Bioseek Share Discussion Threads

[and then] 04/5/2011 08:22

Tweaks to system...


1. No more looking for "larger" trend to determine direction
2. Treating every day as a separate unit
3. No more numerous S/R lines on the chart
4. Working with just recent S/R levels using a single one horizontal line; following the market step-by-step
5. Continuously monitoring HHs LLs LHs LLs to gauge direction and watching for 123s to signal possible change of direction. You have to watch the video to get a clue.
6. Divergence on RSI becomes a less important factor. It's not necessary to use RSI at all.
7. Setup bar rules (CCI, MA distance) are the same
8. Stop is placed above/below setup bar, NOT recent swing H/L. Target is still 1:1. So both stops and targets are smaller now. Maximum stop size is no more 26 but 20 pips, thus maximum SUB size is 18 pips. If it's bigger - no trade. Minimum stop is 9 pips (applied if setup bar is too small).
9. Stop is moved to BE at 3(TP=9-11p), 4(TP=12-13p) or 5(TP=14-20p) pips within target.

In general: more smaller trades, no arguing about "trend is up, trend is down, this H/L of 2 days ago has to be taken out" etc..

[and then] 01/5/2011 08:02

Of course, i don't actually possess one of the items above, (well not much of it anyway!), but if i did, i would shortly be adding this beauty to my collage... :)

[and then] 30/4/2011 10:34

A note to myself...

Your looking for prev swings to be taken out, a retrace almost immediately (not after price has moved a long way to obtain it), then, if it doesn't look like a flag, don't trade it with full stake.
If it looks like a good set-up but minus a nicely drawn flag, wait to see if PA tests stop to within 2 points and enter trade then...
Forget 123's for the time being, that will come later.
Stop taking boredom trades.
Make sure you pan the page out to determine HH's/LL's etc. Yesterday, i made a wrong trade on the swissie because i didn't notice the prev Low wasn't taken out by a full pip. DON'T DO IT AGAIN!


Living the dream! (all that matters to me!)

[spaceparallax] 30/4/2011 10:13

We will see - meanwhile, I'm happy to accumulate at these daft prices.

[and then] 30/4/2011 09:49

Lol, noon, i will see to it that it doesn't happen again... i hope to achieve only the highest standards on here!

Funny, until this last week, most of your live calls have coincided with my own interpretation of the charts, only this system misses out a fair chunk of the movement and concentrates on trying to gaurantee the direction for a small number of pips (25/30), the set-ups have been very few and far between though this last week and i have tried many boredom trades which have had limited success :(


(sorry no pic this time!)

[noon] 30/4/2011 09:31

post 144 looks dull.

good work otherwise.

[curious] 29/4/2011 23:49

lomcovaks.

You raise a fair point about the channel that ended last year. But take a look at the price trend for 2011 on the right side of your graph. Note the new pattern forming of lower highs and lower lows. It is a downtrend, pure and simple. You could easily draw another downward sloping trading channel if you wished to.

And given that this 2011 channel is more current, it is much more useful in terms of gaining some insight into where prices might be heading.

On balance, you make a good historical point. But David123456 makes a good present day point. And given the company's poor financial results plus newly emerging evidence that its banks suddenly refused to provide them with funds that had earlier been authorised, it is easy to see why investors have drifted away from these shares since the start of the year.

With luck things will eventually change. But the graph suggests there is much more downside to come in the next few months. Time will tell of course.

[lomcovaks] 29/4/2011 20:13

Take a three year view and draw in channel lines and I'd suggest that the share has firmly moved out of the downward sloping channel and is now consolidating.

[and then] 29/4/2011 10:00

Ok, so here's a regular chance for points, particularly when the PA has been generally trending in one direction. Divergence with ND/PD will either be the start of a new trend, (if its powerful enough) or more often counter-trend. Otherwise a 123 on its own will lead to a typical 20 point reverse, (often followed by a counter 123 to get us back into trend).
The point is here, to look for spikes. Once we have the 1st one, we can watch the PA and see if it creates the dip followed by a LH to form a 123. the traditional trade is to wait until the price breaks point 2 by a clear 2 pips, but that is normally with divergence beforehand to signal trend change. Its possible to trade a normal 123 by risking the set-up when point 3 starts to reverse. If it fails and beats point 1 by a clear point, you haven't risked much. If it stays within 1 pip, you have a double top/bottom and therefore just as good a set-up.

here's a chart...

