Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 24/2/2010 23:35

Marcus Mabry, international business editor of The New York Times, and John Authers, the investment editor for the Financial Times, join Daljit Dhaliwal to discuss the impact of U.S. economic polic

[traderabc] 24/2/2010 23:28

Peter Schiff
Feb 24, 2010

If the global economy were a three ring circus, then the center ring attraction would be the currency and debt battle quietly and slowly building between the United States and China. But for the past month the world's attention has been distracted by a much more entertaining sideshow in which European unity, and the ongoing viability of the euro, is being tested by the Greek debt crisis.

I believe the short-term problems in Europe are being overblown and the potential demise of the euro highly exaggerated. For those who can connect the dots however, the Greek drama throws some much needed light on the far more daunting problems unfolding within our own fiscal house.

[dutch alert] 24/2/2010 13:03

John Authers is good in finding indicators. Often indicators I was not aware of.
For the record: I also think the worst still has to come. But I try to see a breakdown of the US in relation to the position of others.
My conclusion untill now, the others will collapse even worst. Only the US has
the internal dynamics to initiate a recovery on their own. China has glued itself too much at the US and in Europe every part is too much busy with the problems of their own so no unity and they will not be able to profit from the fact they have a very large internal market.

[navyan] 24/2/2010 11:13

imo John Authers is a good analyst, but he is not the best forecaster.

[dutch alert] 24/2/2010 11:06

"As you know these things are unknowable and all we can do is make an educated guess, and then wait to see how things pan out."
Trader, I was always been teached, if you want to survive take a look at the whole picture and do not condemn parts of it. Keep in mind you might be caught up by the problem "you only see what you want to see".
So I am always searching for indicators who, against the general opinion, tries to tell us something. For instance look on the site of FT at the short view video of John Authers of last monday.

[traderabc] 23/2/2010 23:52

The deathbed of Keynesian economics
MATTHEW LYNN
February 23, 2010 - 2:47PM

Comments 33
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The UK has produced notable economists over the years, but John Maynard Keynes, the guru of government intervention, was one of truly global significance.

So it may be fitting that the UK will also become the deathbed of Keynesian economics.





Stacy Summary: The Keiser Report with Karl Denninger as special guest. This week we report on the scandals of George Soros and the IMF shaking out the gold market; US bank lending falling at the fastest rate in recorded history; and the trickle up unemployment pyramid. Keiser also speaks to The Market Ticker's Karl Denninger about CDOs, synthetic CDOs and hiding Greek debt

[traderabc] 23/2/2010 23:49

From Times Online
February 22, 2010
'Buy farmland and gold,' advises Dr Doom
Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent



The world's most powerful investors have been advised to buy farmland, stock up on gold and prepare for a "dirty war" by Marc Faber, the notoriously bearish market pundit, who predicted the 1987 stock market crash.

The bleak warning of social and financial meltdown, delivered today in Tokyo at a gathering of 700 pension and sovereign wealth fund managers.

[traderabc] 22/2/2010 15:04

Basically, It's Over
A parable about how one nation came to financial ruin.
By Charles Munger
Updated Sunday, Feb. 21, 2010, at 3:30 PM ET



In the early 1700s, Europeans discovered in the Pacific Ocean a large, unpopulated island with a temperate climate, rich in all nature's bounty except coal, oil, and natural gas. Reflecting its lack of civilization, they named this island "Basicland."

[navyan] 22/2/2010 01:25

This is interesting:

Dow Jones inflation adjusted chart:



If he is right then Dow is heading to below 4000.

and it is a good site too.

[navyan] 21/2/2010 23:47

Thanks Trader, The EPIC for Shanghai composite index on ADVFN is SHX:000001, but for some reason, ADVFN have stopped providing chart data for this EPIC, therefore you got the flat line.

But here is the chart covered by Colin Twiggs from Incredible Chart:



China
There is no trading on the Shanghai Composite Index this week. Last week's market appears bearish, with declining Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) and penetration of support at 3000. Recovery above 3050, however, would indicate that the correction is weakening. In the long term, breakout below 2700 would signal a primary down-trend.



But from the fundamental point of view, with the chinese central bank tightening the bank landing in order to cool down the speed of economic growth, and the rumour spreaded by Jim O'Neill that China might lift currency by 5% which could happen any time. its all bearish views atm, so I think a short term correction or sideway movement is on the cards.

China Options Show Biggest Risk of Stock Drop in Year

[traderabc] 21/2/2010 23:16

navyan, welcome

Shanghai composite index? I'm looking at the chart and guessing, it looks like it found some support at 2900 ish is flat lineing, in the immediate short term, perhaps back up to 3270 ish. Further out it ought to trade a range between 2750 and 3500, and be weak in September.


Where do you think it's going?

