Barclays.27 Discussion Threads

[dazz17] 03/12/2006 20:04

energyi


Any chance of updating the 78.2 week cycle chart in the header.

looks like it could help you to retire early, if thats what you want...;)

Tia

[energyi] 15/9/2004 06:45

Hmmm...
Well, Dollar strength may be over or nearly over.
And I believe this stock rally may be peaking very soon

See 233wk MA:

[kaffee] 15/9/2004 06:23

Great thread.

Just one question energyi... I'm a very simple man, so could you, or anybody else reading this thread explain how it could be that the Dollar would be strong (energyi - 30 Jul'04 - 19:59 - 16 of 18) yet a 'siginificant' low is being predicted for the SPX etc ??

In selling dollar based assets, you'd be giving your dollars to any bidder... and if the market in plummeting, who will be buying dollars ?!? Or have I got that ar$e about face ?

[energyi] 15/9/2004 05:47

Bottom was about 10.Aug,
Decent rally since then. +400/500 dow points
Will that Cycle invert- with the Sept.Low?

Granville (on TFNN interview last night) was very Bearish.
Is looking for 3,000 points down from here

[energyi] 30/7/2004 18:59

(Jake Bernstein) interviewed on TFNN:


Precious Metals:
8 years cycle, has 1 to 1.5 years left
Biggest move:
Normally Mid/Late Aug. to Mid/Late Sept. (can start early Aug.)
Gold, Silver, Platinum will RUN ON INFLATION

Currencies/ Dollar:
Period of Dollar strength may continue,
and we may see Both Dollar & Gold strong (ie Gold strong in Euros)


Stocks:
Smaller cycle: 23.July Downturn starts

[energyi] 24/7/2004 07:49

Purely based upon the above charts,
it looks like the Cycle may be bottoming HERE near 9950

[chester] 21/7/2004 09:45

Apologies if your repeating yourself but what date had you in mind for the Sept low ?

[energyi] 20/7/2004 23:09

In theory, the will coincide

[chester] 20/7/2004 14:24

Energi - Will the 55 day cycle coincide with the 78.2 weekly cycle in September, or will the 55 day come before the 78.2 ?

[chester] 20/7/2004 14:17

Excellent thread.

[energyi] 18/7/2004 19:36

REAL RISK / Real Vulnerability in High Margin Debt

"Just look at how margin debt is once again building.

The combined totals for the NYSE and the NASD take us to where margin debt stood in October 1999, five months from one of the greatest blowoffs of all time, but the NASD numbers take us to the same levels as February 2000, only a few weeks before the peak! Although this measure bulged significantly last summer, the expansion may have been bond related, not stock related. There is another consideration as well; we cannot make any reasonable estimate of how much of home equity lines or refinancing monies are devoted to the purchase of stocks, but it must be considerable.

All told, we view sentiment as incredibly complacent, as if no harm can come the market's way..."

MORE: (Alan Newman):

[energyi] 18/7/2004 11:13

MORE ON CYCLES:

Here is a Recap written a few years back on common Market Cycles -

More Recognised Cycles

The 20 Year Cycle

The 20-year cycle has accurately called the historic and dramatic lows in the US stock market in 1903, 1921, 1942, 1962 and 1982. The next target for a low on this cycle is 2002, which coincides with the Kondratieff Cycle and other signals calling for a reversal around 2002-2003. (As the market may now be in a bear market, the reversal will only be a correction holding below previous highs.... If the cycle is to continue?)

The 8 and 12 Year Cycles

The ideal years called by the 8-year cycle in the US stock market are: 1934 (1933), 1942, 1950 (1949), 1958 (1957), 1966, 1974, 1982, 1990 and 1998. (Brackets indicate actual market bottoms, otherwise year shown is an actual bottom!) The next 8-year cycle occurs again in 2006.

The 12-year cycle is less reliable but coincides well with the other historic lows. The next forecast low called by the 12-year cycle is in 2010.

The 4 Year Cycle

The 4-year cycle has been very accurate over the last 50 years, calling a majority of turning points since 1954. Recently, the 4-year cycle has hit in 1994, 1998... the next being in 2002.

The 4-year cycle is usually explained by fundamentalists as being caused by the 4-year US presidential election. Each Presidential term usually contains 2 years of down-move followed by 2-years of up move.

@:

[energyi] 18/7/2004 11:03

LONGER CYCLES...?

I'm trying to get a Grip on them. This may help:

July 01, 2004
K-wave Winter and the Financial Markets ... by Clif Droke

Recently I made mention of the fact that we are in the deflationary phase of the 60-year (average) economic long-wave known as the K-wave. Some K-wave experts have divided it into quarters, with the first 15 years known as K-Wave "Spring," the second 15 years as "Summer," etc. We are in the final 10 or so years of the K-wave decline, which coincides with the 120-year Kress cycle bottom in 2014, which makes the K-wave season we're now in "Winter."

