Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Bahamas Petrol LSE:BPC London Ordinary Share IM00B3NTV894 ORD 0.002P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.55p -8.59% 5.85p 4,766,886 08:44:07
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
5.70p 6.00p 6.25p 5.85p 6.25p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers -2.38 -0.18 92.0

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Date Time Title Posts
16/8/201811:14BPC Ltd24,353
02/8/201802:48BPC and Beyond2
10/5/201810:53L2 - Observations, comments and screenshots52
16/2/201804:43NEW BPC (abuse free)8,311
16/2/201804:41Bahamas Petroleum Company PLC2,794

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Bahamas Daily Update: Bahamas Petrol is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker BPC. The last closing price for Bahamas was 6.40p.
Bahamas Petrol has a 4 week average price of 4.90p and a 12 week average price of 2.63p.
The 1 year high share price is 7.80p while the 1 year low share price is currently 0.48p.
There are currently 1,572,719,096 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 12,322,463 shares. The market capitalisation of Bahamas Petrol is £92,004,067.12.
pro_s2009: To try to estimate the deal that BPC may (or may not) get I have gone through the following scenario : I am the CEO with 70 million shares. Whats best for me ? Priority 1 : Keep my share entitlement intact. Priority 2 : Maximize the potential share price going forward. So I should get a very good deal for BPC which will leave it strong enough to require no further cash calls until drilling is finished whilst at the same time getting as many drills done as possible. I should ensure that BPC is left with enough cash at end of drilling to be in a strong position to either sell the discoveries at a good price, or raise money to commercialize them at a good price. No firesale, no panic fund raising. I should get as many of the top targets drilled as possible so as to maximize the potential ahead of selling the finds or raising money for commercial development. A/ Major offers BPC retain 30% of the licenses and gets 1 free carry drill (to testing) and 100 million cash for back costs. Not really doing my 70 million shares the best over the long term. If 1st well fails then money is tight for a further drill. B/ Major offers BPC retain 30% of the licenses and gets 2 free carry drills (to testing) and 60 million cash for back costs. Better, now got 2 chances to really multi bag my shares. Downside only 2 chances and what happens if other area's are better and bigger. C/ Major offers BPC retain 30% of the licenses and gets 3 free carry drills (to testing) and 30 million cash for back costs. Probably be happy with that. BPC has enough cash to see it through to the end of the three drills and be strong enough not to be pushed around when the time comes to sell the finds or plan for commercialization. For me this gives the maximum potential uplift to my shareholding. Every 1p on the share price earns me 700K GBP, and so with 3 drills and BPC ending the 3 drills still with loads of cash and able to sell or plan to develop, my shares will do very well. So taking that into account my expectation of a deal, if it happens, will be all the 3's. BPC retain 30% of the licenses and Major takes over 70% and becomes operator. BPC get 30 million in back costs in cash. BPC get 3 free carried wells drilled (free to BPC until final completion and any testing). That above will give the biggest share price appreciation and so rewards for all shareholders who hold through to drilling. Once drilling is near given the massive potential and already proven oil system there (from drills decades ago) one would expect the BPC share price to be around 70p (just like the Falkland oilers market caps as drilling started were near to a billion) - however Bahamas is bigger and better in terms of size of potential and lower in terms of risk of finding oil as thats proven already in the area. I have top sliced once already (enough so that I can sell all the remaining BPC I have at 0.5p and come out with zero profit or loss) and have now decided no further top slicing in the event of a deal - just add on dips (after deal) and hold through to drilling next year (or late this year even depending on the Majors accessibility to rigs and EA approval).
