Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 16/12/2009 12:43

Roubini Blasts “The Barbarous Relic,” Recommends Spam Over Gold


Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge
Wednesday, Dec 16th, 2009

In a headline piece on roubini.com, Nouriel Roubini writes an extended article slamming both gold bugs, and the so-called gold bubble, which he believes is far too volatile, and which, contrary to ever increasing claims to the opposite, will likely not get to the mythical price of $2000/ounce, and instead will head lower. The argument presented, as is widely the case, boils down to the trifecta of i)gold having no industrial utility, ii) no intrinsic value (no associated cash flow streams) and iii) costing an arm and a leg to store. While Roubini’s thesis is attractive on the surface (if somewhat Keynesian and thus often reiterated by mainstream Economists), we present some counter arguments to Roubini’s thesis.

[traderabc] 16/12/2009 11:18

China president opens Turkmenistan gas pipeline

The pipeline marks a major victory for Beijing in its drive for energy supplies


China's President Hu Jintao has opened a new pipeline that will deliver gas from Turkmenistan to his country.

He was joined by the leaders of the Central Asian countries through whose territory the pipeline passes.

Analysts say the pipeline marks a major advance of Beijing's influence in the region and a step forward in its drive for increased energy security.

[traderabc] 16/12/2009 10:54

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS
by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
Schmidt Management Company
December 15, 2009

The Global Warming Scam may finally be on its way to well-deserved oblivion. Take your pick of discrediting events, the snow storms that hit the Midwestern U.S., snow at the start of the Australian Summer, -40 degree temps in Western Canada, or Climategate. The Global Warming Scam appears now to have been nothing more than a giant research dollar Ponzi-like scheme. Researchers would take research dollars, cook some numbers, discard other data, and exchange dubious research for more funding from other sources. Rather than useful research that might help us understand what effect tomorrow’s climate might have on global Agri-Food production, we got subterfuge and intimidation of nonbelievers.

Across the Midwestern U.S. snow storms have wreaked havoc with the corn harvest. Iowa was hit with the worst snow storm since the 1950s. Estimates of that corn remaining in the U.S. fields, now awaiting Spring to be harvested, varies from 6% to 25% to 40%, depending on location. Estimated losses of that corn remaining in the field till Spring range from 25% to 40%. Thus far this situation has not caused stress on Agri-Food prices as the new U.S. corn crop was indeed large, and had just arrived.

[traderabc] 15/12/2009 16:56

Shadowstats’ John Williams: Prepare For The Hyperinflationary Great Depression


Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge
Tuesday, Dec 15th, 2009

John Williams, who runs the popular counter government data manipulation site Shadowstats, has thrown down the gauntlet to deflationists, and in an extensive report concludes that the probability of a hyperinflationary episode in America over the next year has reached critical levels. While the debate between deflationists and (hyper)inflationists has been a long and painful one, numerous events set off in motion by the Bernanke Fed (as a direct legacy of the Greenspan multi-decade period of cheap and boundless credit) may have well cast America as the unwilling protagonist in the sequel of the failed monetary policy economic experiment better known as Zimbabwe.

Williams does not mince his words:

The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation, to debasing the U.S. dollar. The results of those efforts are being seen in tentative selling pressures against the U.S. currency and in the rallying price of gold.

[traderabc] 15/12/2009 12:40

How to Predict the Price of Gold

Jeff Clark
Casey's Gold & Resource Report
Dec 15, 2009

Long-term readers know that gold moves inversely to the dollar, meaning if the dollar drops, gold tends to rise (and vice versa). This happens with about 80% regularity. But what many gold writers haven't acknowledged is the leveraged movement our favorite metal has demonstrated this year to the world's reserve currency.

The U.S. dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's value, has dropped 7.8% so far this year (as of December 3). Meanwhile, gold is up 38.7% year-to-date. In other words, for every 1% drop in the dollar index, gold has risen 4.9%. If that approximate percentage holds over time, one can begin to estimate what the gold price might be if you know what the dollar might do.

