Bahamas Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[linton78] 25/4/2019 00:06

New discovery offshore GoM in a relatively unexplored area...




Interesting comments about capex and other tie back targets that are now bought back into play.

[the3for2] 24/4/2019 22:44

For the record I hold.

However I see this share being stifled by the fact that BPC are probably held back by the BG.

The BG would be want BPC to hold back in any announcement until they are in a position to sell oil exploration to the populous.

I would suggest that BOC (as before) have been asked to stall until that position can be satisfied.

I don’t for one minute think that this won’t happen it’s more a question of timing. And us LTH May have to wait longer then we thought.

Don’t shoot me down. I just think that we are at the mercy of a political decision rather than a commercial one

And sorry if the above doesn’t make sense but travelling back from a very good night in London !

[armatrading] 24/4/2019 21:04

Stewart4980, did you convert the dollar oil price figures into GBP/pence to work out the GBP share price??

[stewart4980] 24/4/2019 18:51

BigSi2,

My calculations were as follows - mean 8.3 Billion Barrels @ $1 in the ground = $8.3 Billion / 1.6 = £5.19 Billion / 1.571 Billion shares = £3.30 x 5% = 16.5p.


If the drill bit hits the take the price of oil say $60 profit ? its big.


IMHO. DYOR.

[armatrading] 24/4/2019 18:15

BigSi2, it's all just based on maths: the chance of success, and the amount of potential oil if drill is successful.

If we got a 20% share on farm-in, the share price could be between 143p and 572p...

[bigsi2] 24/4/2019 16:13

£1.40p on a 5% share2£BN MCAP !!! Cloud Cuckoo land chum

[martyn9] 24/4/2019 16:03

Yes stewart,that appears to be the case.

[stewart4980] 24/4/2019 15:58

Martyn9,

Yes fully agree has to be this year, I think it needs to be no later than June 2019, oh I see GS said the same, I missed that.

[globalspecialist] 24/4/2019 15:07

Loser Gism has gone quiet - must be that time of the month :) Now to business - If no farm in partner by end of June then kiss your investment goodbye - it will never happen and licenses will expire. If a farm in partner by end of June then a great summer and the stock at 15-20p. GL to all except the Jism woman

[linton78] 24/4/2019 15:03

I would agree with you Martyn... we just don’t know how close (or not) they are to signing up a major.

[martyn9] 24/4/2019 14:48

It's ok to guesstimate on share price relevant to percentages but without a jv announced this year,this has had it.imo

[linton78] 24/4/2019 14:28

stewart - yes, stuck in by the rail after being well placed early on. Only a small punt luckily!

[armatrading] 24/4/2019 14:26

Stewart4980,

Sorry for not including my calculations.

Yes indeed, those assumptions were what I'm basing those two prices/ranges on. 35p with a partner lined up for 5% share. 140p with a positive drill show, with real oil flowing.

I agree yes, around 10p to 20p maybe on partner announcement, depending on market sentiment.

I'd really like to know why the talks didn't progress. I'm hoping it was just because of the licences. Now they have been renewed, hopefully talks continue with same major, or a consortium. Consortium would explain the time it's taking, as the negotiations are bound to be more complex.

[stewart4980] 24/4/2019 14:17

Linton,

Not placed mate, hard luck

[linton78] 24/4/2019 13:59

The problem here has always been getting the farm in partner.

Market conditions and license clarity are now firmly in BPC's favor so I remain positive that BPC will drill within the time frame, however nothing at all can be taken for granted.

Regarding a call to the company, a well worded e-mail to them first requesting a call is probably the best way to go. I know the CFO has fielded quite a few calls this year with other shareholders.

PS - gone E/W on Bahamian Sunrise in the 2.10 :-)

[stewart4980] 24/4/2019 13:41

armatrading,

Exactly, I assume you mean with a partner and based on seismic etc 35p and with a positive drill and oil flowing 140p.

I would have thought assuming we get a partner then on announcement I think you would see 12p to 15p and as we move to drilling perhaps even some back costs up to 30p.With a successful drill I have no idea,140p, 280p the resource seems so large.

To be honest the size of the potential resource is so huge even a 1% increase over a 5% share would give us a huge amount of extra value. The only problem is that first drill and hitting the oil.


Sorry perhaps you will be valuing the potential oil of say 4B / 1.571B shares in issue /1.60 = 165p or of that ilk.

[armatrading] 24/4/2019 13:11

5% would value BPC around £4 billions, and give a share price of at least 35p, possibly up to 140p on a positive drill find.

[stewart4980] 24/4/2019 12:54

If you ring Simon Potter up does he answer? I would like to ask why we never get any updates and perhaps he could update the markets. I don't buy this "if there is no news he cannot say anything" comment.


What the hell has he been doing all this time, I know who is paying his salary and the other directors, US.

Just ridiculous how long this is taking, we are a small oil explorer either get it done or tell us we can't, even if we only get 5% its better than nothing where we have been for years. I thought perhaps 80 / 20 but I think lower now and not sure if we would get back costs, perhaps 50M and let the partner take first 50M out of first oil.

There job done

[gismo] 24/4/2019 09:20

Nice £14k buy just gone through

[dynamohum] 24/4/2019 08:56

The Backslappers punting again to recoup losses . . . . Outstanding ✊

[whoppy] 23/4/2019 15:52

Got a low weight Linton. Boom the Groom could be a danger. Both like Epsom.

[linton78] 23/4/2019 15:46

Thanks Whoppy - will take a look at that race tomorrow.

[whoppy] 23/4/2019 15:30

Bahamian Sunrise runs tomorrow at Epsom 2:10. Needs a bit of cut in the ground so if it rains and the going is gd/sft then worth an EW bet.