Block Energy Share Discussion Threads

[lastoneout] 02/4/2019 14:15

270.4 million

[miahkaysor] 02/4/2019 14:09

How many shares are in issue? Anyone?

[gregpeck7] 02/4/2019 14:06

1 mm left at 6.2 will this go back to 7 today? No surprise if it has a good afternoon as the news soaks in.

[hazl] 02/4/2019 13:58

Lunch time often happens....looks as though it's climbing again now though.

[toogood4me] 02/4/2019 13:34

BAgpuss just like you told someone on the Thomas cook thread

[toogood4me] 02/4/2019 13:34

What a complete and utter childish attempt at de-ramping ... You pathetic fool ..

[toogood4me] 02/4/2019 13:33

Bagpuss you clown Pmsl

[bagpuss62] 02/4/2019 13:22

Back down to 4.5p

[edgein] 02/4/2019 13:04

Well we'll not dwell on off-topic companies. But one discovery well doesn't make an economic accumulation and £1+ seems very optimistic on one test result regardless of expected P50 etc and the fact that a find like that would takes years to appraise and even longer to develop. But perhaps it may have spiked, we'll never know.

As for BLOE, I agree this looks like a game changer well with the stable production rate to date. Even though the well is restricted by the test equipment I don't expect these wells to be tested open hole for max flow rate at any time. I agree the IP rates are likely to be somewhere between the previously expected flow rates and the test rate. The PTA will give them significant insight into the reservoir dynamics of the lateral, close to and further into the formation. Yes the netbacks on both oil and gas discovered look excellent. Its fully understandable with the ease to market they look at the oil prone formations first. But as you suggest the 100mmboe of gas in contingent is significant and FRR did boast about having ridiculous amounts of TCF in place on their blocks. Georgia certainly does have world class gas potential and a fairly well developed gas pipe network.

Regards,
Ed.

[spangle93] 02/4/2019 12:48

Hi, o/t ref PANR. The in place volumes estimated for the Ugnu and West Sak were around 424 MMbbl, vs 25 MMbbl pre-drill estimate for the Brookian. I was just factoring up, had it been successful. The Brookian result also de-risks to a degree another prospect in the licence (Phecda) of similar age and seismic attributes.

Back on BLOE
Yes, delighted with the results. Even more delighted not to find 100 posts when I checked in, so hopefully the 1p profit guys have gone to be replaced by longer term value seekers ;-) As I posted early this morning, I don't expect production rate to be as high as 1100 when the well is put on production, but nonetheless it's clearly going to switch the company economics right around, and reduce the risk of discounted placings.

Ultimately, as I know you recognise, while the oil is great and the economics of it in Georgia are exceptional, the gas resources are the prize that have the potential to make a bigger step change.

.. let alone any M&A activity like he's hinted about in recent videos... much more from a position of strength now

GLA

[edgein] 02/4/2019 12:34

Spangle,

No wasn't in for Nico-1 well, was watching back then. Did OK on FRR years later was just in and out of those while most of my porty was north sea based at the time. Oh good man, no harm in focusing on the risks, there's plenty of them about. Didn't realise you were a holder here. I'm sure you're delighted with the results to date and are looking forward to the re-entry and sidetrack of future wells.

Not really sure that PANR would have went above £1 on a short term well test. But that's a very bullish view of that given the experience of 88e and RMP had on the same slopes. Only testing 6ft of the deeper formation doesn't exactly inspire confidence over there either. But you win some and lose some. Hopefully a very different outcome here, well it has been so far.

Regards,
Ed.

[spangle93] 02/4/2019 12:23

Edge - ref 588
indeed, totally agree that small land rigs can do those type of operations... but genuine workover rigs lack the means to rotate the drill string. And yes, I remembered that FRR had many well problems, sorry if you lost out as a result.

Finally, third sorry if my initial post was taken as criticism - that wasn't the intent.

Two of the things I've learned in this fascinating industry are
1. There are many risks and uncertainties, most of which can be identified and mitigated to a lesser or greater degree, but some are not, or can not, be recognised beforehand. That's why given the choice, if risked economics are similar, drillers would prefer to start from surface
2. There are many generalities but few absolutes!

Ref strategy: One of the reasons that I followed BLOE from IPO without investing until a month ago was that the program they embarked on was riddled with industry-proven trip hazards, from re-entry of wells for which they had limited data of variable quality (see Gustavson), through use of new technology, customs regulations, new operators with no experience in the area, and so on. Plus the CEO looks so wet behind the ears in interviews that there might be mushrooms there, and isn't in the same league as some at inspiring confidence ;-) By the time they got to the point of drilling the first sidetrack, they had established a good enough track record and reduced risk remaining sufficiently to warrant confidence. By then I had to pay 20% more than their lowest point, but I think that was well worth it. They've done very well to be less than 1Q behind the schedule they set out with; it's a credit to their technical and operations leaders.

