Bloomsbury Publishing Share Discussion Threads

[rainmaker] 13/5/2012 14:38

Re Bloomsbury Publishing(BMY),currently around 110p and results for the 12 months to 28 February due for release on 22 May 2012. Here's a link to a piece in the Guardian which may explain the recent weakness in the share price, the key quote is "The story of [2011] is a decline in physical sales almost being compensated for by a strong performance in digital," said Publishers Association chief executive Richard Mollet



I remember Bloomsbury saying that they expected that the net effect of the boom in digital publishing being that overall, Customers would spend more money on books,both physical and digital,rather than less. Obviously this article does not bear this out, or maybe, Bloomsbury is not typical of the overall market.

I remain confident that the share price will make progress from current levels and a historically very low rating, given recent earnings enhancing acquisitions with synergy cost savings and Bloomsbury's knack of extending a brand -see purchase of Wisden and subsequent launch in India.Then there are strong digital sales from their back catalogue-see launch of Harry Potter on line in April, the 7 book series sold 450mln copies.The purchase of religious Publisher,Continuum came with 7,000 titles so there's great potential for digitising there as well-maybe Pope John Paul greatest hits

regards

[rainmaker] 13/5/2012 13:05

A link to an update from the Investors Chronicle on their annual bargain portfolio released February.I bought a copy,it's the current issue 11 to 17 May so I'm surprised that it can be accessed on line and hasn't been locked.The portfolio is up 6% against a 3% drop in the market.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2012/05/08/comment/simon-thompson/small-cap-value-shares-worth-buying-WEx15dAR9THgGrDOc31ruM/article.html

They make a good point that Bloomsbury's German business sold for £3.6mln was heavily loss making.In the last trading update, I remember this business as the only one that disappointed as all other parts of the group were performing well.

Re Mallett there're clearly behind the curve, talking about the sale of the New Bond Street lease and the more than halving of the London rent bill and the discount to net assets.However no mention of the signs of an imminent cyclical upturn in the main decorative arts business, Mallett's efforts to capitalise on the burgeoning Chinese market now the worlds largest,the success and bright outlook of the Masterpiece exhibition,no mention of the proposed sale of restoration subsidiary, Hatfield's Property and the inevitable conclusion the business will move in-house,nothing about the £3.3mln inventory write down in 2009 and how it should be added back in when assessing the long term value of the business etc,etc,etc


Stamp and celebrity autograph Dealer, Stanley Gibbons(SGI)has performed best with a 26% rise to 228p. It isn't and wasn't a true bargain in the Ben Graham sense in February. I and a few others on this thread bought this share at 17p in early 2003 and it 15 bagged over the next 5 years.

[zoolook] 03/5/2012 15:20

That level of fluctuation is peanuts

[rainmaker] 03/5/2012 11:59

well just a few days later, BMY is now 106.5p/110p and it's very difficult to understand why it ever reached 103p/105p (or for that matter why we're trading at anything like current levels) but that's the market for you-ruled by waves of emotions.

regards

[rainmaker] 30/4/2012 14:57

IMHO "Mr Market" is in an irrationally very bad mood as far as Bloomsbury Publishing(BMY)currently 103p/105p is concerned, earnings estimates for the year to Feb 2013 and Feb 2014 put the shares on a rating of just 9.3 times falling to 8.6 with chunky dividend yields of 5.1% and 5.5% respectively. It's been said before but there is clearly earnings growth here, through acquisitions and the boom in e-publishing. I have my finger hovering over the buy button. I would have bought at a higher level but I don't believe in averaging up.

regards

[rainmaker] 24/4/2012 19:13

Thanks BT-it's a bit of a mystery why we're still trading at current levels. I believe you're right in that the results will prove to be a catalyst for a re-rating. I think if you look back at the previous announcement the Company said that they were on course to meet Broker targets.I still believe that the Investing Public generally have underestimated the huge demand for e-books and this factor will be increasingly acknowledged by the Market in the next few years.

regards

[bogotatrader] 23/4/2012 20:27

Rainmaker.....22nd May results so in absence of any deal realated rns's before then will be catalyst for re-rating.....might be a run up to the results....need to monitor price movements over next months and weakness on back of weaker broader markets could create the perfect buying opportunity....

[rainmaker] 18/4/2012 18:32

Welcome back BT-I seriously thought about selling all my positions in BMY at 120p,as it appeared to overbought then re-investing the proceeds at lower levels once we had had a technical retracement-I expected a 50% retracement to around 108p. Trading against a position is something I rarely do unless I'm convinced that 1)the shares will fall back and 2)the longer term prognosis is substantially higher prices.In the end I decided not to because I feared the RNSs that we have since received would send prices sharply higher but incredibly this hasn't happened.

