Bank Of Ireland Share Discussion Threads

[mark88man] 26/5/2014 17:03

willjam - hxxp://www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk/x/bondchart.html?id=3015&stash=F64348A8&groupid=11

[cricklewood] 24/5/2014 07:28

The forthcoming ECB stress tests are unlikely to cause any major problems for Irish banks, according to NUIG economics lecturer and former government adviser Alan Ahearne.

The stress tests parameters, which were released last month, are similar in scope to the prudential assessment capital review conducted by the Central Bank in March 2011, said Mr Ahearne. At the time the banks were sufficiently well capitalised to withstand the worse case scenario outlined in that assessment.

"This would suggest that the banks are unlikely to need huge amounts of new capital on this occasion," said Mr Ahearne at the RaboDirect investor seminar in Cork.

The stress tests are part of the ECB's comprehensive assessment of the eurozone banking system over the course of this year. Any banks that fail will be forced to raise new capital.

UCD economist Morgan Kelly caused a storm in early March when he claimed there was a huge quantum of bad SME debt sitting on the balance sheets of the banks.

Consequently, the stress tests would act as a catalyst for the banks to call in this debt and presage a wave of foreclosures across the SME sector.

The Central Bank released a research paper last Friday which showed the SME debt position was much more benign than had been expected.

Mr Ahearne believes the SME debt problem will not cause the economic crisis to flare up again. "I didn't agree with his [Morgan Kelly's] argument then and I still don't see the logic of it. Yes there is lots of SME debt, but why would the ECB force the banks to close down businesses. I don't see the logic in that."

Mr Ahearne joined NUIG in 2005 following a seven-year stint at the US Federal Reserve. In 2009, he took a two-year sabbatical from NUIG to act as a special adviser to Brian Lenihan.

He believes the Government should keep up its efforts to secure a recapitalisation of the banking system. However, the chances of a successful resolution to these negotiations are remote as long as the economy is recovering.

However, if deflation sets in and Ireland's debt position becomes unmanageable, in that scenario, there could be a deal on debt, he said.

The focus should be on making the domestic banking sector as profitable as possible so that when AIB and Permanent TSB are returned to the private fold, there is maximum return for the Government.

He does not expect any official EU assistance for the banks in a possible grand solution for the near €50bn in tracker mortgages sitting on their balance sheets.

Overall, the prospects for the Irish economy hinge on the future of the eurozone.

What is needed is a bout of inflation and a stimulus package for the periphery in the form of quantitative easing from the ECB.

[willjam] 23/5/2014 12:59

MoneyHedge
I dont understand your post
"BOI 13.375% going to 185"

[cricklewood] 22/5/2014 17:16

22/05/2014 15:58 UKREG Bank of Ireland(Governor&Co) Notification of Significant Shareholding
22/05/2014 15:58 UKREG Bank of Ireland(Governor&Co) Notification of Significant Shareholding
22/05/2014 15:57 UKREG Bank of Ireland(Governor&Co) Notification of Significant Shareholding

[montyhedge] 17/5/2014 18:41

Ireland debt upgraded by Moody's.
That's means more funds can buy their debt.
BOI 13.375% going to 185.

[cricklewood] 17/5/2014 06:25

hxxp://www.independent.ie/world-news/moodys-upgrades-irelands-debt-30281620.html







Updated 17 May 2014 05:37 AM

Moody's Investors Services says it has upgraded Ireland's credit rating by two notches.

The US ratings service says Ireland's economy has picked up momentum in the past few months and should grow considerably faster than the average among countries using the euro currency.

It says Ireland's improving real estate market has also significantly reduced the government's contingent liabilities.

It raised Ireland's rating further into investment grade to Baa1 from Baa3 late yesterday.

Ireland had to be rescued by an international bailout after it faced economic ruin in 2010, when the cost of a bank-rescue program destroyed its ability to borrow at affordable rates.

But it has since regained its financial independence and repaired its fiscal reputation by exceeding a series of deficit-cutting targets and avoiding both labour unrest and protracted recession.

[ant15] 15/5/2014 21:52

Still watching but I believe we might well see this go sub 2 before it starts to pick up.

[deckav] 15/5/2014 11:59

Worth a watch.. hxxp://youtu.be/5Sa-T9nOxIk (replace the hxxp with http)

Just jumped on board @ 25c. In for the long term..

Good luck all and keep your nerve !

[cricklewood] 14/5/2014 17:52

Whats gone wrong here ??

[kemorkid] 14/5/2014 09:48

Another down day-any views.
Doing my head in.....

[lbo] 08/5/2014 09:14

Questions over the degree of support that the Government will lend to banks were key to Standard and Poor's (S&P) decision to downgrade Bank of Ireland

[cricklewood] 30/4/2014 18:48

Bank shares rise as investors bet new stress tests won't hurt too much


hxxp://www.independent.ie/business/irish/bank-shares-rise-as-investors-bet-new-stress-tests-wont-hurt-too-much-30229883.html

[boldtrader] 26/4/2014 08:58

Thanks for keeping us in the loop cricklewood,heres hoping the share price makes abit of a turnaround, Hindsight is a wonderful thing but like afew here got carried away and held on the slide!! Oh well. Cheers.