While as you note the Eocene behaves very much like a carbonate in having dual permeability, it's actually tuff/volcanics/sandstones - the natural fractures possibly arise from all the tectonic activity over the millenia (but that's my interpretation).

And yes, it would have been nicer if PANR had demonstrated flowing oil from the Ugnu and West Sak, as then double-digit share prices would have been left far behind. But it is what it is, and the Brookian results surpassed pre-test expectations and created sufficient reserves to make the entire deal worthwhile, let alone the derisking of other plays. The share price response is more disappointing, as it implies the net value of the tests is nil.

Best of luck

[edgein] 02/4/2019 11:54

"If the well is in good condition" is the key phrase on which we'll both agree - the big question is whether they know it is before they re-enter it.

They cannot tell anything about the well integrity and bottom hold condition before they re-enter it! but it costs a lot less to re-enter a well rather than drill another so worth a look don't you think. Once the well integrity checks are complete, shoe in place, kicked off etc and sidetrack drilled all they need to do is run the slotted liner. Bob's yer uncle, 2-3 months and $m saved compared to drilling and casing new wells to 7-8000ft.

"The pressure in a second West Rustavi well, number 38, has been bled off and is now ready for re-entering and sidetracking subject to results at well 16a."

We'll know in due course if its in as good a condition to the sidetracking point as 16a. Who knows by then you may even be a shareholder.

Regards,
Ed.

[toogood4me] 02/4/2019 11:33

These mms need to get a grip

[newtothisgame3] 02/4/2019 11:31

"Cantor Fitzgerald ‘An excellent result from the company’s first horizontal sidetrack. While production rate will depend on analysis of the various tests still ongoing, this bodes very well for the wider potential across the field’" #bloe @BlockEnergyplc

[edgein] 02/4/2019 11:28

Hi Spangle,

Many small land rigs rigs are used for workover purposes and can drill out cement plugs for example and short low pressure sidetrack and recompletion operations etc. For example CERP tend to use small land rigs rather than dedicated workover rigs. No I guess you're not going into the merits of BLOE's strategy. :) Perhaps PANR has dampened your mood. FRR only drilled one deep well in Georgia before they ran into tech difficulties and didn't have the cash to complete as they're hugely expensive in this region (from memory it was something like $20m to 5-6000m). All the other wells are shallow.

I would imagine that they're carbonates rather than sandstone, more likely predominately carbonates with some interbedded sandstones and shale. The merits of the re-entry strategy is clear due to the results of 16a and the preparation that has been made to 38 pre sidetrack.

Regards,
Ed.

[miahkaysor] 02/4/2019 11:23

30p in few weeks time, mark my word!Nai.dyor.etc

[spangle93] 02/4/2019 11:13

Hi Edgein interesting answer

A workover rig by definition can't drill cos it doesn't have a rotary table - it's just used for pulling and running completions - but listen, I'm not going to go through the post. I'm not sure of the depth of the FRR wells you mention - maybe they are quite deep, in which situation sidetracks would always be better. I've also seen a lot of examples where a company has tried the sidetracking of old, suspended shallow producers, and found on re-entering the well lots of "surprises" that ultimately made the well more expensive than a twinned well would have been. "If the well is in good condition" is the key phrase on which we'll both agree - the big question is whether they know it is before they re-enter it.

The primary takeaway here, demonstrated by this well, is that horizontal wells deliver huge benefits in West Rustafi because of their ability to intersect the natural fracture conduits through which oil is delivered to the well. The fracture network links a much greater sandface area to the well. If the wells intersect multiple compartments, even better, although that might lead to drilling challenges.

GLA

[edgein] 02/4/2019 11:11

New,

That article pretty much sums it up and the impact that a well brought on exceeding $60/bbl Brent and 325bopd will do to immediate cash flow.

Regards,
Ed.

[gregpeck7] 02/4/2019 11:09

Some very large slabs of stock changing hands and now showing...

[newtothisgame3] 02/4/2019 11:03

Block Energy’s Paul Haywood offers further insight into Monday’s ‘extraordinary’ West Rustavi drill results #BLOE @BlockEnergyplc Block Energy’s Paul Haywood offers further insight into Monday’s ‘extraordinary’ West Rustavi drill results #BLOE @BlockEnergyplc

[gregpeck7] 02/4/2019 11:02

Yes, grinding higher.. the news is slowly sinking in and 6p looks like the new bottom. Should move on from here as investors continue to build positions. A fantastic entry point.

[toogood4me] 02/4/2019 10:55

Mms had a go this morning but now back to reality and this needs to move past 7p

[johncasey] 02/4/2019 10:53

i love it when the buy price is well above the screen price..you know its only going one way soon