It's getting faintly ridiculous as we've had two broker upgrades due to the Fairchild acquisition and the on line release of HP and estimates for 2013 by 16% in the last month or so. At 110p,we're currently trading at less than 10 times prospective earnings for 2013.I think that estimates are v likely to be on the low side as Brokers fail to appreciate the huge popularity and staying power of Harry Potter-note that there's a huge HP themed attraction in Orlando Florida that rivals Disney in popularity and in the UK there's a Warner Bros Studio Tour in Hertfordshire.







regards

[bogotatrader] 18/4/2012 14:40

Rainmaker....back looking at this one....having sliced out at higher levels on trading grounds....now back to more attractive levels.......will wait for weak days if I have liquidity to buy in again for the big re-rate...

[rainmaker] 18/4/2012 00:52

IMHO it's very easy to imagine Bloomsbury's share price trading at 160p+ since that's only 14 times prospective earnings for a share that historically trades between 14 and 21 times earnings.

regards

[rainmaker] 18/4/2012 00:36

Generally,I think Investors have very short memories when comes to the extraordinary success of the Harry Potter book series.A publishing sensation,as at June 2011, the seven book series had sold 450mln copies,had been translated into 67 languages, with one launch selling 12mln copies within 24 hours and the last four releases consecutively setting records for the fastest selling book in history.Potentially Bloomsbury could sell another 450mln e-books.After all, we are at the very height of the boom in electronic publishing.


Within the last few weeks the e-book versions were released on line, selling 1mln copies within a matter of days.Bearing this in mind, I've just seen a further increase in Bloomsbury's earnings estimates, which were recently raised following their acquisition of Fairchild.The estimate for the year to 28 Feb 2012 has been raised to 10.76p and the forecast for 2013 by 7.5% from 10.59p to 11.39p with a 5.47p dividend which gives a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%





Pinch me I'm dreaming.IMHO it's impossible to believe that the next major move in Bloomsbury's share price is anything other than up.



regards


regards

[rainmaker] 12/4/2012 14:28

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Thanks 18BT, I was beginning to get a bit lonely but us Value Investors are naturally psychologically well equipped to deal with isolation! Indeed we've got a prospective dividend yield of 4.5% predicted to growth at 7% and 9% for the next two years so if forecasts are proved to be correct, if an Investor bought now he would get an effective 5.25% dividend yield in two years time.

IMHO short term,next major move should be to 134p/137p,around the high May last year. I've just found some stats for Bloomsbury that I prepared for the period March 2003 to March 2011(I'll post it next), before they changed their year end and they've traded on an average high p/e of 20.71 and an average low p/e of 14.42 so that equates to a value range of 152.70p to 219.3p so IMHO, as you say, there should be loads of up from current levels.

regards

[18bt] 12/4/2012 11:26

Just bought another 5,000 on the back of some small earnings upgrades in the past few months and a yield on the final dividend of over 3.5%. I can now see suprises to the upside on this share for the first time for 3 or 4 years.

[rainmaker] 12/4/2012 00:07

Re Bloomsbury Publishing which closed 109.25p bid, 112p offered

From the Mail On Line, 11 April-

"The Harry Potter franchise was launched in eBook form last week and sales topped £1million within days. Fans spent £231-a-minute buying digital versions of the stories by J. K. Rowling."

regards

[rainmaker] 10/4/2012 19:27

Rainmaker - 4 Apr'12 - 02:19 - 3342 of 3351 edit


Just looking at Bloomsbury Publishing (BMY), currently 110p/113p, recent acquistion of Fairchild, using their pre tax profits of US$706k,a £/$ exchange rate of 1.6, a corporate tax rate of 25% and ignoring various synergies, I estimate that the purchase will add £300k to Bloomsbury's bottom line so expect Broker upgrades of 10.17p to 10.57 for the year to 28/2/13 and 11.07p to 11.47p for 2014.So on that basis we're currently we're trading at just 10.5 and 10 times earnings for 2013 and 2014 respectively.

regards

I've just seen updated consensus earnings forecasts for Bloomsbury Publishing(BMY) as follows-

year to 28 Feb 2013 10.59p

year to 28 Feb 2014 11.50p

The prospective dividend yield is 4.5% and is forecast to grow at 7% and 9% for the years 2013 and 2014 respectively.

