Belgravium Share Discussion Threads

[varies] 12/7/2014 12:28

Thank you, Pavey Ark (alias Clogue), for your words of comfort. I hope very much you will be proved right.
Looking yet again at the Report and Accounts for 2013, I see that Mr Kembery was the 3rd best paid director (£85,000) after Messrs Hardy (£176,000 + pension cotributions of £34,000) and Unwin (£108,000).
This is relevant since the amount of pay he now receives must affect Mr. Kembery's attitude to any offer for BVM that might deprive him of this income.
The performance of BVM shares last week makes me doubt whether we are soon going, as I hoped, to receive an offer of 10p per share but, if we do, this would give Mr. K. c£920,000 for his shares plus (presumably) compensation for loss of office. If he is approaching retirement anyway and has a decent pension lined up, this must be an attractive proposition.
The other directors hold few shares.
The ready supply of shares from 5.7p down to 5.0p suggests that some shareholders take a gloomy view of BVM's prospects. They may be better informed than we are; let us hope there is no horrid shock coming.
Under rule 8.3 everyone holding 1% or more of the capital will have to declare it by the end of this coming week and I shall be interested to see how many shareholders on this scale BVM has.

[curlly] 11/7/2014 15:54

could well go back to 4p looking at the chart

[loverat] 11/7/2014 15:52

It just has!

[esmerelda] 11/7/2014 15:38

Oh well, that might teach me to 'get up early' and buy a few this morning at 5.34. I'll hold for the long term and buy a few more if it goes below 5.

[pavey ark] 10/7/2014 09:33

As I said,I've not being giving this the attention I perhaps should have but even in the worst of times BVM jogs along and ALWAYS makes a profit.
Just spent 10 minutes looking at recent new and reports and I certainly can't see the board even considering anything less than 10p/share (unless they really want out).

By simple calculation this company has generated close to £800k in free cash in the last 17 months when you consider the acquisition and exceptional costs (I did not include £100K dividend payment).
Management have never been ones to gush so you should compare the "outlook" statement from March 2013 with the same in 2014.
Also agm statement (May 2014)
Two contracts worth £1.5m in H1 and Feedback making a profit and generating cash.

Feedback, new contracts, 2013 reorganization complete and their market improving, generating loads of cash and heading for a year (2014) end cash pile of over £2.5m.

I sold about 25% of my holding a few months back but this was because I wanted to invest in something else rather than anything being amiss here.
I still hold a fairly large amount and have no intentions of selling.

It's bad enough that this company is sitting at under 6p on fundamentals but with a bid approach it speaks volumes about the UK AIM market and the UK AIM private investor.

This is too small to have much/any coverage so you will not have some hack telling you to buy.
Time to strap on a pair.

[pavey ark] 09/7/2014 12:24

varies, see previous post re: clogue.

[tweeeek] 09/7/2014 11:56

Its a fantastic opportunity to add, the company is growing, cash rich, competent people at the helm, and derisory offers will naturally be frowned upon.

[pavey ark] 08/7/2014 12:44

varies, had the price gone up to 6p/6.5p on some contract/results news I would have sold some then a few more at 7.5p etc. but to sell today when there is a possible bid in the offing does seem very strange.
As you know I've certainly not been a fan of the management but the company has no debt, good cash generation, has never made a loss and is paying a dividend so holding for better times is not difficult.

If BVM can look like producing a profit of 600k/700k this year and increase it's cash position it is certainly an attractive buy at 10m or 10p/share especially with a pile of cash and immediate efficiency savings to the purchaser.

If it is sold for less than 10p/share it would be because people are tired of waiting for a return to pre crash level of turnover and profit.

I was/am prepared to wait, for the reasons given above.

Edit: not been paying much attention here recently but have the old guard all sold up before today ?

[varies] 08/7/2014 12:40

PS
I was wrong in thinking that Hargreave Hale held over 3%. They went below this figure in march and have just announced that they hold only 21,000 shares.

[harrison15] 08/7/2014 12:00

PJ1 you say you have met Management, one person or the team.........who exactly?

[varies] 08/7/2014 11:01

Pavey Ark
Having bought a few more shares at 5.65p this morning, I then wrote a post here to say why I think that the shares are still attractive at this price. My link to the internet disappeared abruptly and my posting with it but I have no regret since you have expressed so well what I was going to say !
Amongst large shareholders there are Mr. Kembery, as you say, Mr McDougall (a former non-exec director) with 6% and Chelverton Growth Trust also with 6%. I do not know whether Chelverton is connected with the management.
The other large shareholders are various nominee companies and Hargreave Hale.So it is possible that a hostile bid might succeed.
It seems more likely that Mr. Kembery might be tempted to retire.

[pavey ark] 08/7/2014 09:57

I would have thought that the statement made this morning was standard and could even be part of a strategy by TRAK.
Given the price this morning I would consider that there is absolutely no bid premium here.
If BVM has close to £2m cash (?)then the rest of the company is valued at £3m/£4m (they paid £0.6m cash for Feedback a year ago).

Whither this deal goes ahead is largely unimportant as it shows that BVM is in the frame for a takeover.

Couple of things to consider:
The management hold quite a few shares (Kembery 10%)
With pension, perks and bonus the Kembery,the MD and CFO take over £400k / year I think any acquiring company would make massive savings here.
Are management looking to get out ?

I have been critical of senior management before and I think that any acquiring company would fancy their chances of improving on the company's performance.

If things are really improving and the contracts keep coming in then 6p is a perfectly reasonable near term price target, if someone want to buy the company they should and will pay more.

As I said at the start,there would appear to be little downside for the long term holder and a fair bit of upside if this or another deal goes ahead.

[pj 1] 08/7/2014 08:08

harrison15 8 Jul'14 - 07:58 - 1259 of 1259 0 0


PJ1 Maybe you should have gone top the presentation at the AGM? You would then be able to make informed and educated comment about the 'management' rather than your ill informed opinion
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I have met the Management, nothing I stated was 'informed'. Stuggling with the point of your post

[harrison15] 08/7/2014 07:58

PJ1 Maybe you should have gone top the presentation at the AGM? You would then be able to make informed and educated comment about the 'management' rather than your ill informed opinion

[pj 1] 07/7/2014 22:58

I'd take 6p and be happy as the management here have no skill to take this any further imo.

For info no position but previous large loss.

[norbert colon] 07/7/2014 22:51

I would like to see a bid in excess of 8p which is circa 1 x sales (2013) and still a discount to BV. Managed to buy these initially at 2.8p this time last year when they were a huge discount buy and I seemed like billy no mates. Added in Nov 2013 still at bargain prices and dont want to see these go too cheap.

[cockerhoop] 07/7/2014 17:52

When TRAK bought Box in October 2013 they paid £4.5m in cash, financed by company retained funds, a debt facility and a placing.

[davidosh] 07/7/2014 17:40

The interims should be released in about six weeks as period end was 30th June. we could do with seeing those before making any decision on a bid. That said I do think a third party bidder could make some efficiency savings and cut out duplicated costs if BVM taken over and TRAK paper is valued much higher so they may consider that to be good currency in a deal.

[russman] 07/7/2014 17:23

Value about last years sales figure considering poor return on capital. If they could show some sales growth, it would help their negotiations.

[kemche] 07/7/2014 17:03

Which bits perplex you so harrison?