easybrent: This is pure speculation, but my view is that the changes to the CEO contractual terms are related to a requirement from current or potential new investors in BPC. BPC CEO base salary of $1m per year is well above what the peers make in the micro-small cap E&P on AIM. The CEO has agreed in the past to deferred 90% of his compensation since 2016, which make it a bit difficult to compare his salary with other peers. The move to deferred 90% of the salary and only receive it if BPC manages to get a farm-out deal done might have been very smart decision by the CEO as the share part of the deferred compensation is based on new shares valued at the average price for each month. Considering that the stock has been around 1p for a long time, the CEO would get a lot of shares well below the current share price if the company manages to secure a farm-in partner. The big question is today, why are these changes being implemented now? I very much doubt that the secret international oil company BPC is negotiating with for a farm-in would make such a requirement as they won’t be paying the CEO salary. In my view, I think it's much more likely that BPC may be close to secure a farm-in and at the same time raise additional capital. The investors in the new equity raise could easily have made this request to adjust BPC CEO salary to a more average level for the peer group. The new investor might not be so happy to pay for the deferred cash component while letting the CEO keep the deferred share is a fairer compromise. I guess some people following BPC would now argue why would BPC raise cash if they manage to get a farm-in partner. I think there are several reasons why BPC would take the opportunity to raise cash if they get a farm-out deal done. 1) The company will still have SG&A cost which almost never is covered by a farm-in partner, the SG&A cost would increase if the company would begin to drill a well or several wells, 2) BPC farm-in partner might only be interested in paying for one well initially and in this case BPC might have to fill the bank account when they can. 3) BPC might only farm-out one block and still need cash for work on the other blocks. In conclusion, I think it's likely that BPC will get a farm-out deal done, but it will be followed by a significant capital raise, where the cornerstone investor in the placing would have required to adjust the CEO terms. The risk/chance for a capital raise theory is supported by BPC decision to hire Macquarie as their advisor weeks after they announced that they were in exclusive talks with a potential partner. Do I think the stock is a buy here? No, the new investor would most likely put in the capital at much lower price than the current 5.6p. Which wouldn’t be that big of a problem for the CEO and the other directors as they are receiving deferred shares mainly around 0.8-1.5p per share. hxxps://
pro_s2009: The mistake many make is to think these licenses are some crackpot Mongolian ones, or Banana Republic African ones. The Bahamas licenses are wonderfully attractive, that were worth peanuts as the government were against drilling. This is why a minnow company picked them up whilst Majors were focused on other areas. They remained near worthless whilst the government position was against drilling. BPC spent a lot of money and time and effort proving up the potential, which remained worthless. Now it has worth with the government position changed - and now you have serious interest. BPC are not going to give away all that time and effort and money spent in the years the licenses were worthless. The time and money and effort was the investment........the seed........waiting for the future turn of events to grow the seed into a tree. The time has come. It is amazing that some people cannot see that a major oil company spending 250K a month to lock out all the competition is not something quite astounding. How many times have you seen it before ? For those who do not know the oil business, the Bahamas license area's are expected to yield lots and lots of oil. Oil potential which was until the recent government position change, pretty worthless and reflected in the BPC share price.
urigem: Some great posts and write ups over the weekendSinking in now how forgotten BPC is, i don't know about you lot - but I expecting a big week for the BPC share price ???
brettmo: Goldman Sachs’ target for BPC was 16p in June 2013: At the time, they recorded this data for BPC:  Share price 4p  12 month target 16p  Market capitalisation June 2013 US$81 million. They wrote: "We increase our valuation to account for the announcement of March 10 by the Government of The Bahamas to grant permission for exploration drilling ahead of any referendum. We view this as a positive for BPC and as such reduce our political risking of the stock; we now model an 80% chance of political success versus 60% previously. BPC anticipates drilling preparations will take a year to complete based on the existing FEED work. We therefore expect an exploration well to be drilled, pending a farmout from 2014 onwards, and push back our assumed sanction date for any potential discovery by a year to account for the pre-drill work required. We continued to model a farm-out for BPC, assuming the company retains a 40% stake in the exploration prospect in return for a carry on its portion of the well cost and back costs." COMMENT - The Negatives - Since then, ignoring nearly 5 years time-lag in getting here, there