Along this line, I received a response from a reader after my last K-wave article in which he stated, "In one of your recent articles you stated your belief that we're in the Winter period of the Kondratieff cycle, and also that the next few years will be good for the stock market (and tech in particular) and for real estate. I don't understand how you can believe in both of these things simultaneously."

The above sentiment expresses a common misunderstanding that many investors have about long-waves or long-term cycles. It is assumed that because a particular cycle has peaked that prices must begin declining until that cycle bottoms. "It ain't necessarily so" would be the reply to this. The financial markets, and indeed, the larger economy, are complex entities influenced by numerous cycles that may be peaking or troughing simultaneously. This explains why a longer-term cycle can peak (e.g., the 30-year cycle peaking in 1999/2000) and yet stock prices can stay afloat and even make higher highs. This is because other dominant cycles are bottoming and turning up along the way and that provides enough support and momentum to keep prices afloat.

Now there comes a point along the cyclical curve, we'll call it the "hard down" phase, in which all the cycles which compose the dominant long-term rhythm are coming down together. That's when you can expect to see crashing stock market prices and a deteriorating economy. But until the "hard down" phase begins (defined as the final 10% of a cycle's duration), you can still be in the declining phase of a long-term cycle and still have a bull market underway depending on which of the shorter-term and intermediate-term cycles are still rising.

In the case of the K-wave, I appeal to one of the great master's of the K-wave, P.Q. Wall, who I recall saying that even in the declining part of the K-wave you can have a strong overall economy. This is because corporate profits are still rising due to low relative values of commodities due to the currents of deflation that accompany K-wave Winter. If we assume a 60-year K-wave, the "hard down" phase or final 10% would be 6 years. So we would look for weakness to set in around 2008 or 2009 based on the 120-year cycle bottom scheduled for 2014. If we presume a 70-year K-wave (which according to expert Ian Gordon is possible), then it could still be a few years away before K-wave Winter begins to exert a dramatic toll on the markets and the economy.

The gentleman who wrote the letter then goes on to ask, "When has a Kondratieff Winter been beneficial to the stock and real estate markets in the past? Not that I am opposing any of these two views of yours, if taken separately....What I don't understand, however, is how you can believe both of these things simultaneously, and how can you be right on both of them?"

That's a fair question to ask. When has a previous K-Wave Winter period been beneficial for stock prices in the past? How about in the 1940s? Most K-wave experts put the bottom of the previous K-wave and the start of a new one between 1949-1954. Let's use 1954 as a theoretical starting point, since it's when the 60-year cycle bottomed (one-half of a 120-year cycle), it's the date P.Q. Wall uses, and that date is close enough for government work since we're talking about a 60-70 year long-wave. Cycle expert Samuel Kress uses 1949-1954 as the bottom of the previous K-wave and the start of the current one. This dovetails nicely with his 120-year cycle which began in 1894 and is due to bottom in 2014. The years 1894 and 1954 are not arbitrary dates. In 1894, America was emerging from an economic depression and this proved to be the transitional time from an agrarian society to an industrial one. The 60-year period ending with 1954 was the transition from World War II era to the so-called Modern Era.

Now the K-wave Winter phase of the previous long-wave was approximately the period of time between 1939-1954. Was this period bad? Not at all. The 1940s saw a war-time stock market rally and a gradual post-Depression economic recovery. It wasn't until the early '50s that the country was hit with another recession (as the K-wave was bottoming). This shows that it's possible to have K-wave Winter and still have overall rising stock prices and a relatively stable economy right up until the bitter end.

Now think about this for a minute - the 12-year cycle bottomed at the end of 2002, which means the new 12-year cycle underway is now up until 2008. The 10-year cycle is due to bottom later this year, which means that the new 10-year cycle will be up until 2009. Taken together, these two cycles exert a powerful impact on the markets and economy. They are part of the 120-year cycle series, and the fact that 10-year cycle always bottoms at the end of the X-4 year of every decade explains why every X-5 year of the last 100 years has been an up year. With all the bears out there calling for a stock market crash and an economic decline in 2005, I have to ask "why?" Why are the bears betting against history...against the cycles? Go figure.

Incidentally, here's another something for the bears to chew on when they talk of an "October Massacre" this fall: Samuel Kress points out that October Massacres only happen when the 6-year or the 10-year cycles are peaking and the other cycles are down. Well this year the 10-year cycle is bottoming and the 6-year cycle doesn't peak until next year. Once again, an October Massacre in 2004 would be precedent setting.

Clif Droke
ClifDroke.com

[energyi] 18/7/2004 08:17

"55 Day Cycle" in INDU: Has been running as abt.Two Months
Current/, compare with the pattern directly below : ...SPX current...
..
....................

[energyi] 17/7/2004 20:35

Calculating Overlap...

"20 Year Cycle": Next LOW due 2006/7

..................

= = =
From Stan Harley's website:

In my study of the financial markets, I have found that
an awareness of cyclical functions is key to understanding
the movement of prices and investor behavior. The knowledge
and exploitation of cycles embodies one of the most
powerful analytical tools available for identifying
trends and forecasting their reversals. Once a cycle
has bottomed, the trend in the market is up until
the cycle peaks. After peaking, the trend in the market
will be down until the cycle bottoms.

