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[tpaulbeaumont] 18/1/2012 12:05

lol joe, the sad bit is ando knew it would happen, but didnt have time to say

[joe moon] 18/1/2012 12:05

audgbp risk off is trying to regain 4800 thats what im watching

[and then] 18/1/2012 12:03

Doesn't it make you just want to abandon ship and run away when you get it wrong?!

Hey, Loonie could be giving a clue. There's a possible 1 & 2 completed after what appears to be a lengthy corrective move. Break of 10113 negates, but 10172 confirms. If so, that means wave 3 and a rapidly strengthening dollar; risk off...
Will watch that one carefully me thinks. Scotsman2 would be pleased!

[joe moon] 18/1/2012 11:56

the cruise ship captain said he didnt see the rock as it wasnt marked on his charts

[and then] 18/1/2012 11:51

No trigger as yet, so could still mean the 4th wave was tiny and we completed the 5th yesterday, in which case we are in corrective mode.

To anyone reading, yes of course it sounds like if, buts and maybe's, but that's the point of my writing this. This was supposed to be a giant memo pad, for me to record my collective thoughts and refer to them without having it all down on various pieces of paper etc.

Once again it's clear for me to see that without a system trigger i have no trade. However, i went long last night being sure of the rise as i indicated. It was nearly 40 points to the good first thing this morning, before leading to a BE stop out.

Having realised that even if i was right and we are indeed starting the 5th wave, profits should have been banked in anticipation of either it still being 'b' of wave 4, subwave 'i' of Wave 5, or even 'B' of corrective move. Either way, its only the system that actually confirms to me which wave is actually underway.

Hmmmmmm........ patience

[and then] 18/1/2012 11:36

I'm trying to adapt the system to help me both recognise and confirm waves 1 & 2 have happened and consequently finished. Its looking good so far, but this patience thing is getting to me!

[and then] 18/1/2012 11:33

Something like that! :)

Seriously though in that first chart above, look how similar both Waves 1 & 2 are; they very often look like that, going long after its been recognised gives you the powerful 3rd wave. traded as a 123 the risk is small and the gain; huge. Unfortunately my system seldom gives an early buy signal for it. This is what i'm experimenting with right now. The problem, as ever, is patience!
Corrective moves, as i'm sure you will agree, are often short and sharp. Vicious enough to turn you into thinking there's far more to come, when often, there really isn't, at least, not yet anyway! Recognising your own fear factor and treating like a contrary indicator, (especially when the corrective move was short) can get you into the 3rd wave early and where the big move will be. Most people won't recognise wave 1 as they will mistake it for just a small pullback, then they will join in on wave 2 just as it gets going, only for wave 2 to finish with no LL (short)... they then get stopped out for a loss (or let it just run if you're scotsman2!), someway into wave 3 and then run away only to recover for the next corrective move to do it all again!

So indeed; 'the future is truly but a repetition of the past'

[tpaulbeaumont] 18/1/2012 11:12

'The future is but a repetition of the past'

[and then] 18/1/2012 10:51

So again just recording my thoughts; last nights idea was a slightly larger abc 4th wave, with 'b' rising through the night and then reversing for 'c' to create a LL this morning, before heading upwards for the 5th wave;



My current thoughts are; the 4th wave was smaller and completed last night in line with my thoughts on cable, (ie, not being able to head any lower due to conflict with wave 2), the rise and drop since were subwaves 'i' & 'ii', of the 5th creating a 123. If correct i should soon get a system trigger long into the 3rd subwave ('iii'). Every way it appears we have to print a HH. If i do indeed get a trigger it will still be the risky trade, however stops can be brought up quickly and judging by the size of subwaves; 'i' & 'ii' we could be looking at quite an extended 5th wave.

Ok all recorded! Lets see how it plays out, we already have the 123 trigger but for safety we need to wait for a system trigger.

I have a note above my desk saying;

'System trades only zone - be a machine, not a man'

[and then] 18/1/2012 09:12

Consider it that i'm talking out aloud to myself! Although non system trades, i'm constantly looking to optimize it. The market is actually more repetitive than most realise...