have been these main changes: • Oil Price down 25% from $102 to $75. • Circa 60m shares for the board, 260m placed last year • Cautionary sounds regarding the reduced need for oil in the mid-to-longer term due to Clean Energy sentiment. - The Positives • Majors now flexing muscles again in the exploration sector as the cash-flow from production looks to be underpinned by future prices well above (for example) Shell’s bottom-line of $50 for exploration. • The previous Govt passed the long-delayed Regulations. • BPC’s cost of drills have been calculated as economic even if the oil price fell below $30 per barrel and if the quantity were only about 2 billion barrels as against the Moyes Report figure of 28 billion – see below. • The current Bahamas Government is seemingly pro-oil (viz -the Shell and Oban announcements) and by its own public comments and in Parliament, has been preparing the electorate to the inevitability of the need to explore because of the dire economic situation. • The Bahamas economy is under siege this year because of its tax haven status and international pressure for it to change its laws this year– making it less attractive as an international business centre. • 3-D seismic and other positive results have become available. • Adjacent (relatively in oil-mapping terms) ) drills have succeeded or have been assessed positive except for the Russian foray in Cuban waters (which did not fail because of lack of oil). • Due to cost-savings, Oil-Majors are seemingly keener on exploration closer to hubs and BPC fits in admirably. • The Moyes Report of December 2017 not only added credibility to BPC’s own data-room material but boosted the potential volume of oil to 28 billion barrels against vague suggestions of a likelihood of low billions back in 2013. Taking a round number like 4 billion barrels back in 2013 , the resource could now be SEVEN TIMES GREATER. • Here is what oil-expert Malcy wrote of the Moyes Report: “Moyes - calculate ‘aggregate mean volumetrics assessed for the key structures in BPC’s southern licences is a STOIIP of 8.3 billion barrels, with an upside of up to 28 billion barrels STOIIP’. In addition they give a POS of 25-35% which is extremely positive. Applying their recovery factor of 20-40% they get a EUR of 1.66-3.3bn mean and up to 11bn barrels of upside.” • In March 2018, Simon Potter signed an extension to his own contract at 10% of the contractual amount in return for being rewarded by shares – a strong pointer as to what he expected was likely to happen – or what? • All the highest global standards of Environmental Impact have been met in BPC’s approach. • The Environmental Impact Application was lodged on April 2018. • The 3rd May 2018 announcement of a Confidential and Exclusivity agreement with an un-named oil major materialised with payment of $250,000 per month for 3 months plus the chance of extension for up to a further 3 months at the same rate. This helps improve (somewhat) the company’s tight financial position. Presumably, the suitor is concerned that there are other majors circling – consistent with BPC’s various announcements this past year (and more) of activity the details of which they were and are not able to divulge. • On 4th May 2018, Simon Potter gave an extensive and upbeat interview to the Tribune (a Bahamas newspaper.) but rightly pointed out that: "it's not a deal until it's done." His reported comments read much more positively for the prospects of a deal with the un-named major than had the cautious RNS announcement.  He described the arrangement as being with a “highly respected major international oil company.”  He regarded the new agreement as "a huge step forward."  He mentioned that the speed of renewed interest in the company's licences suggested that the company's prospects of success (in drilling) and the potential quantity of commercially extractable oil were among the industry's best.  He added: "These companies don't spend money if they don't have to. To commit to us in this way, and seek a commercial arrangement, is obviously very positive."  He also emphasised the short-term economic benefit to the Bahamas: “The exploration will last for 90 days and cost up to $100 million, a considerable proportion of which will be spent locally in-country." • Reaction to the interview was quite muted. There were only a few brief comments and not all negative – demonstrating the limited (and much reduced?) hostility to the news of drilling drawing closer. • It was the present political party, now in Government, that granted the licences to BPC at the very outset and it has demonstrated more support than did the previous Government who were thrashed in the 2017 election. Although that previous Govt was not hostile to BPC, it was slow-moving and tainted by a (regretted and regrettable) seeming commitment to hold a referendum – although its result would not have been binding anyway (see what happened with their Referendum on Gambling). Current Position • Current share price after the 3rd May announcement – a rise to just 3p approx.!! • Surely some analysts including Goldman Sachs should be revaluing the company. The rise to 3p was welcome but still seems to bear no resemblance to the astonishing reality of the current factual matrix. There will be many who bought these shares at up to 24 pence when the factual matrix was far more speculative. • Are we now worth a mere 16p ….. or much more now and anyway long before news of a deal being signed?