check them on link below-you'll need to register if you haven't done so already but it's free-





regards

[rainmaker] 04/4/2012 01:20

Just looking at Bloomsbury Publishing (BMY), currently 110p/113p, recent acquistion of Fairchild, using their pre tax profits of US$706k,a £/$ exchange rate of 1.6, a corporate tax rate of 25% and ignoring various synergies, I estimate that the purchase will add £300k to Bloomsbury's bottom line so expect Broker upgrades of 10.17p to 10.57 for the year to 28/2/13 and 11.07p to 11.47p for 2014.So on that basis we're currently we're trading at just 10.5 and 10 times earnings for 2013 and 2014 respectively.

regards

[rainmaker] 02/4/2012 14:19

Another earnings enhancing acquisition for Bloomsbury Publishing (BMY)as per announcement today, share price up today now 110p/113p-

Net cash £7mln in the last results but one Broker estimated it had risen to £14mln over Christmas so the Company are easily able to pay for this purchase from exisiting resources.

Acquisition of Fairchild Books
Share this article PrintAlert
TIDMBMY
RNS Number : 6249A
Bloomsbury Publishing PLC
02 April 2012
Bloomsbury Publishing Plc
Acquisition of Fairchild Books
Bloomsbury Publishing Plc ("Bloomsbury") announces that its US subsidiary, Bloomsbury Publishing Inc, has today completed the purchase of Fairchild Books from Fairchild Fashion Media, a unit of Conde Nast, for $6,500,000. The consideration will be paid in cash from existing cash balances in three equal annual installments, commencing at completion.
For the year-ended 31 December 2011, Fairchild Books generated net profit before tax of $706,000 and as at 31 December 2011 had gross assets of $7,567,000.
Fairchild Books, based in New York, is a market-leading publisher of textbooks and educational resources for students of fashion, merchandising, retailing and interior design. It has a strong history dating back to the nineteenth century and a world-class reputation for producing student materials for the fashion and design industries.
The Fairchild Books list is highly complementary to Bloomsbury's existing academic list in the Visual Arts, which was bolstered by the acquisition of Berg Publishers in 2008, the launch of the award-winning Berg Fashion Library www.bergfashionlibrary.com in 2010 and the acquisition of a fashion photography archive in 2011.
Following the acquisition, the business will be managed by Kathryn Earle, Bloomsbury's Head of Visual Arts, and will report in to Bloomsbury's Academic & Professional division.
Bloomsbury's successful integration of the Continuum business, purchased in July 2011, was the cornerstone acquisition of the Academic & Professional division, providing it with critical mass and excellent opportunities for organic growth and digital exploitation.
The acquisition will bolster Bloomsbury's US presence and raise its profile through an association with a leading brand in a market niche where it is already well established. Fairchild Books' renown as a textbook publisher will create synergies with complementary products published under the Berg imprint that are aimed at more advanced students and researchers. The combined entity provides significant opportunities for new digital initiatives.
Nigel Newton, Chief Executive of Bloomsbury commented:
"The acquisition of Fairchild Books is part of Bloomsbury's long term strategy to increase its Academic Publishing turnover in the USA, the largest market for English language textbooks. There is an excellent fit between Fairchild Book's list and Bloomsbury's visual arts lists.
Gina Sanders, the President and CEO of Fairchild Fashion Media said:
"We are delighted that Fairchild Books has found such a fitting strategic partner in Bloomsbury Publishing Inc., a leading international academic publisher. At the same time, this sale will enable Fairchild Fashion Media to further expand upon our core businesses, including WWD/WWD.com, Style.com, Style.com/Print, FN, Beauty Inc, Menswear, Fairchild Summits, WWD Magic and FN Platform."
For further information, please contact:

Daniel de Belder/Rosanne Perry, Pelham Bell
Pottinger [phone]
Notes for Editors:
Bloomsbury Publishing Plc- Bloomsbury Publishing is a leading independent publishing house with companies in London, New York, Berlin, India and Sydney. Its founder and Chief Executive is Nigel Newton. Its four divisions are:
Bloomsbury Academic & Professional Publishing - Fairchild Books will become part of the Bloomsbury Academic & Professional Division, with Jonathan Glasspool as Managing Director. Bloomsbury Academic & Professional specialises in the humanities, social sciences, law and tax. In 2012, it will be publishing online the digitized edition of the Winston Churchill Archive and Drama Online (with Faber). The division includes Berg Publishers, Methuen Drama, Arden Shakespeare, Bristol Classical Press, Continuum and Bloomsbury Professional.
Bloomsbury Information- includes a number of information databases for electronic as well as print publications. Publications include The Encarta World English Dictionary, The English Language Teaching Database, The Macmillan English Dictionary, Business: The Ultimate Resource, and others. Bloomsbury also provides management services for Bloomsbury Qatar Foundation Publishing, a division of the Qatar Foundation.
Bloomsbury Adult Publishing- a substantial list of successful authors including Khaled Hosseini, William Boyd, Margaret Atwood, Donna Tartt, Elizabeth Gilbert, Richard Ford, David Guterson, John Irving, Jay McInerney, Ben Schott, Anthony Bourdain, William Dalrymple, Ben Macintyre, Dava Sobel, Mark Kurlansky, Chelsea Handler, Heston Blumenthal, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall and recent Man Booker Prize winner Howard Jacobson. The trade division also features significant reference projects including Wisden, Who's Who, Reed's Nautical and Whitaker's.
Bloomsbury Children's Publishing- a highly successful list including authors such as J.K.Rowling, Neil Gaiman, Debi Gliori, Alyxandra Harvey, Carrie Jones, Shannon Hale, Louis Sachar and Benjamin Zephaniah.
Fairchild Books - Fairchild Books is the world's leading publisher of textbooks and educational resources for students, professionals and aficionados of fashion, merchandising, retail and interior design. Fairchild Books has a unique understanding of the fashion and design worlds. For over 60 years, Fairchild Books has published many of the preeminent titles in the fields of fashion and interior design. The vast majority of Fairchild's titles are published in the classic college publishing model in which texts are adopted by professors or their departments to be used for specific courses.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END
ACQITMJTMBIMBJT

[rainmaker] 01/4/2012 13:13

Those details of Kindle Christmas sales in the UK-


http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tech/news/a357756/amazon-reports-bumper-kindle-christmas-sales.html





regards

[rainmaker] 01/4/2012 12:35

The Harry Potter bandwagon rolls on with the opening of "the making of Harry Potter Warner Brothers studio tour" Just a few days ago Bloomsbury launched the e-book version of the record breaking book series-over 450 million copies has been sold to date with one release selling 12mln copies in the first 24 hours!With one in 40 People in the UK receiving a Kindle e-book reader at Christmas I think it's a no-brainer what effect this will have on the Bloomsbury Publishing share price. Now we've had a technical retracement,I expect to see Broker upgrades and 140p in the coming weeks.







regards

[rainmaker] 29/3/2012 13:01

If we apply the current prospective earnings of 10.32p to the historic value range rating of 14 to 21 times we get values of 144.5p to 216.0p. From memory Brokers, Peel Hunt and investec have a price targets at the bottom end of that range, of 150p and 175p respectively and IMHO,given the Company's growth prospects, that's a realistic expectation for the share price this year.

regards

[rainmaker] 29/3/2012 12:25

Great find 18BT,many thanks. I see the German sale has been completed -see today's RNS. I think we're just having a 50% retracement for the move from circa 92p on thin volume so I expect a drop to around 107p possibly a bit lower before we move to 137p.

I don't Investors generally fully appreciate that 1)there is growth here(dividends will continue to grow at circa 5/6%) through the boom in e-books, Bloomsbury's acquisitions with synergetic cost cost savings(see the Continuum purchase) and 2)the potential for e-book sales.

We're trading at less that 11 times prospective earnings. It's been said that Bloomsbury's historic value range of 14 to 21 times earnings(the figures of price/book and price/sales give an even higher range)is misleading because of Bloomsbury's large cash balances ie if they didn't have net cash then they would have traded on a lower rating. I checked back and they only had large net cash, in proportion to their market cap, in recent years when they haven't had a high rating so this hypothosis doesn't hold true.

reagrds

[18bt] 29/3/2012 06:54

This article made no impact on the share price which was surprising:



Whilst we knew it was coming, the pricing confirmation and the fact that it can be read on Kindles is very positive.

[rainmaker] 05/3/2012 23:12

Here come those Bloomsbury Publishing(BMY) broker upgrades-

Year ending 28 Feb 2013-9.79p to 10.17p

Year ending 28 Feb 2014-10.70p to 11.07p


In a generally weak market the share price has remained steady at 121p with good buying vastly outweighing sales.



regards

[rainmaker] 04/3/2012 21:43

Re Bloomsbury Publishing(BMY) I should add that the deal to sell their German Subsidiary is only expected to be completed in the next few weeks-see announcement.However this shouldn't hold back the share price in the meantime.

regards