[petersinthemarket] 28/4/2011 19:35

david is absolutely correct.
downward sloping channel.
thats not bashing, thats a fact.
we might all hope it was different, but at present there's no hint of a rise.

[goofball25] 28/4/2011 17:32

sorry space for my misclassification(biotech right). I was trying to make a point!

[david123456] 28/4/2011 17:27

Seems to me that you have been trying to talk the price up for months. Meanwhile the price is going down and down. Did it ever occur to you that people might be laughing at you for feebly and unsuccessfully trying to ramp this share up, not at the people who have a different point of view than you.

[spaceparallax] 28/4/2011 17:23

You bashers really are showing some suspiciously consistent teamwork. Get a life and a proper job - you introduce new meaning to the word amateurish

[david123456] 28/4/2011 17:21

This is a very troubling price trend. Lower highs and lower lows. A downward sloping trading channel.

[spaceparallax] 28/4/2011 17:20

But they're not a pharma

[goofball25] 28/4/2011 16:54

agreed, too many traders here and not enough investors . Some pi's should really think hard before investing in small pharmas at all, the sector is generally a work in progress for the most part- both operationally and financially. ATD is a tiddler at the end of the day.

Nice 500k buy at close, lets hope they dont sell at 15p on monday!

[petersinthemarket] 28/4/2011 15:55

horribly disappointing

[spaceparallax] 28/4/2011 12:33

Woody, good luck to you - you're a pretty straight poster for whom I have respect.

[woodcutter] 28/4/2011 12:07

I held these myself from the bottom a 10p and made an investment of about £8K as a small punt on the back of the comments by Coombes and the supposed potential, i hadn't considered the financials at that point. I figured given some of my realised gains on other stocks it was a a worthwhile risk. I sold some earlier when the price was higher and finally disposed of all of my holding today. I'm sorry Space i know we've posted occasionally on other boards, MWE for example, but the financial results just don't stack up for me. I was half considering selling out when Rivaldo sold so today on the slight rise early on i cashed the remainder of my holding.

They may have a future but i think they're too blue sky at present and the revenue streams are inconsistant. Further it seems too much of their revenue is bioseek and the bulk of this with just a few customers, similar to MWE which incidentally i'm still holding, although a weakening dollar won't help that one either.

Good luck with your holding but please don't give too much of a hard time to those with differing opinions sometimes it's good to have your own thoughts challenged, for me it at least makes me re-evaluate my reasons for holding a stock.

Woody

[spaceparallax] 28/4/2011 10:41

Remarkable that you and another stranger to the thread should coincidentally turn up on the same day and within minutes of each other, singing from the same hymn sheet. Are you in the same office?

[curious] 28/4/2011 10:34

Spaceparrellax,
I wish you well. Sorry that my view differs from your own. I have nothing to gain by trying to talk the price down. Besides, hardly anyone posts on this thread aside from you so it is plain to see that this thread gets few visitors. For this reason, any negative comment from me would scarely be market-moving.
There is little doubt in my mind that ATD has some serious short-term problems, despite their optimistic statements. For example, Bioseek's 68% revenue improvement accounts for virtually all of the total company's revenue growth. In other words, little or no growth from the rest of the company.
Also recall that the CFO has been consistently positive for the last year or so yet the share price trend has been weak. Clearly, the market does not agree.
Also note that they admit Japan will have an affect on this year's business.
Also note that many companies in many industries have recently reported that US government contracts are being cancelled or delayed.
Like I said above, I wish you well. But I fear an investment here will be dead money for some time.
On a personal note, when you talk about "transparent" and a "meaningful impact" consider that some independent readers might view your own constant postings as a transparent attempt to ramp. Recall the old expression about the pot calling the kettle black