tidy 2: Red Hot Penny Shares TipThe Biggest Thing in the Oil Business Date 18/09/2008 Penny Sleuth - The Penny Shares Expert | By Tom Bulford Alan Burns knows what it is like to be on an off-shore drilling rig during a hurricane. 'It's the noise', he explained. 'That's what you don't expect.' But the prospect of finding himself in this situation again does not deter him. 'Oil rigs today are safe,' he assured me. 'The only ones that have been damaged in the Gulf of Mexico were either too old or so new that they had not been properly secured.' In any case the hurricane season in the Gulf is more severe than afflicts the Bahamas and it is here that Burns has identified 'the biggest thing I have seen in my life in the oil business.' Attractions, attractions, attractions... That is something coming from this sixty-seven year old Aussie who banked a fortune when Hardman Resources, the oil company that he founded, was bought by Tullow in 2006 for £650m. Today he does not mind admitting that he would rather spend his time looking for oil in a place where it is pleasant to live, but still it is clear that he set up his Bahamas vehicle, BPC, for other reasons than golf courses, beaches and fish dinners overlooking the warm Atlantic water. He reckons that there could be large reserves of oil and gas under that water and is determined to find out. Last month BPC was reversed into the AIM quoted Falkland Gold and Minerals after the latter concluded that further exploration for metals in those islands was a waste of time, and three weeks ago shares of BPC started trading. The share price now stands at 5p, valuing BPC at £40m, and this has all the makings of a share that will be actively traded and a favourite of the message boards. But for a company at BPC's stage £40m is an ambitious valuation, and I have been looking at the listing prospectus to see whether this can really be justified. The attractions here are the size of the license areas, their location, and the political regime of the Bahamas, where of course there is a Governor General appointed by the Queen and a judicial system based on English common law. Over the next five years BPC must pay $2.44m for the rental of its prospecting licenses, and another $1.35m for work obligations. Beyond that no tax is payable but in the event of BPC producing oil it would have to pay royalties to the Government at 12.5% or 25% for an oil production rate of more than 350,000 barrels per day. If that ever happens then BPC's shareholders will not mind at all paying the Government such a levy, and such are the size of the license areas that production of this quantity is at least conceivable. The search for data BPC has five license areas covering a total of 15,676 sq kms and it has spent the last few years gathering all the available data. This has not been easy, and Burns told me that documents were retrieved from
lithological heterogeneities: Although I have held BPC for far longer than I care to remember I started buying again after reading the 02 OCT 17 article below. I know that BPC have been in advanced talks for what seems like forever, but I still think this is just too big to fail and too cheap. The 11 JAN 18 article was just the icing on the cake for me. BPC - 09 FEB 2018 Shares in Issue...1,510,479,096 Share price (mid)...1.05p Mkt Cap...£17m 02 OCT 2017 Oil Explorer's Boost For 'Faster' Farm-In Partner Conclusion HTtp:// 1...five groups having completed or scheduled visits to conduct due diligence on its database during the 2017 second half. 2...renewed interest in BPC's Bahamian licenses had been given further impetus by a recent oil discovery off Guyana and a successful offshore licensing round for acreage off Mexico's Gulf coast. 3...many potential joint venture partners had "undertaken substantial technical and commercial due diligence" on seismic and other seabed data indicating the likelihood of finding commercial quantities of oil in Bahamian waters. 4..."This has included executing several new Non-Disclosure Agreements with parties interested in reviewing the investment opportunity, five new parties undertaking or scheduling due diligence visits to assess the company's technical database, and commencement of dialogue with various industry intermediaries to broaden the scope and reach of the company's efforts." 5..."At the same time, discussions have continued with those parties that had already undertaken substantial technical and commercial due diligence our hope being to progress one or more party to the next stage of the process (non-binding term sheets) in the next couple of months." 6... together with recent successful exploration licensing rounds, especially in the Mexican Gulf, had renewed exploration enthusiasm worldwide and, particularly, in the Caribbean. 