back below 80p. :(

[nickrl] 30/1/2023 10:11

SHB reporting -2.7% reduction in NAV for the last qtr could be a positive read across for the St Chris part of the BCPT portfolio.

[vacendak] 29/1/2023 15:19

Not us but some poeple in the industry are banging the drum:

[cwa1] 11/1/2023 16:02

And again...

Dividend Declaration

(Classified Regulated Information, under DTR 6 Annex 1 section 2.3)

Balanced Commercial Property Trust Limited today announces a monthly property
income distribution payment in respect of the financial year ended 31 December
2022 of 0.4 pence per share as detailed in the schedule below.

The key dates for this interim dividend are as follows:

Ex-Dividend Date Record Date Pay Date 19 January 2023 20 January 2023 31 January 2023

[cwa1] 02/12/2022 15:52

Dividend Declaration

(Classified Regulated Information, under DTR 6 Annex 1 section 2.3)

Balanced Commercial Property Trust Limited today announces a monthly property income distribution payment in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2022 of 0.4 pence per share as detailed in the schedule below.

The key dates for this interim dividend are as follows:

Ex-Dividend Date
Record Date
Pay Date 15 December 2022
16 December 2022
30 December 2022

[spectoacc] 29/11/2022 11:01

St Chris's is the big hope with BCPT IMO - held them back all the way up the Covid recovery boom, now due to show its value with London as a tourist destination?

Not a holder, but maintain a soft spot for BCPT.

[nickrl] 29/11/2022 10:39

SHB managed to out perform other London retail so perhaps BCPT should employ Bicknells valuer.

[cwa1] 08/11/2022 14:53

Balanced Commercial Property Trust Limited today announces a monthly property income distribution payment in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2022 of 0.4 pence per share as detailed in the schedule below.

The key dates for this interim dividend are as follows:

Ex-Dividend Date
Record Date
Pay Date 17 November 2022
18 November 2022
30 November 2022

[hindsight] 04/11/2022 13:45

@hindsight surely gilt market is reflecting where rates are going rather than being highly correlated to specific rate rises.

"Yes,Gilt yields have significantly improved since, but they'll be going back up as rates rise.

@nickrl Yes agree, I had copied what spectoacc had said and was wondering why he thought that

[spectoacc] 04/11/2022 11:38

Looks a good recovery, well done @vacendak - I was all out in the 70's.

[vacendak] 04/11/2022 11:11

We are slowly bobbing back up.

It was all Kwazi and Liz' fault! :)

[nickrl] 01/11/2022 18:23

SHB/CAPC reported modest declines in their portfolios of 3.6 and 2% respectively compared to BCPTs slight uptick for St Chris. BCPT didn't say anything about asset mgt over the qtr but SHB/CAPC report pretty favourable letting levels for their portfolios so would expect read across.

[nickrl] 31/10/2022 11:58

@hindsight surely gilt market is reflecting where rates are going rather than being highly correlated to specific rate rises. ie pricing of underlying instruments anticipates how high and for how long rates will be at certain maturities so if they've 2nd guessed BoE this week they won't move around that much. So mkt is looking for 0.75% is my guestimate. In the REIT space its 5 year swap that sets tone for medium term borrowing and thats sitting at c4.4% down from 5.7% at the height of Kamikazis chaos although still up over 2.5% from six months ago so debt finance will be over double the cost but at least here they can sit it out for a while yet.

[spectoacc] 31/10/2022 11:36

@1927again - and then took 7 long years to return to the highs, just in nominal terms. How many active in the housing market remember the early 90's? Not that many I bet.

@hindsight - my view is that interest rates aren't peaking until unemployment has significantly risen. The very tight labour market is too wage-price risky for the BoE to reverse course, so I see interest rates going to eg 5%, & staying there. ie being there a year from now, and Gilt yields being right back up (particularly with QT too).

BoE will no doubt tell us on Thurs that rates are peaking at 4% next year, before gently coming back down as inflation falls to 2% in 2024, 1% in 2025.

Don't believe it. The same BoE who said inflation was transitory.

