Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 26/12/2009 12:33

On the Edge with Max Keiser - 25 December 2009 (1/3)

[traderabc] 26/12/2009 12:04

JINGLE MAIL, JINGLE MAIL
by Richard Benson
Benson's Economic & Market Trends
December 23, 2009

Jingle All The Way;
Oh what fun it is today,
To just walk away!

Jingle Mail (also known as strategic mortgage default) is the happy-sounding phrase used by banks and mortgage servicers to describe homeowners who simply walk away from their homes and mail the keys back to the bank. The banker can hear the keys jingling in the envelope from a distance so even before it’s opened, he knows that for this loan the jig is up. Jingle Mail appears to be the new fad of giving over this holiday season, and next year many more of our neighbors will be seen mailing back keys. For a high percentage of the ten million homeowners with material negative equity, thought will turn to action even if they can afford to make the mortgage payment, because Jingle Mail can put a lot of money in their pockets!

Why are homeowners willing to walk away even if they afford it? First, the government’s program for mortgage loan modification is an abject failure. To date, only a small percentage of home loans have been put on trial modification and of those that actually go to final modification, a very high percentage re-default and foreclose anyway. This program is not working because neither the Obama Administration or the banks or Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, are willing to face cutting the principal owed on the mortgage balance to a realistic number. Second, Jingle Mail can be very profitable!

Here’s why Jingle Mail makes so much more sense than continuing to pay an inflated mortgage.

[traderabc] 26/12/2009 12:01

NIA Declares Silver Best Investment for Next Decade
By: PR Newswire | 11 Dec 2009 | 09:00 AM ET
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FORT LEE, N.J., Dec 11, 2009 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- The National Inflation Association today released the following statement to its members: "We are less than three weeks away from entering the next decade. The most important thing you need to know entering 2010 is that silver is the single best investment for the next decade. In our opinion, investing into silver is the only sure way to tremendously increase your purchasing power over the next ten years.

Throughout world history, only ten times more silver has been mined than gold.

If you go back about 1,000 years ago between the years 1000 and 1250, gold was worth ten times more than silver worldwide. From year 1250 to 1792, the gold to silver ratio slowly increased from 10 to 15 and the Coinage Act of 1792 officially defined a gold to silver ratio of 15. The ratio remained at 15 until forty-two years later when the ratio was increased in 1834 to 16, where it remained until silver was demonetized in 1873.

The gold to silver ratio remained between 10 and 16 for 873 years! It is only over the past 100 years that the gold to silver ratio has averaged 50.

[traderabc] 26/12/2009 11:05

To all Jim Rogers fans



& a

[traderabc] 26/12/2009 10:51

Market moves and the lunatic fringe


Leo Lewis
The Australian
Thursday, Dec 24th, 2009

IMPLODING equities, exploding credit default swaps, soaring gold and slumping oil — if, at any time over the past 18 months, it seemed that markets were in the grip of lunacy, it may be because investors are, technically, lunatics.

The market mayhem since the global financial meltdown began in 2008 has provided fertile soil for proponents of a branch of investment theory which holds that market cycles move in phase with the Moon.

Now, backed with decades of data and behaviour that can no longer be explained by purely rational analysis, the lunar theory has slipped into the mainstream.

In a piece of research that involved 14 of its senior analysts from across five leading financial centres scrutinising data from 32 leading indices over several decades, Macquarie Securities has arrived at a startling discovery: the two days on either side of the new lunar month represent most of the positive returns on equity markets for the next four weeks.

[traderabc] 26/12/2009 10:49

What's it all about?

Richard Russell snippet
Dow Theory Letters
posted Dec 24, 2009

Unless you're willing to "blow it up," you'll never be happy and get to what I call the "promised land." ...

December 23, 2009 -- The holidays are upon us and next week is the beginning of a new year. So I thought I'd share some of my recent thinking on "life" -- after all I've been around for a while.

Does anyone ever stop what he or she is doing and say, "Why am I working? What do I want? Am I doing what I want? Am I married to the person I want to spend my life with? Am I living the way I want? Am I living where I want? Did I really want kids? Do I love my work?"

[notanewmember2] 25/12/2009 22:45

If anyone has Quest on Freeview tuned in, they are showing every episode of How Stuff Works, back to back Boxing day.

It's brilliant for general information on all the major commodities.

[rovi57] 23/12/2009 16:29

good read, thanks rovi

[traderabc] 23/12/2009 11:31

Christmas Comes Early For
Precious Metals Buyers
by Warren Bevan, Precious Metal Stock Review | December 21, 2009


Interestingly enough the long inverse correlation between the large US markets and the US dollar has seemingly broken down. Since March 2009 the dollar has been in a protracted downtrend while the markets have risen steadily.

The US dollar broke out of the downtrend this past week while the US markets did no such thing technically. Their moves were similar on a percentage basis, but night and day technically. We shall see if this correlation has indeed broken down once the new year is rung in. Right now, and for the rest of the year, trading will be thin. That can exaggerate moves either way, without really having any significance.

