Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 03/2/2010 18:26

Tedbits 2010 Outlook
When Hope Turns to Fear, Part II
by Ty Andros, Editor, Tedbits Newsletter| February 2, 2010


Currencies, Bombs… er, Bonds and Banks are ALL Rotten to their Core.

This is the epicenter of the unfolding financial crisis and inflationary/deflationary depression. The developed world is BANKRUPT and the policies of INSOLVENCY are entrenched in its leaders and citizens in such a way as to make the final destination of financial system destruction UNAVOIDABLE. The “something for nothings” in the developed world are firmly in control of the electoral process and their constituencies continue to grow as the global financial crisis crushes their incomes and future prospects. Taxes are headed far higher, thus transferring capital from the private economies (where jobs and incomes are created and where production exceeds consumption) to the public sector which has no idea what cost-benefit analysis is and consumes much more than it produces.

Author’s note on another subject: There is no sugar coating this; virtually every chart I look at (outside down bars on weekly and monthly charts) is set to CRASH -- stocks, many bonds, commodities, crude oil, grains and many industrial metals. They look like the 1st wave down in an impulse wave into the next down wave of the unfolding depression, they better turn on the money printing (re-flation trade) or it will be curtains sooner rather than later.

[traderabc] 03/2/2010 18:19

America - Innovate or Die!

by Gordon T Long | February 3, 2010





US innovation is plummeting faster than our Financial
Markets did during the 2008 financial crisis!

The future of America is presently in peril, not just because of the “bankstersR17;’ shadowy ways, but because of a sputtering Innovation Engine that has had the fuel “choked off’. It has now gone “critical̶1; and can no longer be left to only the carping of the academic community.

The chart to the right from the Financial Times: “China scientists lead world in research growth” is frightening in its implications. It requires an immediate and serious congressional public policy response. Unfortunately most of those on the front lines are skeptical about Washington’s ability to either recognize the gravity of the situation or legislate any meaningful and appropriate response.

[traderabc] 03/2/2010 17:24

Higher Highs coming in Gold!

Peter Degraaf
Posted Feb 3, 2010

The recent peak in gold on December 2nd was interrupted by a pullback that most likely ended with a double bottom on Jan 28th. To help us determine if this pull-back is ready to give way to the next big rally we take a look at all of the pullbacks of 10% or more since the Gold Bull started its run in 2001. There have been 9 such pull-backs, including the one just ending.

But first we draw your attention to a very bullish chart. It is the chart that highlights the inverted head and shoulders formation that came to life when gold broke out above the important $1,000.00 level. This breakout portends a target of $1,350.00 minimum, and some would conclude at target at $1,500.00

[traderabc] 03/2/2010 10:28

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS
by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
Schmidt Management Company
February 2, 2010

The North American Agri-Food harvest is either complete, or almost complete. We say that as much of the corn crop remains still in the field due to being wet, frozen, or covered with snow and ice. For all the best efforts of those involved in the Global Warming Scam, the winter of 2009-10 has been far more powerful than their now clearly questionable documentation would have suggested. Despite the weather, the North American 2009 harvest appears to have been good, with both corn and soybeans seeming bountiful.

Analysts can talk of nothing but the size of the North American harvest. As they do, it seems to get larger on a daily basis. As they think about that bounty, they ponder what seems is going to be a good harvest in South America. One might think that the world is in an era of Agri-Food plenty that will last indefinitely. However, that thinking would be wrong. A good harvest in both North and South America had nothing to do with intentions and effort. It was simply chance, and not likely to be repeated. Now, the harvest is being consumed. Grains are grown to be eaten, not preserved as a curiosity.

[traderabc] 02/2/2010 20:45

Some interesting stuff in here, just skip the non English parts.


Marc Faber and Jim rogers praag meeting 2010 part 1/5.wmv




2


3


4


5


This is the whole lot together

[traderabc] 02/2/2010 18:24

Keiser Report №13: Markets! Finance! Scandal!

[traderabc] 02/2/2010 18:17

Some interesting stuff about agricultural land, Rogers gets a mention too, but what I like most about this is the way he ties it in with Gold.

Gold: Turnip Trucks & PowerShakes

Stewart Thomson
email: [e-mail]
Feb 2, 2010

1. By the time some of you read this today, I’ll be in a plane to New York. Should be interesting, assuming the plane lands. I don’t like to assume much of anything is a sure thing, because it is not. Some writers are staring intently into the charts, trying hard to divine the next move in the gold juniors. I’m meeting with one of the world’s largest gold juniors investors, kingkong. The GDXJ juniors ETF staged a spectacular comeback yesterday. The index soared almost 10%. Is that move for real? The charts are very helpful in figuring out what’s going on. The fact is however, that liquidity flows provide the other 99% of the information needed.