7..."The immediate focus of the new government is to address a number of urgent issues facing the nation," BPC said. "A current year fiscal deficit of over $600 million; $7 billion in existing government debt , rated at junk level by two out of the three major rating agencies 8...BPC was "encouraged by the nature of the talks" held with the Minnis administration to-date. 11 JAN 2018 Oil Explorer's Success Prospects 'Four Times' Better Than Average HTtp:// 1...independent experts Moyes & Co who confirmed its chances of success are at least four times' higher than the industry average. 2..."probability of success" for each of the seabed oil sources it is targeting as between 25 per cent to 35 per cent 3...this far exceeded the oil industry's typical 5-10 per cent average 4... Moyes & Co says economically recoverable oil between a mean of 8.3 billion barrels to "an upside" of 28 billion barrels (BPC Mkt Cap just £17m!) 5...Moyes & Co say the project can be economically viable with a field of just 200 million barrels. 6..."Applying a recovery factor in the range of 20 per cent to 40 per cent to the Moyes [economically recoverable] volumes would result in an unrisked Estimated Ultimate Recoverable (EUR) in the range of 1.6 billion to 3.3 billion barrels (mean), and up to 11 billion barrels (upside)."(BPC Mkt Cap just £17m!) 7...on a normal basis the probability of geological success is in the 1/10 and 1/20 range. BPC is 1/4, 1/3." 8...$100 million in research, data gathering and seismic testing had paid off in the Moyes & Co evaluation (over 4x current BPC Mkt Cap!) 9... The company raised an additional $3.5 million in cash, via a share placement, in June-July 2017 to ensure it has the necessary financial resources to cover operations for the next 12 months. 10..BPC also has the advantage of a significant, decade-long 'head start'. 01 FEB 2018 Goldman Says Oil to Surpass $80 in 2018 HTtps:// that had already undertaken substantial technical and commercial due diligence *Goldman sees three-month forecast higher to $75 on strong demand *Goldman sees Brent crude reaching $82.50 a barrel in six months *Morgan Stanley recently said Brent will reach $75 a barrel this year *JPMorgan said it could rise to near $78 as oil markets tighten more rapidly than expected. Although there are only around 6 weeks left until the BPC license to drill elapses i believe (hope) that BPC will renew the license for another 12 months and complete the farm-in bearing in mind that 5 NEW parties have now completed due diligence" in addition to parties that had ALREADY undertaken substantial technical and commercial due diligence" with oil forecast to increase to over $80/barrel in 2018 and big oil discoveries made relatively close by. The current BPC Mkt Cap is just £17m for a potential 8.3 billion to 28 billion barrels of oil and they have spent more than 4x the current £17m Mkt Cap alone in research, data gathering and seismic testing....AND THE BAHAMAS ARE NOW $7 BILLION IN DEBT and rated at junk level by two out of the three major rating agencies !. For these reasons I still believe we will secure another 12 month extension and with all the huge interest from not only the existing companies who have been to the BPC data room, another 5 NEW companies have now visited as well and once the extension is secured I think BPC will complete a farm-in and at a £17m Mkt Cap for up to 28 billion barrels I think BPC could still be the star oil stock this year,even though our dealing hand has been drastically reduced due to the cash only being enough to see us through 2018 to the farm-in. Fingers crossed anyway.
linton78: Whoopy - still here and following this one closely. I’ve done all my buying now, agree with you the chart looks good for the next leg up sometime over the next week. Currently having a few Red Stripes in Jamaica... but can’t stop looking at BPC share price... sad !!
cyan: And only buy what you have researched yourselves and not on the advise of any well known pumper and dumper. Why did BPC share price shoot up recently? Could it be because the same SER lemmings bought; those who believed BMD's ramping . Following BMD and his sidekick CHRISOIL got SER holders where they are today. I suppose some made money out of the BPC spike!
lithological heterogeneities: ride the wave 127 Jan '17 - 13:49 - 8099 of 8099 "Also the price of oil has gone up since then ,so it becomes even more attractive to a major oil company for a farm in" ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 02 April, 2012 "The Group intends to raise funding through the placing of ordinary shares and farm-outs of its licences." BPC share price:11p. Cash: $35m. Price of Oil:$103. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 27 Jan 2017 BPC share price:1.8p. Cash:less than $1.5m. Price of Oil:$53. So almost 4 years of farm-out intentions with $35m in the Bank and a POO of $103 in April 2012. Now less than $1.5m in Bank with POO of $53 in Jan 2017. A reduction from a POO of $103 to $53 is NOT an increase in oil price and BPC had $35m in cash to negotiate from a position of strength back then. This is why so many investors lost faith.
Bahamas share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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