Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 04/4/2012 11:59

Don't let them tell you that war is good for business.



The Broken Window Fallacy

[traderabc] 02/4/2012 20:50

Keiser Report: Kamikaze Banking (E269)

[traderabc] 31/3/2012 09:22

A few new uploads here

[traderabc] 30/3/2012 16:25

Bernanke goes to College, while Corzine may finally be headed to Jail (Jim Rogers at min 7.50)

[traderabc] 30/3/2012 12:31

MEP Nigel Farage

[tenapen] 29/3/2012 20:08

049balt - Thanks for the Agri post.

[traderabc] 29/3/2012 19:44

Martin Armstrong on the Sovereign Debt Crisis

Ron Hera
Hera Research, LLC
Mar 29, 2012

The Hera Research Newsletter is pleased to present a fascinating interview with Martin A. Armstrong, founder and former Head of Princeton Economics, Ltd. In the 1980s, Princeton Economics became the leading multinational corporate advisor with offices in Paris, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney and in 1983 Armstrong was named by the Wall Street Journal as the highest paid advisor in the world.

As a top currency analyst and frequent contributor to academic journals, Armstrong's views on financial markets remain in high demand. Armstrong was requested by the Presidential Task Force (Brady Commission) investigating the 1987 U.S. stock market crash and, in 1997, Armstrong was invited to advise the People's Bank of China during the Asian Currency Crisis.

Based on a study of historical gold prices and financial panics, Armstrong developed a cyclical theory of commodity prices, which lead to the pi-cycle economic confidence model (ECM), used to make long term forecasts. Using the ECM, Armstrong predicted both the high-water mark of the Nikkei in 1989, months ahead of time, and the July 20, 1998 high in the U.S. equities market, as well as a major top in financial markets on February 27, 2007. The ECM was called "The Secret Cycle" by the New Yorker Magazine and Justin Fox wrote in Time Magazine that Armstrong's model "made several eerily on-the-mark calls using a formula based on the mathematical constant pi." (Pg 30; Nov. 30, 2009).

To view this interview

[049balt] 29/3/2012 17:17

One of Australia's leading agribusiness experts is Professor John Chudleigh. He told Landline there's a worldwide shift in attitude towards agriculture.

PROFESSOR JOHN CHUDLEIGH, AGRICULTURAL ANALYST: It's very rare and I don't think we've experienced it before, that all the commodities - not just our food commodities, but our fibres as well, and our minerals - have run into a situation where they're in relatively short supply. And this means that the competition for land use now is real competition, because we don't have a situation where one enterprise is chasing more land because it's the more profitable one.

So farmers now have a tremendous choice in land use, right throughout the world.

KERRY LONERGAN: So are these actually seminal moments for agribusiness or just another part of the boom and bust cycle?

JOHN CHUDLEIGH: No I think there's a worldwide change occurring at the moment. And I think we're seeing some massive changes in the whole attitude, not only of farmers but of the populations in many countries and of governments towards the agricultural scene.

For too long, I think, governments and populations in general have assumed the cheap food that we managed to produce with technology for the last 30 or 40 years would continue forever. Unfortunately for the population, I think that era has come to an end and we're now facing a period of a massive adjustment in the way we spend our money in order to live.

KERRY LONERGAN: From what you say, Professor Chudleigh, it's driven by the most fundamental law of economics - that of supply and demand. Are Australian farmers well situated to cash in on this boom?

JOHN CHUDLEIGH: Absolutely. Very well placed. And even though our dollar will continue to strengthen while-ever commodities are strong, I think the price will be more than adequate to give farmers enough profit to bring in the new technology on a far wider scale that will be needed to continue to increase production.

KERRY LONERGAN: Now, the international situation Professor Chudleigh. I understand you have a somewhat different take on the problems in the Middle East - that is food, and the cost of food is part of the discontent.