(Unemployment/employment is by far the most interesting macro stat atm IMO. 7m waiting for NHS treatment, 2.5m long-term sick, significant Long Covid. Barring mass immigration, there really isn't an easy answer beyond 1990-style slump).

I'll stop now before I get going again. @nickrl - was a bit surprised RP's took a caning when Offices didn't. Agree re Retail, not much to fall from. Perhaps that argument for Offices too, but they're in structural decline.

Watch that LTV - is it stated net of cash, or net of uncommitted cash? Suspect the former, in which case it's already higher and the Barclays loan will need rolling.

[1917again] 31/10/2022 11:12

Yes agree Spectoacc, its an oil tanker
In June 1988 rates started to rise from the low (in those days ) of 8%, peaking at nearly 15% in Oct 1989. However house prices only started to fall in Q4 1989 in Nationwide building society numbers

[hindsight] 31/10/2022 10:57

Spectoacc, Im a bit lost on your statement below
Agree buybacks should be stopped till things clearer

Yes, Gilt yields have significantly improved since, but they'll be going back up as rates rise.

[nickrl] 31/10/2022 09:53

Not good read across for retail pk owners aka EPIC with valuation down 7.4%. Anyhow it looks like plain vanilla retail is holding its own maybe as it didn't participate much in any post covid bounce back so valuers holding station.

Also BCPT back to their old ways of having the dividend uncovered at the cash level although im sure they will get the industrial assets under build/refurb away easily so should get back to par within a few qtrs as long as other tenants don't go west but who knows as no mention of vacancy rate.

So aggregate drawn loans unchanged but LTV deteriorated from 17.3 to 20%. Its just about possible to avoid having to extend the £50n loan if Barclays are going to change the terms. Its also entirely possible peak interest rates will have past by the time the term loans needs renewing and whilst they won't get it at 3.3% again 4.5-5.5% seems possible but thats way off over the horizon to be too much to worry about just yet.

Its close to my 6% threshold so stays on the watchlist.

[spectoacc] 31/10/2022 08:17

Completely missed it, thanks.

My view is that that quarter of -6.7% capital values had all of one week of mini Budget non-Budget fiasco in it. Yes, Gilt yields have significantly improved since, but they'll be going back up as rates rise.


"We are already beginning to witness more property coming to the
market as pension funds look to raise liquidity and this is likely to put
further downward pressure on future valuations"

Would have thought the UTs more relevant than pension funds, who are surely over their LDI debacle?


Wow:

"The equivalent yield on the Company's
industrial and logistics properties moved out 65 basis points resulting in a
fall in value of 12 per cent. The occupational market remains resilient
recording historically low rates of vacant space."

Just 65bps led to a 12% fall in capital values.


Also repeating CTPT's line:

"Whilst downward valuation movements in the industrial and retail warehousing
sectors are meaningful in isolation, they represent only a partial reversal of
capital gains generated in the first half of 2022 of 16.4 per cent and 21.9 per
cent respectively."

which makes me think there's a lot further to fall! :) How much of that is in the price already is the question - quite a lot.

St Chris's at worst flatlined as tourists returned, I do think that's a significant differentiator for BCPT. No other small REIT has that offsetting angle (ie weaker £, more footfall). Retail been on its a*se so doesn't have the same amount to give back.

Surprised Offices held up, that fall still to come IMO.


BCPT aren't over-geared by any means, but you have to wonder where interest rates & borrowing rates will be in say a year's time:

"There is a £260 million term loan in place with L&G which matures in December
2024. The Company also has a £50 million term loan with Barclays, along with an
additional undrawn £50 million revolving credit facility. The Barclays facility
expires on 31 July 2023, with the option of a one-year extension. As at 30
September 2022, the Company's loan to value, net of cash ('LTV') was 20.0 per
cent. "

Wouldn't personally be buying back shares, even at this notional discount. Some of that cash already spoken for as detailed in the statement; there's no indication of whether the interest rate changes if they extend the Barclays term loan a year; and 2 years to December 2024 will come around quickly - the last time the UTs gated it took 18 months or more for them to sell enough to ungate.