Barratt Developments Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 25/2/2015 11:10

yep, but most of us take the pros and cons into account taffee - you only see the negatives despite being so badly wrong for so long.

All imo/dyor etc

CR

[taffee] 25/2/2015 11:08

Well isn't that all part and parcel of investing and discussion boards?

[cockneyrebel] 25/2/2015 11:03

'what if' taffee?

what if your aunty had balls? She'd be your uncle!

You can spend your whole life asking 'what if'. What if an asteroid hits London?

You take all the what if's into account and make a decision. It's the unknown 'what if's' that are the danger.

What if interest rates don't rise for another 3 years? There's plenty of what ifs.

All imo

CR

[taffee] 25/2/2015 10:44

We know that..that's not my point....do investors see the risks?...the list
Of props currently is pretty astonishing including help to buy..29% of
Completions I believe...gov giving people 20% to buy already overpriced property
What if this was cut?...

[joe say] 25/2/2015 10:38

They have a legal duty to report the risks - as simple as that

These must be bespoke to the company rather than generic in nature

[1gw] 25/2/2015 10:12

Taffee - have a look at your track record. Post below from 9th Oct when BDEV was at £3.70. 37% increase since then. Of course you're likely to be right eventually - there will be a correction at some point - but the builders themselves are all coming out and saying how good current conditions are (including the land market) and how they think the market is set up for sustainable measured growth.

taffee 9 Oct'14 - 12:12 - 70 of 630 0 0

geewhizz.....take a step back and look at the property market reports and then
ring some London agents

property market is on the verge of a huge tumble and crash....now is not the time to own property related shares

if prices fall then builders profits are toast

[taffee] 25/2/2015 10:06

It can turn on a dime..this statement was from 2008 and we know what happened
Then....Builders have defied all the odds...my point is for how long?

As announced with the interim results on 27 February 2008, the Group made a relatively encouraging start to the new calendar year.
However, since the end of March, market conditions have deteriorated significantly as a result of an unprecedented reduction in mortgage
availability and tightening lending criteria, combined with a decline in consumer confidence.

[cockneyrebel] 25/2/2015 10:05

taffee - if they didn't highlight the risks wouldn't that be more worrying?

CR

[1gw] 25/2/2015 09:52

Well if you're listening to the call taffee, they sound very confident on the future and on their prospects for meeting their FY17 targets. Very strong start to the calendar year (first 8 weeks), consistently so after week 1. Even London high end they say is selling, although it's slowed and there isn't the froth that there was 18-24 months ago.

[taffee] 25/2/2015 09:33

Great results but Barratt cites risk in statement below...well just about
Everything you can think of is a risk...how long can this sweet spot continue?

Economic environment, including housing demand and mortgage availability

Changes in the UK and European macroeconomic environments, including unemployment, flat economic growth, buyer confidence, availability of mortgage finance particularly for higher loan to values including Government backed schemes, the ability of purchasers to repay shared equity loans, interest rates, competitor pricing, or falls in house prices or land values, may lead to a fall in the demand for houses which in turn could result in impairments of the Group's inventories, goodwill and intangible assets

[gbh2] 25/2/2015 09:03

There's always profit takers and the HFs will have sufficient cheaper shares on their books to drive the price down for another run up as ex dividend dates approaches......profit on the way down and on the way up with a nice divi pick up thereafter.

[arja] 25/2/2015 07:36

thanks Lauders . resuits seem OK but look what happened to BVS after good results. Might be different reaction to BDEV results though !

[1gw] 25/2/2015 07:27

Looks pretty good to me. Great YoY comparatives (ROCE up from 14% to 22%, op margin up from 11% to 14%) and another builder commenting on good current trading conditions ("strong start to the second half"). What do Jefferies think now?

[hubs] 25/2/2015 07:12

Robust figures. Good dividend increases. Will hold and hold with this. GLA.

[lauders] 25/2/2015 05:54

From the last trading update in January:

Barratt Developments PLC ('the Group') is today issuing a trading update in respect of the six months ended 31 December 2014 (the 'period') ahead of its half year results announcement on 25 February 2015.

Need to wait just over 1 more hour arja!

[arja] 25/2/2015 05:40

are results announced today or has it been delayed ?

[montyhedge] 24/2/2015 20:09

Bears saying property overpriced last 3 years, yawnnnnn.

[cockneyrebel] 24/2/2015 10:18

In the 60's, 2.5% interest rate was normal taffee. Perhaps the market just got used to hideously high rates like the 12% odd we had in the 80's when that was abnormal.

Interest rates only need to be a little ahead of inflation to tame inflation so until inflation picks up, where's the need to hike rates? And if inflation rose to 2% we would only need rates of 2.5% to help keep that reasonably anchored in all likelihood.

So the reality might be we aren't far off normality - longer term normality anyway.

All imo/dyor etc.

CR

[taffee] 24/2/2015 08:55

Builders are certainly in a sweet spot...unfortunately it's mainly down
To ridiculous props like help to buy and near zero interest rates

Help to buy should be renamed help for builders to sell overpriced property
And increase prices

How sustainable is this?....bears think we are in a property bubble that is
Bursting bulls think we are off to the races...one is right

[arja] 24/2/2015 07:50

true launders - but always risky to hold a stock on results day and I rarely do but i play the markets using CFDs and not exoensive to jump in and out I guess .

[lauders] 24/2/2015 06:48

Everyone has to consider the risks etc... arja and those who did not buy before the upcoming results may regret it. Is BDEV likely to do worse than the others builders who have issued results so far? Given their confidence in the last update it seems unlikely and we shall soon find out.

[arja] 24/2/2015 06:00

disappointing performance yesterday just as it looked like a breakout from £5 level . Probably nervous ahead of results tomorrow and BVS pullback !

[montyhedge] 23/2/2015 15:30

Single figure p.e's for the sector going forward.Don't be short and caught.

[montyhedge] 23/2/2015 15:28

The trend is your friend and for all house builders it's certainly up and still a long way to go. Bears have done their b-ll-cks.