The actual existence of specific time cycles in market
price behavior is not universally accepted. Many will
argue that recognizing cycles in the markets is akin to
seeing terrestrial objects in the clouds; if one looks
long enough for patterns that resemble specific shapes,
chances are one will find them. But close visual inspection
and simple mathematical analysis will reveal up and down
movements that do, indeed, occur on a regular basis. Each
market has a cyclical profile that consistently
affects price movement. The beginning of one cycle is
the end of another, and the time interval between the
two lows (troughs) defines the market cycle. But, like
most things in art and nature, there is variance. Cycles
are not an exact or precise clock. A 27 day cycle is not
always 27 days. Cycles expand and contract. In strongly
trending markets, they will sometimes fade, seemingly
disappear, or skip a beat or two, only to reoccur. Occasionally
they undergo a phase shift. And cycle highs and lows are
not always price highs and lows. It is not uncommon for
the price high or (especially) the low to occur before
the cycle high or low, with the cycle high/low associated
with the retest event.

Despite their lack of ultra-precision, cycles are a very
useful tool. The first premise in cyclical analysis is
to identify the longest dominant cycle, and then work
down to the smallest cycle affecting price activity. Most
cycles have subcycles embedded within them, usually two
or three, which I refer to as the alpha, bravo, and
charlie components. When a particular cycle is nearing
its trough, it will tend to dominate the shorter cycles
which comprise it, causing them to contract or expand
beyond their usual frequency schedule.

For my analysis, I like to perform a statistical analysis
of the cycle I have under study. I compute the mean, the
median, the variance and the standard deviation. I have
found that most cycles have a standard deviation on the
order of 20% of their mean periodicity. I then extrapolate
this information to predict the cycle's next occurrence.
The very best cycle I have found in the stock market
averages 19.625 weeks (99 trading days). With a standard
deviation of about 9 trading days (roughly 9%), this cycle
ranks as the very best of the cyclical functions I have
found. All other cycles I have found are prone to invert
and skip a beat or two. This one does not.

One final characteristic of cyclical behavior involves
the concept of translation. In bull markets, there is
the tendency for the cycle high (crest) to occur to the
right of the midpoint of the cycle. This is known as right
translation, with prices rising for a greater amount of
time to the high than it takes to decline to its next
low, and is characteristic of bull market cyclical structure.
In bear markets, the same cyclical schedule from low-to-low
is retained, but there is the tendency for the cycle high
to occur to the left of the midpoint of the cycle. This
is known as left translation, with prices rising for a
shorter amount of time to the high than it takes to decline
to it next low, and is characteristic of bear market cyclical
structure

[energyi] 17/7/2004 19:20

"Four Year Cycle": Next LOW due Oct.2006

..................

[energyi] 17/7/2004 18:56

"18 Month Cycle" / 78.5wk. CYCLE::

................

[energyi] 17/7/2004 15:38

55d. CYCLE: "Two Month Cycle" Another Look


..............

Big Picture:

[energyi] 17/7/2004 15:01

55d. CYCLE:
16th July (+/- 5 trading days): LOW expected.
Followed by an initial SHARP Rally,
then sideways action for perhaps 9-10 trading days into early August

Chart:


Labor Day LOW:
Hurley expects to see May lows tested: high 9000's
or maybe 9300

[energyi] 17/7/2004 14:58

Note Inversion..
Important PEAK in the Stock market: 27-Mar.2000,
came at the time normally scheduled for Cycle Low

[energyi] 17/7/2004 14:44

CYCLES,
78 Week / 18 Month Cycle DOMINATES the Market, says Stan Harley

In each 78wk Cycle, are about 6-8 Shorter 55d/2-3 Month Cycles:
"2-3 Month Cycle" / 10 Weeks / 55days CYCLE::

...............

"18 Month Cycle" / 78.5wk. CYCLE: Next Low due Sep.2004

................

"Four Year Cycle": Next LOW due Oct.2006

..................

- - - - -
LOGIC, as explained by Stan Hurley:
Numerology: Fibonacci numbers: 26, 34, 42, 55 & the number 9
Dominant cycle: 78.5 weeks
(Ave.of the Fibos= 39.25wks x 2)



Next Bottom: around Labor Day: "Flat to down" until then
Buyiing opportunity then: 10-15% move possible, off that low

Upclose, the CURRENT Situation:
Low : Friday.July 17th: +/-4-5 trading days: Then Moving UP.
Expect: 10 trading days sideways/up
Then, around Aug.1st, the Downtrend to resume
Next 55 trading day cycle, bottoms late August/early Sept.

- - -
IDEALISED Cycles (Decision Point): 9 mos. is Half 18 mos./78 wks


Long Term SPX with MA's


= = = = =

LINKS:
BROADCAST........:
Harley's Site... :
%Advisers Bullish:
Cycle Threads....: : :
18MO Website (WS):