While the dollar is likely to bounce at some point, making gold correct, the long-term fate of the dollar has already dried in cement. If the dollar were simply to return to its March 2008 low of 71.30 next year - a 4.6% drop from current levels - this would imply a rise in gold of 22.5% and a price of about $1,478 an ounce.

The long-term scenario is more dramatic. If you believe the dollar will lose half its value from current levels, this would imply a gold price around $4,164. If you believe it will lose 75% of its value, gold would reach about $5,642. Doug Casey has called for a $5,000 gold price; if he's right, guess what that implies for the dollar?

And think about this: these calculations ignore what else might "show up," such as when price inflation shows up in the economy, the greater public shows up to buy gold, or the Chinese don't show up at an auction. Could $5,000 gold be too low?

Unless you think the dollar's problems are solved, its eventual demise is gold's eventual glory. Prepare, and invest, accordingly.

And keep up on the gold and precious metals markets in Casey's Gold and Resource Report. Each month I'll bring you the best research and investment recommendations in the business. And until December 18, you can get a subscription for 50% off the regular price and receive a free gift worth $79. Click here to learn more.

[traderabc] 15/12/2009 12:39

Mission Not Accomplished

Peter Schiff
Dec 15, 2009

Although Barack Obama has refrained, at least for now, from delivering triumphant speeches in a naval flight suit, there is nevertheless a strong tone of accomplishment emanating from the President and his deputies. Over the weekend, top White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers even pronounced that the recession is now over. Without hedging his bets, Summers declared that thanks to the Obama Administration's wise stewardship, economic stimuli, and emergency bailouts, another Great Depression, set up by the prior Administration, had been narrowly averted. Summers saw no impediments to the return of sustainable growth. He may as well have delivered these remarks from the deck of an aircraft carrier.

I hate to shoot down these high-flying expectations, but the economy is not improving. All that has changed is that we are now more indebted to foreign creditors, with even less to show for it. Washington's current policies have once again deferred the fundamental, market-driven reforms needed to redirect us onto a sustainable path. Instead, through aggressive monetary and fiscal stimuli, we are trying to re-inflate a balloon that is full of holes. This was the Bush Administration's exact response to the 2002 recession. It's shocking how few observers note the repeating pattern, especially the fact that each crash is worse than the last.

[traderabc] 14/12/2009 18:39

Indeed Eric

;-)

[eriktherock] 14/12/2009 18:30

traderab, I admire your tenacity but only a dead fish goes with the flow.

[traderabc] 14/12/2009 18:11

Inflation.us The Dollar Bubble

[traderabc] 14/12/2009 17:22

On the Edge with Max Keiser (11 Dec 2009)

part 1


part 2


part 3

[traderabc] 14/12/2009 16:42

Taxing the rich is causing exodus


Duncan Gardham
London Telegraph
Sunday, Dec 13th, 2009

Britain’s financiers and entrepreneurs are leaving the country at the rate of 10 a week to avoid rising taxes, it has emerged.

The number of directors of British companies who have registered in the Channel Island tax havens of Jersey and Guernsey, along with the Isle of Man has risen by almost 500 in the past 12 months.

All three are Crown Dependencies and as such can set their own tax rates.

The British Virgin Islands, a popular tax haven in the Caribbean, has seen an 18 per cent rise on a year ago.

[traderabc] 14/12/2009 16:30

Here's what I've been thinking...

Richard Russell snippet
Dow Theory Letters
posted Dec 14, 2009

December 11, 2009 -- In my business, you're never living in the present (which is kind of crazy). You're always focused on the future -- the unknown future. At any rate, here's what I've been thinking.

Globalization has occurred over the last decade. This is why the world is now different, different than it has ever been before. In the space of a few years, three billion souls have joined the world economy. This has never happened before in the history of man.

