Avon Protection Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 14/10/2011 09:19

Someone has a sore head today, I imagine!

[mafia music] 13/10/2011 23:00

ust issued a trading statement saying current year's figures will come in at the top end of expectations.

what is that then?

[mafia music] 13/10/2011 22:45

sorry im wrong im just taking a look at the statement now. I was looking at the advfn figures which are clearly wrong

[jeffian] 13/10/2011 22:38

mm,

What on earth are you on?

You quote the 2010 revenue figure and the H111 profit figure! They actually made PBT of £7.1m last year and have just issued a trading statement saying current year's figures will come in at the top end of expectations. That'll be around 25.5p/share rising to around 29p/share next year (i.e 2012 p/e ratio around 10x). Expensive?

Debt of £43m? This from the recent trading statement:- "Net debt at year end was £11.9m, lower than current market expectations as a result of the accelerated collection of certain receivables."

I'll have what you're drinking.

[mafia music] 13/10/2011 22:12

yeah but on the figures about they done look too health. Revenue was 117m and out of that profit for the period was 3.1m...massive difference between the two

i like the products the company sells. shame i didn't notice this share earlier. but with profits of 3.1 x 15 gives 46.5m and the market cap is 91m?? so its a bit expensive

what is the debt? 43mill so that is high too considering profits are 3.1 and market cap is 91m


can anyone tell me what future potential they see this share having. growth there expecting to see

[mafia music] 13/10/2011 14:40

Key Dates:
- Final results: 23-Nov-2011
- Year End: 30-Sep-2012

[18bt] 13/10/2011 07:38

MM: These are 2010 figures The Op profit is forecast after £1.9m amortisation of intangibles, so the real operating margin was a respectable 9.5%. For 2011, Edison are forecast an op margin of 12% and I would hope that there is a little upside from there.

I don't forecast price performance. I am happy to hold shares which I view as cheap, try to buy shares which are very cheap and try and sell them when they look very expensive. As we all know, selling is the most difficult bit.

[mafia music] 12/10/2011 23:04

not very good profit margins

revenue = 117.57m
Operating Profit/(Loss) = 9.26m
Profit for the period = 3.1m


what are you thoughts on this and on future performance and what are you expecting as in share price performance over the next 12months?

[18bt] 10/10/2011 07:54

Good year end update. The net debt figure they forecast is very close to that ion Edison Research's latest forecasts. Edison's forecasts for 2012 ye net debt is £4.4m, which allows quite abit of headroom in 2012 either for acquisitions or for dividend increases in excess of what is expected by the market. Edison's forecasts are at the top end of current consensus, but would put AVON on a 2012 PE of just 9.0x, which looks a good 10% too cheap IMHO. In the current market, this now looks a pretty safe bet.

[jeffian] 07/10/2011 17:30

Pleased to see this bounce back at the end of the day. It looked as if it was missing all the fun earlier. With analysts' estimates for next year's eps over 28p/share, it doesn't look very expensive.

[rimmy2000] 06/10/2011 10:54

looks like it might take a leg down? sold my sipp holding.

[18bt] 16/9/2011 10:07

At first sight, the Edison PBT forecasts for both 2011 and 2012 are above the market consensus £11.7 vs £10.5 consensus, £13.2 vs £12.0 consensus. That may mean upgrades from the few brokers which covers it.

Rather encouraging is the forecast for 2012 operating cashflow of £17.5m which brings net debt down to £4.4m. I don't think the market will have factored in anything like this, so there may be scope for a greater dividend.

[cockneyrebel] 16/9/2011 08:55

Yep, a lot of short closing to happen bluebelle.

AVON looked at the highs this morning - just a matter of time till they make new ones on this chart and the newsflow imo.

CR

[bluebelle] 15/9/2011 13:07

CR

I think a lot of these stocks have suffered disproportionately from some serious shorting in the last month or so - GKN is another - but could now benefit disproportionately if this market rally continues and positions have to be covered. I think we could be seeing a classic short squeeze.

[cockneyrebel] 15/9/2011 12:48

Edison note out on AVON



Been good buying in the past few days and breaking resistance.

CR

[18bt] 13/9/2011 12:07

Must at least underpin if not upgrade 2012 forecasts. Looks an increasingly growth stock.

[jeffian] 13/9/2011 11:13

Quiet here! More good news this morning.

[mechanical trader] 15/8/2011 16:02

Results thursday,

Avon Rubber focuses on three major businesses: it provides rubber products for defence companies, liners and tubing for dairies to milk the cows, and gas masks for the military and emergency services. The group announced yesterday it had landed a lucrative three-year contract with the US Department of Defense. The deal will see Avon provide filters for use with its M50 gas mask, with the maximum contract value at $38m, and an initial order value of $11m, which will be completed this year.

The analysts were happy with the news, with Edison saying it supports its positive view on Avon's business "in these uncertain times". Besides, investors should note that the stock trades on just 8.5 times estimated earnings for next year, according to Altium, offering ample scope for upside gains, the Independent says.

[wanttowin] 11/8/2011 17:51

Hi all, Got in today at 266, been watching this baby rise for the last 4 months so confident this is a good entry point..

[nellie1973] 09/8/2011 17:08

Tipped in press today.

[jeffian] 08/8/2011 10:29

Well that seems to answer my fears about US military spending!



Everything being hammered at the moment but this should help AVON bounce back when some confidence returns to the markets.

[rimmy2000] 01/8/2011 15:35

looks like it might have found support at 280. might be good opp to top up. I'll be watching to see how it responds in the run up to Sept.

[jeffian] 26/7/2011 12:45

Slightly disappointed that we've become stuck in this range. I appreciate that AVON has had a very good run recently, but it was from a very low base and the current rating (PER around 10x forward earnings) is pretty modest. I wonder if what's happening in USA is worrying the market given the significance of US Military orders?

[bluebelle] 29/6/2011 14:48

Suggest you look at it in context. I don't know when you bought, but a dip today after the rise in, say, the last year is hardly going to keep investors awake tonight.