JOHN CHUDLEIGH: Yes, I think the unrest that's occurring is not totally but is partly occurring because of the food situation. I think in many of those countries there's many, many poor people that are trying to live on one or two dollars a day.

And when you double the price of food - whether it's food aid or the food in those countries - then you get a lot of unrest for people finding it very, very difficult to continue to keep their very meagre standard of living up. So whilst it may not be the total reason, I'm sure it's part of the reason.

KERRY LONERGAN: Yes, I guess hunger would be a somewhat powerful motivator. What about food security for countries? It's always been a factor with Japan. Are other countries starting to feel the same way?

JOHN CHUDLEIGH: Absolutely. China's been leading the way in this, and it's been quietly building stocks of many of its commodities in order to ensure its future security. And even now it's moving out to other countries of the world - including Africa, that we mentioned - in order to secure future food supplies. And there's quite a lot of concern about this sort of investment occurring in other countries.

KERRY LONERGAN: Yes, China seems to be everywhere. How active in Africa is China in agribusiness?

JOHN CHUDLEIGH: Well, they've secured some massive tracts of land. Whether it's good or bad depends on the attitude you take.

Obviously they'll bring technology and new techniques into those countries, mainly to produce food to take back to China itself. But in most of the arrangements that I've read of, there will certainly be a reasonable spin-off for the locals as well.

We can only hope and see what happens in the future there, but even if the technology they bring in and the training they bring in to the locals can spin-off in a wider area in those countries, then that investment may be worthwhile. After all, most of those countries are very poor, the governments are not really interested in looking after the people in many cases and they're unlikely to get the investment money from their own governments that's needed for them to become self sufficient in food, rather than relying on aid.

So it's a very two-edged sword that only history will tell us whether it's been a good or bad development.

KERRY LONERGAN: So finally, Professor Chudleigh, food, farming, agribusiness - good times ahead for Australian farmers and graziers?

JOHN CHUDLEIGH: I can't see any major problem. Of course, with prices the way they are now there's going to be significant volatility, because this boom has brought the speculators in in a big way. And as they move around in the markets we'll see big jumps and big falls. But I can assure you that I firmly believe that the overall trend in nearly everything we produce in agriculture now is upwards.

KERRY LONERGAN: Professor Chudley, thanks again for your time on Landline.

JOHN CHUDLEIGH: Thank you, Kerry.

[traderabc] 29/3/2012 12:22

[KR268] Keiser Report – Backstage Wall Street

[traderabc] 29/3/2012 11:58

Jim Rogers: CNN Money interview - 26 March 2012

[traderabc] 29/3/2012 11:57

Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Jim Rogers : Commodity prices still in a major uptrend

Jim Rogers interviewed by the Indian ET Now 27 March 2012 : commodity prices have not been in a downturn , they may have been in a short term downturn , but long term commodity prices are still in a major uptrend , and that's going to continue , yes they have postponed Armageddon I am glad you put it that way , 2013 and 2014 are what I am most worried about , because this year everybody is trying to just get through the next election , there are 40 elections in 2012 Aisha , everybody is going to do their best to get us through their election " says legendary investor Jim Rogers

[traderabc] 27/3/2012 14:21

The U.K. Is Not O.K.


Britain's 'austerity drive' really has been nothing of the sort when you look at the numbers (which we shall do in a moment), but somehow, in a brilliant piece of marketing, the coalition government have managed to talk tough whilst simultaneously bringing the UK's Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (PSBR) to a little over 60% ABOVE where it was when they took office in May 2010.

In his most recent piece of surgical brilliance, Greg Weldon (www.weldononline.com) laid out the numbers in simple fashion, revealing just how bad things have become in the Sceptered Isle:

[traderabc] 27/3/2012 14:20

[KR267] Keiser Report: Muppets Hunting Muppets

[traderabc] 27/3/2012 10:36

Thanks Briarberry, yes it's a very good book, I really ought to read it again as it's been a decade since I last did. The chapters on the crusades was a real eye opener for me.