[traderabc] 14/12/2009 16:20

The Fed’s “Independence” Argument Is False


Washington’s Blog
Monday, Dec 14th, 2009

The House has passed a bill to audit the Federal Reserve. 79% of the American people support a full audit.

In response, the Fed says that an audit would interfere with its “independence”.

However, the Constitution does not empower a central bank, and Congress – which created the Federal Reserve in 1913 and which has the power to create credit and money – certainly has the power to audit, dissolve, or do whatever it likes with the central bank (including stripping it of the power to create credit).

I have previously pointed out that the the independence argument is a red herring.

And I have previously demonstrated that the Fed has done a terrible job of managing the economy, keeping unemployment low, and regulating banks.

Now, in an interview this weekend with Der Spiegel, Paul Volcker – while trying to support the Fed’s argument for independence – actually undermines it:

[traderabc] 14/12/2009 16:19

Fastest Food Inflation Since Riots Means Milk Up 39%


Alan Bjerga, Madelene Pearson and Yi Tian
Bloomberg
Monday, Dec 14th, 2009

Flashback: Third World Under Attack From Genocidal Climate Change Policy

Falling production in commodities from rice to milk is bad news for just about everyone except investors.

Rice may surge 63 percent to $1,038 a metric ton from $638 on Philippine imports and a shortage in India, a Bloomberg survey of importers, exporters and analysts showed. The U.S. government says nonfat dry milk may jump 39 percent next year, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasts a 25 percent gain for sugar. Global food costs jumped 7 percent in November, the most since February 2008, four months before reaching a record, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

Farm prices this year lagged behind copper futures that doubled and oil’s 57 percent increase. A recovery from the worst recession since World War II would spur food demand and boost costs for buyers of commodities including milk processor Dean Foods Co. while increasing the number of hungry people that the UN says now exceeds 1 billion.

“Agricultural commodities will be a great investment in the next three to five years,” said Oliver Kratz, who manages $10 billion as head of Global Thematic Strategy investments at Deutsche Bank AG’s DB Advisors in New York, including $3 billion in agriculture. For those who can’t afford to pay more for food, there’s the “painful”; risk of hunger, he said.

[traderabc] 14/12/2009 11:03

Drug money saved banks in global crisis, claims UN advisor

Drugs and crime chief says $352bn in criminal proceeds was effectively laundered by financial institutions

The Observer, Sunday 13 December 2009
Article history

Drugs money worth billions of dollars kept the financial system afloat at the height of the global crisis, the United Nations' drugs and crime tsar has told the Observer.

Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organised crime were "the only liquid investment capital" available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result.

[traderabc] 14/12/2009 10:17

Jim Rogers On Yahoo Tech Ticker December 10,2009

[traderabc] 14/12/2009 10:13

Jim Rogers Bloomberg December 2009 1/2



Jim Rogers Bloomberg December 2009 2/2

[traderabc] 14/12/2009 10:07

Sunday, December 13, 2009
Jim Rogers I am not a Gold Bug I prefer Silver to Gold


Jim Rogers on Goldseek Radio 12 Dec 2009

Jim Rogers I do not think I am a gold bug I own gold but I do not think gold is holly or mystical , , all commodities could be in a bubble , Silver is more attractive than many commodities , Silver is 70% its all time high , I 'd rather buy silver or palladium than gold , in history silver was more a monetary device than gold , around the world it is silver wher people keep their money to secure their their financial stability....part of the reason the stocks gone up lately was a consequence of the massive printing , we may have a stock market correction soon....

[traderabc] 14/12/2009 10:06

Jim Rogers- CNBC-12.10.09

[traderabc] 12/12/2009 21:16

'A bit of internet protection'

Thanks Dazz17, I'll check them out.

[dazz17] 11/12/2009 23:04

traderabc

A bit of internet protection

[traderabc] 10/12/2009 14:20

Max just on the news just a few minutes ago to talk about Dubai, the debt crisis and the truth telling by markets.

[traderabc] 10/12/2009 13:43

Keiser Report №4: Markets! Finance! Scandal!