Bahamas Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[globalspecialist] 16/4/2019 14:20

Poor Linton - the 2p investors feeling is hurt. Cannot believe losers like him have heard of a gem like BPC. They will make money here purely on luck on being in the right trade as they have nothing between their ears except their nose :)

[globalspecialist] 16/4/2019 14:08

Jamesto2 - you should post your views even if wrong as this is not a forum for Bulls only. However losers like Gismo and Linton who have no idea how markets work think your views moves the stock. It does not - only fundamentals do but there are so many 2p novices like Gismo and the rest here.

[jungmana] 16/4/2019 14:08

Hopefully get to 5p area by the time farm in news lands. Good buys there

[globalspecialist] 16/4/2019 14:04

Straight to 20p on the news of farm in in my view

[gismo] 16/4/2019 13:56

Yes lets hope so Stewart, this has gone on and on a bit

[stewart4980] 16/4/2019 11:43

Whilst I am very happy to hold as success here would be life changing for me and I would think many others. I cannot understand why this company and as MD Simon Potter can not update us on what is happening, their communication skills are very poor.

Based on the fact that us shareholders pay the directors by placings to keep it going it beggars belief why we are not MUCH better informed,it really is poor and needs to change, surprised this was not brought up at the last AGM, I assume the next one will be in the IOM so being in Cumbria I may just go.

Let's hope by then a partner will be announced and it's all perfect.

[dynamohum] 16/4/2019 11:38

From Bloomberg . . . . . . I can hear you crying . . . .

[dynamohum] 16/4/2019 10:46

9 years of highly significant periods .. . . .
I suppose one more wont matter to much . . .
Visitor numbers and tourism are going great guns , apparently Potter is fronting a campaign for the gov of the laid back , tax free lifestyle under a blue sky and pristine waters that he enjoys so much he has to raise more money until he gets his scuba diving licence . . . . .

[linton78] 16/4/2019 10:45

The Case For $100 Oil

The odds of an oil price spike this year are much higher than the prevailing consensus in the market, according to a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The oil market has been tightening rapidly this year, due to OPEC+ cuts taking supply off of the market, outages in Iran and Venezuela, and a slowdown in U.S. shale. But forthcoming regulations from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) could provide an additional jolt, particularly as global inventories decline against the backdrop of a tightening market.

“Now, with distillate inventories at the low end of the range, we see an analogy to 2007/08 when the world run out of diesel refining capacity,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note on April 12. “Back then, as Saudi Arabia lifted heavy crude production to meet rising global demand for distillates, diesel-to-bunker fuel spreads blew out and so did light-heavy crude spreads. A similar situation could develop over the coming months as ship owners temporarily up their distillate burn to transition out of high sulphur into ultra low sulpur bunker fuel due to the new IMO2020 rules.”

There are important differences between today and the price spike of 2008, Bank of America notes, including greater spare capacity in 2019, an additional 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) of refining capacity set to come online, and the expectation that U.S. shale could quickly add supply in the event of higher oil prices. “Still, unlike the gradual tightening in diesel markets of 2007/08, the world faces a major one-off jump in distillate demand,” Bank of America argues, referring to worldwide regulations on marine fuels set to take effect at the start of 2020.

The rules lower the limit of sulfur concentration in marine fuels from 3.5 percent to just 0.5 percent, which will force shipowners to switch away from heavy fuel oils. Instead, the alternatives include scrubbing technology and a greater use of low-sulfur fuels, including distillates.

Bank of America says that the regulations could push up distillate demand by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year, which comes on top of the 0.5 mb/d annual trend growth rate, and also on top of the cyclical high during winter. Higher distillate demand could push up crude oil prices as refiners race to turn crude into distillates. “About 60% of the average crude barrel can be turned into distillate with the right refining toolkit. But that figure drops below 50% for heavy oil, potentially curbing supply,” Bank of America wrote.

The bottom line is that there is a chance that oil prices rise much higher this year. “In our view, the risk of a Brent crude oil price spike is significantly higher than options markets suggest,” Bank of America warned.

There are plenty of factors that could head off a price spike, including higher U.S. shale production, an economic slowdown, a decision by OPEC+ to abandon the cuts, a decision by the U.S. to extend waivers on Iran sanctions, or a release of oil from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve, just to name a few. “However, as shippers transition to IMO2020, a cyclical upturn led by trade combined with a cold winter could result in the largest ever surge in distillate demand. If we add a weaker dollar to the mix, we have all the ingredients for a spike in crude oil prices,” Bank of America said.

The investment bank was skeptical that U.S. shale could fill the gap, at least in the short run. Capital discipline has already led to a slowdown, and the industry could need higher prices for longer-dated futures in order to really incentivize new drilling. In any event, it will also take time for the industry to respond, which means that “rising oil prices today will only begin to affect oil production in 4Q19 and 2020,” the bank noted. As such, while U.S. shale could add new supply and keep global oil prices in check, it may arrive a little late to avoid a price spike.

Bank of America said that the Brent options market only implies a 2 percent chance that Brent spikes to $100 per barrel. The bank says everyone might be underestimating these odds. The “massive surge in distillate demand” later this year could “potentially push oil prices above $100 per barrel,” the bank concluded.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

[jack4691] 16/4/2019 10:36

Her Favourite Number is 3 - we all know WHY !!! Her 'Gang' over on the UKOG bb are providing us with enough laughs, do we need more here? YES, we do, with all this gloomy news. 😂😂😂🤣9315;🤣

[jungmana] 16/4/2019 10:32

Bill Schrader, non-executive Chairman commented:

"We are entering a highly significant period for BPC, having recently been granted an extension to the term of our exploration licences to the end of 2020 and secured the funding necessary to meet the Company's working capital needs whilst we secure a deal to progress our first exploration well. I am delighted at Simon's continued commitment to the project which provides clarity and continuity of leadership as we work with potential partners to get an exploration well funded and drilled."

[whoppy] 16/4/2019 10:24

One has to believe the farmout talks will reveal something. So many majors looking to get back into offshore and big targets.

[jungmana] 16/4/2019 10:14

First target 3.5p. Where we were just 6 weeks back.News not far off imo

[gismo] 16/4/2019 09:59

Well my favourite number is 3 whoppy :-))

[whoppy] 16/4/2019 09:53

2p looks an interesting price in so far as a round number.

[gismo] 16/4/2019 09:49

Morning Cinoib, yep my others are down too.

[cinoib] 16/4/2019 09:41

Looks like we could finish blue by close as is moving back up again. Wold be nice as all my other stock is in possertive territory today

[whoppy] 16/4/2019 09:38

Feels about right for news, imo.

[jungmana] 16/4/2019 09:34

Going blue soon :-)

[dynamohum] 16/4/2019 09:31

Whopper . . .👍

[whoppy] 16/4/2019 09:31

Haha..I would forgo chocolate for the rest of the year.