Bellway Share Discussion Threads

[tom2022] 28/3/2022 09:00

Hi Buywell, timing is clearly not everything, I think my example proved that. It also seems like you're pretty bad at timing the market as you've only started telling people to sell out when prices are already crashing...

[tom2022] 23/3/2022 18:02

Thanks Buywell. I note that buying this April 2007 for 1,605p (just before it crashed) and selling today at 2,768p (~30% down from all time high) would have been awful market timing but would still have produced a gain of 72%, excluding dividends which were paid every year.

[buywell3] 23/3/2022 09:04

Housebuilders nearly all dropping today as many other sectors rise

IMO fight this at your peril

Rising rates are coming --- again and again and again

The market is starting to price this in but imo are playing catchup with inflation heading to 8% plus and still rising

[buywell3] 20/3/2022 22:50

To show no bias

What happens in America and what is happening in America will result in what happens in the UK --- if you do your research you will corroborate this fact


The number of USA houses that were for sale has just risen by over 13% in feb year on year

ie Supply is now accelerating as the wise yanks want to cash in their brick piles

USA house/condo sales have dropped year on year for the last consecutive 7 months in a row

ie Demand is weakening

Ref New Builds or Houses under construction in the USA --- unsold numbers are now at 2008 levels and up 70% year on year --- this coupled with massive increased costs due to raw building materials causing stalls in many new build projects

Many USA builders could go bust if these remain unsold

Supply of new builds grows as existing sales of old/ used houses stalls

Inflation in the USA is now at 40 year highs

The FED plans to do another 6 rate rises in 2022

The 30yr fixed mortgage rate stands at circa 4.4% now and is thus on track to hit 6% by the end of this year

Inflation is not going away and the FED wants it at 2% --- next month it will likely hit 9% and still rising



The USA property market is now in top end bubble territory and soon to pop

The UK property market follows the USA with a lag of 12 months

dyor

[tom2022] 08/2/2022 21:42

I find the following noteworthy: "the use of Help-to-Buy fell to just 18% of total reservations (2021 - 41%), a marked reduction compared to previous years."
This suggests that it is actually possible to sell new builds without government support for (wealthy) buyers.

I favour Bellway within this sector because of its impressive track record and very dull strategy for delivering more of the same for years to come:
"The Board believes that value generation is best evaluated through capital growth, by increasing the net asset value per share ('NAV'), together with the payment of a regular dividend." I note that BWY trades at a lower price/book than TW., PSN or BDEV. I believe this is because BWY is so boring that everyone has forgotten that it exists.

[km18] 08/2/2022 17:29

...from Q4 last year...

Bellway plc issued prelims for the year ended 31st July 2021 yesterday. Revenues were up 40%, Operating profit 65% and EPS over 100%. The company also reported a net cash pile of £330m. Strong recovery in profitability, supported by good market conditions and a robust balance sheet and a total dividend per share of 117.5p was proposed, a rise of 135%. Home building is recovering from lockdowns, revenues are nearly back at FY19 levels, EPS and DPS still a little way off. Business momentum is positive and valuation is attractive. Forward PE ratio of 9 is top quartile for the Homebuilding & Construction Supplies sector. Meanwhile, the balance sheet is healthy. We would expect the share price to return to pre-Covid peaks next year and kick on to new record highs. There are decent returns here. BUY....from WealthOracleAM

[cerrito] 08/2/2022 07:46

For me a reassuring TU and they appear to feel that discussions with Mr Gove are best done at this time at least behind closed doors.
Interested that no real comment on supply issues.

[cerrito] 06/2/2022 18:40

Remember TU due on Tuesday

[undervaluedassets] 09/11/2021 08:44

Essentially the article said that management has spelt out that demand for houses was strong and that the intention was to meet that demand with increased sales. Sounds reasonable.

(They have the land bank to do it as well).

[luderitz] 08/11/2021 10:22

What was the gist WM please?

[weemonkey] 08/11/2021 08:01

Write up in FT over weekend which spelled out thesis for recent heavy director buying.

NTAV of 1.21. So there is value here too.

[cerrito] 25/10/2021 18:42

Good to see a director digging into his leans for £q00k to buy shares.

[undervaluedassets] 19/10/2021 12:35

Very decent results I thought.

[cerrito] 19/10/2021 08:47

Pretty gutsy comment by the Chairman for cumulative underlying Pretax profit over next 2 years to be £1.25b.Also growth targets.
At the same time CEO says that because of supply constraints production in this current semester starting August 1 2021 will be the same as the semester starting August 1 2020.

[cerrito] 10/8/2021 13:20

Interesting to compare some of the figures given today and those on June 6.
Net cash has decreased from £408k to £330k in the period perhaps partially explained by increase in plots contracted from 15982 to 19819. I see that the order book has increased from £1889m to £2022m.

[riverman77] 16/6/2021 15:58

I think it's a combination of rising costs (materials and labour) and the end of stamp duty holiday, and the impact this could have on volumes given that lots of purchases been brought forward. I would personally wait to fall a bit more before considering. I see better value and less risk in land developers such as Harworth who supply plots to builders - they are not so exposed to rising costs, whilst all the builders have reported making big land purchases so they should be seeing strong demand.

[cerrito] 16/6/2021 15:47

I did not think the TU was that bad to provoke the fall in the share price but not good enough for me to take advantage of the reduced price and buy more.

[undervaluedassets] 28/5/2021 09:34

low price to book. Good land bank

[stpalm] 05/5/2021 02:10

Everyone I talk to says they are having problems sourcing certain items or there has been major price inflation on some moderate on most. I work through a diverse range of industries. Big importers seem doing ok, small business as always is getting its pants pulled down. Everything from availability in country of origin to costs of import/export to availability of shipping containers. I can't believe that this is not going to cause some revenue contraction in real terms. But the flip side is that if people can't get the things they want they invest some in the markets. we all know through the qe there is a lot of cash floating about at the moment but that will change. Even if you form an opinion about the current situation when furlough ends I think we will have to re-assess. I don't have many of these but most house builders charts look very similar. I didn't do much due diligence but stockopedia makes it easy so I bought a few of each. Looking good but feel like a trim in case of a variant flare up. Interesting times. GLA

[cerrito] 30/4/2021 14:00

As a BWY shareholder, I was interested to read the following in the FT

and for those with difficulty accessing the FT see

This concerns the shortage of materials.
I listened to the webinar of the interims back in March and at that time the CEO was pretty relaxed though he did cite timber and tiles.
I do not know if the situation has got worse since then.
Not clear to me how much their margins suffer from such price increases and how much is picked up by their sub contractors.
I went to the risks section in the last AR and on page 38 see that the following was cited as the third biggest risk which at the time of writing was unchanged from the year before.
Any views anyone??
Of course if there are serious shortages that will delay final construction and good that BWY has a strong and liquid balance sheet so can take that in its stride.

[cerrito] 30/4/2021 11:07

wrong thread, sorry

[davr0s] 10/4/2021 20:48

Yep so far it is doing just fine. There'll be pullbacks along the way. As long as they are not too deep I'll leave it running

[itisonlymoney] 24/3/2021 11:28

ok. good luck, i hope it does.