2. The banksters have the best information on what money is flowing where and when. It is what it is. Big money is flowing into the juniors. Last week, little money jumped out at the 22nd and 23rd floors of the GDXJ building. While it is never good news to lose a fellow gold soldier, it can’t be denied that big money moving into an entity is a process that is often accompanied by small money moving out. Is big money smarter? No. I don’t subscribe to the theory that big money is smarter than small money. Big money is just better at making money than small money is. Think simple. Think like Granny. Granny is not smart. She is wise. Price goes down, Granny buys. The GDXJ price went down. So Granny and big money bought. Yesterday price soared. So Granny and big money sold a bit.

[traderabc] 02/2/2010 15:16

This is good.

Max Keiser on Egill Helgason, skip the intro.

[contrarian2investor] 01/2/2010 17:16

Hi all,

Here is an article that might be of interest:

Palladium: The Bullish Case Now Looks Even Stronger
by: Mark Anthony February 01, 2010



c2i

[traderabc] 01/2/2010 16:31

'Interest rates need to rise a lot to make paper currencies look more attractive'


Agreed Bluebelle, yet if they do they destroy 'the economy', a rock and a hard place come to mind.


'in which the £ will fall against the $ and that the $ price of most commodities will continue to rise.'

I'm inclined to agree with that too, it's already happening and will probably get worse. I understand agricultural land has been in a steady bull market for over a decade, and has been unaffected by the recent banking crisis, which I think is a strong indicator that food prices will have to go up much more.

[andyh21] 01/2/2010 16:08

Completely agree Phill....funnilly enough i came across these this morning after seeing at job advert for manchester airport! I like the company that much i've just applied for a job, lol! what price did you get them at if you don't mind me asking 14% spread is a little off putting! not looked at any broker forecast but my own thinking is cica £415k net, EPS of cica 3.26p. P.e of 10.6 minus the cash pile! basically if you bought the company today for market value it would cost you around (before this rise) 400k due to cost of inventory and cash pile! good investment imo!

[philw2009] 01/2/2010 15:53

I just bought in. Low liquidity is a bit of a concern but I'm in it for the long term. Profits rising, debt free, exciting business, good management. What's not to like? Would like to see some expansion internationally though but it's good they're not rushing things in the current climate.

[bluebelle] 01/2/2010 14:50

traderabc - 31 Jan'10 - 22:46 - 1157 of 1158

I think your right about Soros : would be interesting to know what he's DOING rather than SAYING.

Of course in a low interest rate environment, money is going into other asset classes - it's been happening for some time - but that also reflects the fact that there is not a major tradeable currency which doesn't have question marks over it. Interest rates need to rise a lot to make paper currencies look more attractive than other asset classes, including gold and other commodities. I still see a scenario - apart from the inevitable short term fluctuations - in which the £ will fall against the $ and that the $ price of most commodities will continue to rise.

[traderabc] 01/2/2010 14:41

The Precarious State of Our Union

Peter Schiff
Jan 31, 2010

In this week's much anticipated State of the Union address, President Obama again demonstrated his poor understanding of the fundamental problems that confront our nation. By following the advice of the same people who helped guide our economy to the precipice of total collapse, Obama now threatens to push it over the edge.

Notwithstanding his well crafted lip service regarding future spending restraint, the essence of his current program is for more government spending and larger deficits. For all his talk about job creation, his policies will further burden those who might otherwise create those jobs with higher taxes and more regulation. While he did call for tax cuts for the middle class and offered what amounts to bailouts for those struggling to repay student loans, such cuts do nothing to promote growth in the near term and will add to the deficits in the long term.

The President spoke optimistically about the future, but in reality there is little evidence to support such an upbeat outlook. He began his speech by assuring us that the worst of the storm had passed. General Custer may have said something similar when the first wave of Indian attacks ebbed at Little Big Horn.

While Obama did have some harsh words for Wall Street (not exactly a courageous political stance), he leveled no criticism at the Federal Reserve or other government agencies that had financed and guaranteed all the ridiculous real estate speculation that precipitated the crash. And while he at least conceded that the prosperity of the last decade was based on illusions, he continued to endorse the very policies that produced the mirage in the first place.

To lead us back to brighter days, he articulated a vision of a centrally planned recovery, where clean energy and a Soviet style five-year plan to double our exports would make our economy preeminent once more. He fails to understand that the only reason our economy rose to the top in the first place is that the government left it alone.

In the words of the Spanish philosopher George Santayana, "Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Since our President cannot even learn from the mistakes of his immediate predecessor, to say nothing of those he made himself while in the Senate or during his first year as president, we are surely doomed to repeat them, perhaps more quickly than Santayana could have imagined.

