Blur Group Share Discussion Threads

[bookbroker] 19/11/2014 11:36

That $310mln is not booking, it is what is listed on the platform, my main gripe is that they have used this excuse about large projects before, now it's clear and inevitable that they take longer to complete, but the co. must be aware of that fact, so why mention it unless you are simply massaging the report, their forecasts are clearly difficult to project, so it is likely they will continue to be erratic. That does not however mean this co. will struggle to achieve it aims, but the number of projects that continue to be converted into revenue streams are more important going forward, hopefully they can reduce staff numbers more or at least make them more efficient to enable the right balance!

[haydock] 19/11/2014 11:33

This represents a fourfold growth against the same point in 2013, with all indicators that EBITDA breakeven will be achieved in Q4 2015 along with positive cash flow from Q1 2016.

Guidence on growth 400% will do nicely.

Guidence on profits going forward, not qualified by the big projects comment.

This comment is really only an extension of the delayed booking of profits procedure now in place.
2014. will contain some revenue from 2013 & some was already to be held back to 2015.

The relevant news is really : a few big projects.

All the new CFO making it hopefully dead clear to the wider mkt.

It's a platform growing fast, thats the attraction to the big boys with the $ to throw away.

[j777j] 19/11/2014 11:09

Amazon,which incidentally is a Blur customer, loses money hand over fist,yet has a market cap of $148 billion.

What are people paying for?


To say Blur's platform is worthless is the kind of ludicrous comment I have come to expect from some who are not even invested here.


6,329 projects and $310 million of project value is a great achievement in a short period of time.

It shows they have taken a concept and are turning it into reality.

That 1/3 are repeating is also very good news.

Compare with where they were this time last year


2,778 projects and $50.8 million of project value



Of course it will be a bumpy ride,but they have brought in a new experienced cfo,a chairman coming next.Plenty to be optimistic about.

The big projects have always been a double edged sword,but I am sure they will work through those growing pains too in due course.

Delays are not cancellations.If anything, they will flatter next year's numbers to a greater degree.

[droid] 19/11/2014 10:54

I live quite close to Exeter and can confirm that Blur were the first tenant in the new Science Park. It is generally assumed that they were offered a very soft rent to get the ball rolling. The second building there isn't even finished yet.

[bookbroker] 19/11/2014 10:30

Forget the Blue chips, that's just hot air, costs here are the key, hopefully the new FD. will be ruthless about controlling them, I expect them to reduce them further by ensuring that the staff are earning their bread, otherwise no point in having them, good to see they have reduced them from year end, not sure what Spurrier had been doing for the co. and this move to Exeter will certainly enable them to better control them, having said that London maybe a better place to do business, not sure what these investor conferences bring to the table however except create another expense to be absorbed, it is possible as regards what Yump stated that the transition to Exeter involved a considerable one off cost, important thing is to keep generating interest in the ability of the platform to create opportunity, maybe someone could comment on the $25mln. since September, does that show that projects listed are still growing at a fair clip?

[yump] 19/11/2014 10:24

That tells investors absolutely nothing of worth on which to make a positive judgement.

The reality is this:
It will take a revenue of around £20mln for a half year to prove operational gearing that might make the business viable.

At interims:

£5.5mln revenue gave £1.5mln gross profit.
Then take off the £6.5mln of admin. costs.

It will take around 4 lots of 1.5mln to break even on the 6.5mln of admin. costs.

That's a half year revenue of £20mln ++
That's assuming the 6.5mln of admin. costs stays the same, which is highly unlikely.

Hence my comment on the platform being worth nothing (to a buyer) on current evidence.

[haydock] 19/11/2014 09:31

if we adopt the point of view not worrying about the day to day cash flow.
Cash flow that exists & will be accounted for eventually.

What is the news they are going to shout about tomorrow ?


Trading Update Summary

blur announces that the business is currently in line with management expectations in respect of new project bookings, ahead of plan for new and repeat enterprise projects, and ahead of its plan on costs due to the adoption of the blur 4.0 platform by Enterprise customers.

Costs ahead of plan.

Repeat bookings, many from Blue chip companies ahead of plan.

?

[yump] 19/11/2014 09:08

There's no doubt the business is growing, but just looking back at the interims, you have to go half way through before you get to the actual loss. The first part is full of stuff that sounds positive.

Then when you look, it turns out that the increase in revenue is wiped out by a massive £6+ million of admin. costs. Way, way higher than comparative period 2013.

So the point about the platform having value is pretty marginal imo, if the whole thing can't run at higher volumes without whopping great admin. increases.

They really need to fess-up, as they say and put the pain at the start of all these RNS's, not waffle on about operational gearing. If revenue increases are wiped out by admin. costs, there isn't any operational gearing - its nonsense. Then they might get some credibility back.

Every time I read an RNS, it reminds me of one of those Apprentice candidates with their personal introduction.

[haydock] 19/11/2014 09:02

Just look at all those buys about 60p.

They are all nice fat round numbers, not the hall marks of the tiddler pi's who sold in a herd when the mkt opened.

Agree as usual J777J.

[hamidahamida] 19/11/2014 09:00

2nd Profits warning dressed up as a triumph just as the 1st profits warning. Bunch of LiarsWhat is really beneath this rns they have warned twice in last few months with the same excuse and they have the cheek to say that they're going to meet the profit expectations they are telling porkies if they can't meet the numbers i.e. the revenue numbers and the bookings how are they going to become profitable just not possible.