Many investors are simply buying back their shorts in the US dollar so they can relax over the holidays, and rightfully so. Why not enjoy some of the fruits of their labor?

[049balt] 22/12/2009 22:54

trader, thanks. Almost every day I have heated discussions with my farming neighbours about what might lie ahead, not a single farmer is optimistic about his future infact most just despair at the thought of producing food at below the cost of production, farmers everywhere are just loosing money and the thought of actually selling beef, milk and grain and making money is a concept that they are unable to grasp. Like you I believe that nothing stays the same forever! I read your thread every day, keep up the good work.

[notanewmember2] 22/12/2009 22:29

I think if I achieved "billionaire" status, I could just invest £50m in a state of the art printing press and just print my own notes.

[traderabc] 22/12/2009 20:49

Obalt, I think you will see large increases in the next few years. Farming will be a great business, as long as the big multinationals don't corrupt the politicians enough to pass even more laws making it even harder for the smaller operators. The big players are almost guaranteed to make big money.

Consider this, not many years ago you could talk to virtually anybody involved with the mining business and all they had to say about their future was negative. 30 years in a depressed market had that effect on those 'insiders'. Many sold off their stocks and options right at the beginning of the bull market.

I believe things are not so different with the farming business, it's been tough for over a generation, many farmers must have little hope for their industry, it is precisely at times like this, when pessimism is at it's highest things turn around.

The fundamentals are very good for essential commodities, in the end fundamentals always come through and become reality as far as prices are concerned, it can take years and usually does, but in the end it always happens. Remember what happened to the banks and financial industry, it was no big surprise to anyone who understood the fundamentals and economic cycles (Rogers, Schiff, Ron Paul etc)

[traderabc] 22/12/2009 20:16

It is said the Rothschild family are already trillionaires in any currency, they are believed to 'own' about half the wealth of the entire planet

[049balt] 22/12/2009 19:49

trader, when will we see the looming food shortages being reflected in actual farmgate prices?

[traderabc] 22/12/2009 19:24

Gold Santa, What's in His Toybag?

Stewart Thomson
email: [e-mail]
Dec 22, 2009

1. WHY is gold falling? One of you asked this yesterday. Responding to price is important, but why is gold falling? In the end, gold is falling because there are more sellers than buyers. Breaking that down, the US dollar is rising, and gold moves - usually - opposite to the US dollar. Technically, as gold rose to $1200, many of the indicators were at points that would attract more technical sellers than buyers, and as various chart support and trend points failed, more sellers came in.

[traderabc] 22/12/2009 19:22

The Interest Rate Myth - A Bullish Argument
3 Comments Published December 23rd, 2009 in Fixed Income.

Rising interest rates are bad for the stock market and since we are now at rock bottom, rates can only go up and take the equity market down with it. This well known shibboleth is put to rest in this short video:

[traderabc] 22/12/2009 19:18

NIA's Top 10 Predictions for 2010

PR Newswire

FORT LEE, N.J., Dec. 21

FORT LEE, N.J., Dec. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- The National Inflation Association - is pleased to announce its top 10 predictions for 2010.




I hope they are right about no 7

(7) Peter Schiff and Rand Paul will both win Republican primaries and be elected to U.S. Senate.

[traderabc] 21/12/2009 22:54

Renegade Economist Christmas Special with Max Keiser

[traderabc] 21/12/2009 11:49

Profit Opportunities &
Wealth Destroyers in 2010
by DeepCaster LLC, deepcaster.com | December 18, 2009


“A Great Collapse. The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation, to debasing the U.S. dollar. The results of those efforts are being seen in tentative selling pressures against the U.S. currency and in the rallying price of gold.” (emphasis added)

Shadow Government Statistics – Hyperinflation Special Report (2010 Update)
December 2, 2009

Reality Check: 2010 is shaping up to be more like 2008, and much less like 2009, so far as the economy and markets are concerned. To identify Profit Opportunities it is essential first to identify the Main Prospective Wealth Destroyers for 2010.

[traderabc] 21/12/2009 11:35

I've heard Saxo's a bit dodge, that they've banked for boiler-rooms in the past, allegedly...

US pensions go bust, gold crashes, China flops, Bunds soar, predicts Saxo
America's Social Security Trust Fund will go bankrupt; both gold and the Japanese yen will crash; and China's currency will devalue as bad loans catch up with the over-stretched banking system – all in the course of 2010.


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published: 7:35PM GMT 17 Dec 2009



Saxo Bank is predicting a stormy year ahead for the financial world Photo: AP

The annual "Outrageous Predictions" of Denmark's Saxo Bank are not for the faint-hearted, though there is good news for some.

David Karsboel, chief economist, thinks the US trade balance may go into surplus for the first time since the mid-1970s, benefiting from the delayed effects of the weak dollar.