[traderabc] 21/2/2010 22:44

“The US is not a viable concern anymore” – Duncan
Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Feb 17 13:45.

"In Duncan’s words, the collapse of Bretton Woods represented the moment “capitalism became corrupted by government debt”. From that point on “US policymakers abandoned the core principles of economic orthodoxy: balanced government budgets and sound money”."

FT Alphaville spoke with Richard Duncan, partner at Blackhorse Asset Management and author of The Dollar Crisis on Tuesday, regarding his new book The Corruption of Capitalism. And while he is pretty pessimistic on the US, Duncan says there is a way out if policymakers make bold decisions.

But first some background. In the Dollar Crisis, published in 2003, Duncan explained how the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 was always going to lead to a global financial crisis due to the trade imbalances it encouraged and created. Based on the premise, Duncan successfully predicted the subprime problem, the downfall of government sponsored agencies as well as the banking crisis (and related bailouts) we’ve all — seven years on — come to know and love.

[navyan] 21/2/2010 22:03

trader, great thread, learned a lot from here, thanks.

what do u think of where the chinese stock market i.e Shanghai composite index will go for this year then?

with the speculation of chinese government might lift YUAN by 5% in one go, and the real estate bubble in Shanghai and HK and the excess of products generated from the 4 trillion stimulus in 2008?

thanks in advance.

[traderabc] 21/2/2010 21:54

The real deal ...





Ron Paul CPAC 2010 (1/3): Stop the Wars, End the Fed, Regain our Liberties!



Ron Paul CPAC 2010 (2/3): Stop the Wars, End the Fed, Regain our Liberties!



Ron Paul CPAC 2010 (3/3): Stop the Wars, End the Fed, Regain our Liberties!

[apdi71] 21/2/2010 11:29

Glenn Beck's speech at CPAC 2010

(A Free market conservative warns of big 'progressive' government from Republicans and Democrats. The parallels with the UKs non representative government are compelling IMO.)

[traderabc] 20/2/2010 19:28

Mark Faber with Jim Pulplava mp3 (min 17)

[chestnuts] 20/2/2010 16:15

Hi Trader

One count on gold at the moment is the one i posted the other day shows we are on an impulse wave abd should top out on the 18th of May which is a FIB date, as for Pretcher wave count, he as been bearish on gold since it reached $400 he says gold is in an expanding flat, i don't see this, lets see who is correct only time will tell.

[049balt] 20/2/2010 14:13

Sweet music to my ears!!

[traderabc] 20/2/2010 14:02

'Is it mainstream to think the US goes under and others will take the lead?
And contrarian to think the US will arise stronger from a mess that still
would be a lot worse as it is today?'


Dutch, some years ago it was outrageously 'contrarian' to believe anything other then America was no1 and could do no wrong. Today that is obviously not the case, however I wouldn't say that the situation is a complete reverse.

Many, many people have woken up to the fact that big changes are happening at present, but generally speaking the 'consensus' still is that the US will recover and will continue to be the world's largest economy.

I'd agree with you that expecting a great depression in China is a contrarian stance, it certainly isn't the consensus position.

As you know these things are unknowable and all we can do is make an educated guess, and then wait to see how things pan out.

My guess is that unless people like Ron Paul, Peter Schiff and some others get their ideas implemented then America has very little hope of any real recovery. If they keep making the same mistakes (as they are atm) then I feel it is inevitable that they will trigger their own economic collapse and perhaps inflict it upon most of the world too, however more prudent nations will be far more likely to recover whilst America doesn't.

I could be wrong, perhaps if they back their $ with bombs and military intervention, if they invade and steal the wealth from entire nations, then maybe they could stay on top for a while longer.

One thing I'm sure of is if they continue on the same path of wreakless fiscal irresponsibility the world will be a sorrier and poorer place for it.

[traderabc] 20/2/2010 13:32

'I have been doing cycles on gold for a long time now and the next top will be around the 18th of May between 1400 and 1650 ish, we are on a 5th wave, i think or it could be an extension of a 3rd wave won't know till May.'



chestnuts, I presume you are talking about Elliot wave here. I heard R. Pretcher uses a similar system, I have also heard that he claims gold could go as low as $200 on the next downwave. Could you comment about this?

[traderabc] 20/2/2010 13:14

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS
by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
Schmidt Management Company
February 17, 2010

We admit to having been gullible at points in our life. Yes, we have believed stories that on reflection made very little real sense. That is the human part of us, a tendency to believe that others would not intentional mislead us. Perhaps we have leaned from our mistakes. We are not ready to listen to those telling us that the cold weather all around the Northern Hemisphere is due to global warming. We are beginning to suspect that Climate Evangelists and Keynesian economists have a common belief. They both think pigs can fly.

[traderabc] 20/2/2010 13:11

On the Edge with Max Keiser