Jim Rogers Interview on being successful, investing in the future, and preparing for civil unrest

[briarberry] 26/3/2012 14:00

Yeah I bought that book mentioned in the link. If anyone buys themselves a copy, remember to buy the paperback and not the hardback as the hardback is only 96 pages long.

But the book is full of fairly boring history and not contrarian market timing skills. The wikipedia versions of the South-Sea Bubble and Tulip Mania are easier to read



Paperback: 624 pages
Hardcover: 96 pages

[traderabc] 26/3/2012 12:37

"Right now, at $1662.80 gold, investors are more negative on gold shares than they have ever been in history and that marks bottoms. For both shares and gold."

Extremes of Emotion

Bob Moriarty
Archives
Mar 26, 2012

There are a whole slew of interesting theories about investing that simply don't work. Technical analysis doesn't work. Fundamental analysis doesn't work. Elliott Wave doesn't work except in hindsight. Robert Prechter spent half of the last decade waiting for $200 gold and he's made millions of dollars selling books teaching people how to use the Elliott Wave.

Now that I've got your attention and have you madder than a wet hen because you know TA works or fundamental analysis works or Elliott Wave works, let me clarify what I mean.

[traderabc] 25/3/2012 22:30

UKIP Nigel Farage - Speaking in Greece March 2012

[traderabc] 25/3/2012 14:51

Don't believe the hype -- the U.S economy is not recovering, it's getting sicker.

[traderabc] 25/3/2012 10:00

Open-Ended Bailouts Are Continuing for Big Banks





Big Banks Continue to Suck at the Government Teat With Never-Ending Stealth Bailouts

We've previously documented the fact that bailouts of the big banks are continued in stealth mode up to the present day.

True, the banks claim they've repaid the Tarp bailout funds ... but nearly half of the banks "repaid" such bailout funds by borrowing from other government bailout funds (and the rest could only repay money by fudging their accounting and using stealth bailouts which are are a little harder to detect).

Indeed, the government has decided on perpetual bailouts for the too big to fail banks.

Some of the ongoing stealth bailouts include:

[traderabc] 23/3/2012 12:18

Jim Rogers: Why You Want To Own Hard Assets In An Age Of Inflation
The Commodity Bull Market Has A Long Way To Run


Jim Puplava welcomes back to Financial Sense Newshour legendary investor, author and commentator Jim Rogers. Rogers believes the US is one of the better places to invest this year. However, he is very concerned about 2013 and 2014, as he sees higher taxes and inflation taking a heavy toll. Rogers sees the commodity bull market continuing in either a strong or weak global economy.

[traderabc] 23/3/2012 10:11

Report: Water Shortages To Spark Global Unrest, US Privatizing Supplies




US will begin to privatize water supplies following a classified intelligence report that warns water shortages will spark global unrest within 10 years or so.

An intelligence report based on classified information warns water shortages will soon lead to global unrest and threaten the National Security of the United States.

The intelligence reports that wars over water won't happen over night, but within another 10 years the lack of water is expected to become crucial to the point where it can contribute to conditions that cause the collapse of governments or spark wars in areas of political instability.

[traderabc] 23/3/2012 09:59

Rogers: 'I Hope That the Chinese Market Collapses So I Can Buy Shares'

[traderabc] 22/3/2012 12:20

London market hits meltdown within hours of Budget


Thursday 22nd March 2012

The London property market plunged into meltdown yesterday.

The effects were seen in the rapid wake of the Chancellor's bombshell announcement that purchasers using companies as the buying vehicles of £2m-plus properties would be stung by 15% Stamp Duty as from midnight. In London, buying via company vehicles is extremely common.

Within hours, London agents were reporting chaos, as deal after deal fell through. Staff at some upmarket agents, including Savills - which last week revealed it has 50 properties on its books at £15m or more - were working until midnight trying to get deals through before the deadline.