[tpaulbeaumont] 18/1/2012 08:54

questions questions :) fwiw i dont use the rule 'a tail doesnt count as overlap' cos there should be no doubt, if its that close its wrong imo, but then unlike most wave hopefuls i dont see failed/truncated moves either, ever.

[and then] 18/1/2012 08:43

Gonna be an interesting one. If its the 4th wave, it has to make a LL, but that again will be encrouching on wave 2. Is it going to be a very brief encounter and sharp reversal to leave a further tail, or are we in full corrective mode in which case there is no level which it has to adhere too?

Surely it cant be such a deep pullback for a subwave 1&2 of the 5th already?!

[and then] 17/1/2012 20:56

As i understand it, tails are allowed to cross. This would be a hell of a prediction as it means we have to see a HH before we go any lower than where we are around about now! The chart says it better!

[and then] 17/1/2012 19:51

Interestingly though, i would have placed cable at the same position, however, it can't go any lower without breaching what would be wave 2, so its also possible that the high earlier was the top of the 5th wave and we are now correcting. Would have expected a bit of ND first, but hey ho...

[and then] 17/1/2012 19:38

So if that is the case, we can at least expect a HH tomorrow. I'm of the opinion, we are playing out a fairly simple impulse abc 4th wave right now, being somewhere towards the end of subwave 'a', but lets see... No position, but looking for a system trade early on for the 5th. That's the risky one again, but if right we at least need a HH before starting the next corrective move;

[and then] 17/1/2012 08:44

Bullish set up with AudGbp as well, so my short term outlook for Aussie is to buy pullbacks. Have missed current entry points as the triggers were all in Asian trading time, so need to create some ND now.

[and then] 17/1/2012 08:28

and then - 17 Jan'12 - 08:25 - 127022 of 127022 edit

Audi has fresh intermediate target; 10555 and slightly longer term 10595 still stands. Stop at 10230

[bbluesky] 13/1/2012 22:04

Can you guys drop this spat please? I am searching for a word that is stronger than dull.

[david123456] 13/1/2012 17:54

Super analysis from space parallax once again.
He seems to be trying to stand on both sides of the coin - yet he is still contributing nothing of value.

[tpaulbeaumont] 13/1/2012 17:50

aye cable and DXY so far turned today from supp/res respectively, all down to S&Ps comments later for now i guess, trends in fx are far stronger than shares, so hopefully neitehr will stick for too long :)

[tpaulbeaumont] 13/1/2012 17:10

theres no denying it AT, your hindsight charst are the best in the biz lol ;)
no in all seriousness the labels for the move down meet all the rules, so its a fair effort, i dont pay attention to these 'little' moves usually so have no idea if its what id have, but if you took those trades then who cares what anyone thinks, right? :)
what would concern me is the move up over the last 48hrs, you simply cannot have 5 waves up on its own, so that cannot be right, and if you can overlook that, what else might get overlooked.
so anyway what about going forward, any fwd looking statements :)

[and then] 13/1/2012 16:55

Get on Tbp, i'm smiling here btw!

Anyway, here we go... 3 set-ups within a 5wave...
No 1 is risky because we don't know for sure we have broken out of a corrective move yet, although certain things will make that fairly obvious so can often be traded.
No 2 is the 'nailed on' trade when once again the last HL has been breached. It will usually be subwave iii of 3
No 3 the 5th wave usually fails...

[tpaulbeaumont] 13/1/2012 16:35

cant keep a job eh ;)


"the only things guaranteed in life are death and taxes" - Benjamin Franklin


'it never fails... ever... If it does your interpretation was wrong!'

well if its down to interpretation how can it possibly be 'guaranteed'?? every trade ive ever done was guaranteed, or my interpretation was wrong!
it goes without saying that anything to do with waves cant be guaranteed, because if you say its a '2' or a 'B' it may turn out not to be, if you pardon the pun :P