[bookbroker] 19/11/2014 08:55

There is certainly enough cash for the next two years providing they maintain the momentum of revenue bookings, and really control their costs, Letts should stick to the marketing side, as I've said before he is only fit for that role, leave the running of the business to qualified personnel, it's annoying to read the statement today as one does not wish to see anything other than positive when one sees where we were twelve months ago, I sometimes wonder whether they have deliberately applied the brakes a little to streamline the quality of the platform, it's still a relatively young co., and the hype was totally out of quilter with reality through 2013!

[j777j] 19/11/2014 08:49

Blur has a significant first mover advantage and I bet it is worth a lot more than £16 million,ex cash.

[haydock] 19/11/2014 08:46

Whilst revenue growth has been strong, a small number of large projects, which have been submitted to the exchange, will not kick off until early 2015, which will impact the Group's revenue and therefore profitability for the full year ending 31 December 2014.

The new head of Finance taking control, if there is even the slightest fall in expectations get it out soon.

owever, there is no way anyone can calculate the profits for 2014, as some of profits are those held back from 2013, there are no real parameters valid for the coming figs.

The good news is really in the statement: large projects, & clearly this is the key.
Lets say it again large projects, that is what Blur needs going forwards.

The large projects will swamp the small projects in cash terms.

Companies like this go through growth spasms & the key is to have the correct strong accounting & control.

Hopefully Blus has put this in place,& can concentrate now on getting the details of the growth of the platform to the mkt from tomorrow.

That is really what matters, now they have indicated that the financial controls are in place, which is the real purpose of this RNS.

Nobody who wants to buy this platform will care less about profit, at this stage, it's the platform that counts, it's working & growing.

Put a value on the platform & the concept, not the cash flow & the break even.

[bookbroker] 19/11/2014 08:30

In the cold light of day at least project bookings are up and costs are being brought down, interested to see a reduction in staff numbers as result of the new platform, disappointed by the rollover of revenue into 2015 nonetheless, however at least they have an FD with some experience of managing this kind of business, Letts hopefully is finally keeping his trap firmly closed, this co. tried to grow too fast too quick and a better balance emerging, there is certainly sufficient cash in the business to see them through to 2016, still pretty hacked off with this statement!

[salpara111] 19/11/2014 08:26

I am not invested and clearly there is a lot of scepticism, however it does appear that they are gaining momentum, I guess the critical question is whether they will need another cash call next year.
I am keeping them on my monitor but no need to get on board for another 3 months.

[hamidahamida] 19/11/2014 08:02

£30million market cap is way overpriced Should be around £5 million (10p)This has no credibility left don't believe a word they say bunch of LIARS

[hamidahamida] 19/11/2014 07:57

2nd warning in few moths Burning cash they will be back for more cash next year

[blah blah] 19/11/2014 07:55

Ex the cash it is burning you mean?

On a brighter note, if you are convinced of the potential it looks like you will get the chance to buy some cheaper today.

[hamidahamida] 19/11/2014 07:54

Writing was on the wallIt was impossible to go from $4 million revenue to $17 million Not worth more then 10p

[j777j] 19/11/2014 07:54

Ex cash the business is valued at just £16 million.

It will get taken over if it stays so low.

[someuwin] 19/11/2014 07:50

Profit warning.

[j777j] 19/11/2014 07:39

Still on course to be EBITDA breakeven by Q4 2015 and cashflow positive Q1 2016,$20 million cash,costs down with headcount thanks to Blur 4.0
Bookings have quadrupled in 12 months,so they are clearly doing something right and large corporate names are participating as well as providing repeat business.




Trading Update Summary

blur announces that the business is currently in line with management expectations in respect of new project bookings, ahead of plan for new and repeat enterprise projects, and ahead of its plan on costs due to the adoption of the blur 4.0 platform by Enterprise customers.

The Group continues on its already announced and planned path towards EBITDA breakeven and positive cash flow. The Group has cash resources of $20m to comfortably sustain it through to profitability and cash flow positive.

Whilst revenue growth has been strong, a small number of large projects, which have been submitted to the exchange, will not kick off until early 2015, which will impact the Group's revenue and therefore profitability for the full year ending 31 December 2014.

Operationally, we remain pleased with progress, with Project Bookings remaining strong, especially from the Enterprise customers, with a total of 6,329 projects submitted to the Exchange as at 17 November 2014, representing a combined value of $310m. This represents a fourfold growth against the same point in 2013, with all indicators that EBITDA breakeven will be achieved in Q4 2015 along with positive cash flow from Q1 2016.

Growth in Bookings from Enterprise Customers

So far in Q4 2014 the majority of bookings (with around 1/3rd of these being repeat customers) have come from major brands, with the most recent notable additions being Amazon, Tesco and Argos.

Business Model Scalability

The roll-out of the blur 4.0 platform has proved that the business scales without significantly adding to costs. Business growth is being achieved with a headcount that today numbers 67 against 78 at the end of FY 2013

[blah blah] 19/11/2014 07:26

Hidden profit warning in there - revenue ok but profits impacted by some large projects not kicking off until 2015. That they can claim they are on course for break even in Q4 2015 when they can't even predict the current quarter is beyond me.