[cricklewood] 26/4/2014 07:47

Government rubber-stamps 'disgraceful' €843,000 salary for Bank of Ireland chief Richie Boucher

hxxp://www.independent.ie/business/irish/government-rubberstamps-disgraceful-843000-salary-for-bank-of-ireland-chief-richie-boucher-30219725.html

[kemorkid] 16/4/2014 09:49

Irish Financial Sector Outlook
Irish financial assets outperformed over the last year but we believe that the convergence story has more to run and so the outlook for bank credit spreads remains positive. We like BKIR credit across the capital structure, and also have a BUY rating on AIB credit, while PTSB issuance is likely to be limited pending approval of the EU restructuring plan. On the equity side, we have a BUY recommendation on BKIR and FBD, but a current SELL recommendation on AIB and PTSB, pending clarification on capital structure, etc.

Macroeconomic Backdrop
The Irish financial sector is well placed to benefit from the recovery in domestic demand. While the proportion of non-performing loans remains uncomfortably high, we believe that they have peaked and that provisioning is adequate. We are also encouraged that the banks are making real efforts to clean up their loan books, aided by important legislative changes, and the Central Bank of Ireland's quantitative targets for restructuring. Residential and commercial property values have rebounded from lows, although very Dublin-centric in these early stages of recovery, boosting the collateral values of banks' portfolios.

Bank Profitability and Capitalisation
Capital levels are comfortable heading into the ECB stress tests later this year. BKIR reported a CET1 ratio of 12.3% at 31st December 2013 (on a 1st January 2014 Basel III transitional basis), with PTSB at 13.4% and AIB higher still at 15%. BKIR is generating capital again in early 2014, and AIB should follow by year-end, but PTSB will continue to use capital until 2017 on our projections. AIB is expected to undertake substantial reform of its capital structure, beginning with full conversion of the €3.5 billion of preference shares into ordinary equity, repurchase of the €1.6 billion of 10% July 2016 contingent convertible notes ("CoCos") and re-nominalisation of its equity, ahead of a likely initial sale of a small stake of the government's 99.8% shareholding in early 2015. We do not see the government being in a position to sell any of its 99.2% stake in PTSB for some years.

Credit Outlook
We continue to like BKIR across the capital structure, favouring a barbell approach, buying covered bonds and the preference shares or contingent convertible notes ("CoCos") relative to senior unsecured debt. For choice, we think AIBMB covered bonds offer an attractive pick-up relative to the BOIMB issues, and we believe any fresh senior issuance will be well received. PTSB's Fastnet 9 RMBS issue last November was the first such issue since 2007, but other issuance options appear closed off pending EU approval of the restructuring plan.

Equity Outlook
We continue to like BKIR equity and have a BUY rating (TP €0.35) but AIB's limited free float is vastly overpriced and so we have a SELL rating (TP €0.025) and we also have a sell rating on PTSB (TP €0.07).

Insurance as Alternative Play
Insurer FBD is another interesting play as insurable risk is strongly correlated with domestic demand growth, and there are also emerging signs of the commencement of a premium hardening cycle after many years of falling rates. Moreover, FBD has a strong competitive edge, having grown premium in 2013 when the industry continued to shrink, reaching the highest ever market share of 13.4%, and all this with a conservative and incremental approach to new growth channels. We have a BUY rating on FBD (TP €21.98).


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[ant15] 16/4/2014 06:00

Cricklewood a very similar position for me. I decided to sell down yesterday and will wait to see if this goes down further before returning Blackrock selling down is causing this to drop further and by all accounts they might well have some more to dispose of however below 3% they don't have to report so we must wait and see. I fear the large disposals have acted as a bit of a catalyst here.

[pearcy2] 15/4/2014 18:40

fwiw - I'm not invested here, but, I'd look for a bounce off the 200DMA as a sign all is well for the long term trend here. Break below that could be troublesome, but a bounce would be fine if your looking long term and even a signal to buy more... GLA

[cricklewood] 15/4/2014 17:29

I was £13K in profit when it hit 38c what a downer FFS.

[t 34] 10/4/2014 18:11

why down today ???

[red army] 10/4/2014 16:25

MACD turned back down BUT still positive at the moment.

[937huff26] 10/4/2014 16:01

MACD wrong then

[red army] 02/4/2014 09:25

MACD chart signal turning positive and indicating a turn up in price.

[docdave2] 01/4/2014 11:22

Is there anything incorrect about what he said??? Our country is in billions of debt, the only way out of this mess is to work our way out of it and creating 10,000 jobs per year doesn't cure the unemployment rate of 400,000!!We can't buy our way out of this one people!!!

[hvs] 01/4/2014 10:42

Nah,

The teachers are on STRIKE , very very RED.

And they wants tax payers MONEY for FREE