Rather than tightening the reins on the reckless monetary policy that undermined our savings, diminished our industrial output, inflated asset bubbles, and led to reckless speculation on Wall Street and excess consumption on Main Street, we are loosening them further.

Rather than repealing regulations that distort markets and create moral hazards, we are adding new ones that do more of the same.

Rather than cutting government spending to reduce the burden it places on our economy, we are increasing both the amount of the spending and the size of the burden.

Rather than making government smaller so that the private sector can grow, we are making government bigger and forcing the private sector to shrink.

Rather than paying off our debts we are taking on even more.

Rather than encouraging people to save we are enticing them to spend.

Rather than creating jobs, we are merely creating unemployment benefits.

As a result, instead of seeding the soil for a real recovery we are setting the stage for a prolonged depression.

[traderabc] 31/1/2010 22:46

chesnuts,
He could of quantified better by saying 'gold is IN the ultimate bubble', as he didn't, you do have a perfectly valid view.

Unlike Rogers, Soros is a true believer in 'big government', therefore it's his duty to talk down gold, perhaps he was being ambivalent because he knows perfectly well gold is going to stabilize then continue to go up, that scenario may well conflict with his interests presently, hence the ambiguous language, which makes him look 'right' either way, he's a crafty one, that Soros ;-)

Whatever, he should know that the graph is for the record too, it took gold a couple of years and multiple probes at the $1K level before it broke through, then broke out convincingly enough, now consolidation, which I believe is routine behavior in this market.

However the break out above $1K is significant, for me that is the best gold 'news' (as far as charting is concerned) for years.
Over the last decade pull backs, (like this one), have historically proven to have been buy opportunities every time, I wondering, why should it be any different this time round?

[chestnuts] 30/1/2010 18:37

Hi Trader

"Gold is now "the ultimate bubble", billionaire investor George Soros has declared, sparking fears that prices for the precious metal may soon suffer a tumble"

I think alot of people have misread this article , my understanding is that "Gold is the Ultimate bubble" is that its going to be the biggest bubble of all bubbles and we have not started yet.

[traderabc] 30/1/2010 16:38

Some might say, what's all this got to do with me? I live in the UK, who cares what happens to the yanks, it has nothing to do with £ sterling and our own economy.
Sadly it does, our economy is closely tied up with theirs, if anything we get hit harder then they do, when they do. Our central bank is indulging in the same insanity as theirs, ie quantitative easing. Our government does whatever stupidity theirs does, ie war, war on terror, banker bailout, deficit spending,bigger gov, erosion of rights etc etc.


Creating A Trillion From Thin Air

Daniel R. Amerman, CFA, DanielAmerman.com
Overview

The Federal Reserve reported a $45 billion profit for 2009, making it the most profitable financial institution in the nation. Many news outlets put a positive spin on this report, saying it was great news for the economy and the financial sector. Are they right about that? Or could the full story of what happened represent a direct threat to the value of your savings and your retirement investments? Let’s take a short look at the story behind the headlines, and the personal implications for you and your family.

As we all know, the large banks were in deep trouble in 2008 and 2009. The subprime mortgages were the trigger, but the problems rapidly spread into other investments. Markets totaling trillions of dollars were in danger of collapsing because of a lack of buyers.

Enter the Federal Reserve. This next part of the story is where 99% of the country usually stops reading. Because the concepts and vocabulary get a little obscure. That’s what Wall Street is counting on – you not finishing this short article. Because that’s the perfect way to steal by the trillions – do it in plain sight, but in such a manner that the people are blind to what you’re doing. Keep reading, and let’s shine a light on what has been done, and why you should be personally concerned.

[traderabc] 30/1/2010 16:00

JPMorgan vs. Goldman Sachs: Why the Market Was Down for 7 Days in a Row


We are witnessing an epic battle between two banking giants, JPMorgan Chase (Paul Volcker) and Goldman Sachs (Geithner/Summers/Rubin). Left strewn on the battleground could be your pension fund and 401K.

The late Libertarian economist, Murray Rothbard, wrote that U.S. politics since 1900, when William Jennings Bryan narrowly lost the presidency, has been a struggle between two competing banking giants, the Morgans and the Rockefellers. The parties would sometimes change hands, but the puppeteers pulling the strings were always one of these two big-money players. No popular third party candidate had a real chance at winning, because the bankers had the exclusive power to create the national money supply and therefore held the winning cards.

[traderabc] 30/1/2010 13:04

On the Edge with Max Keiser – 29 January 2010

[i_hopi] 29/1/2010 15:46

Has Dim Rogers dumped all his gold yet?