Avon Protection Share Discussion Threads

[conwyrebel] 05/9/2022 12:43

PM Truss will certainly create a stimulus.!

[fuji99] 05/9/2022 12:42

You are right ConwyRebel: If a ceasefire - with a lasting peace - is achieved between Russia and Ukraine, the markets will recover sharply. However, understanding a bit the mentality of putin, which is similar to any dictator on the planet, the probability for peace is very low. I say this because the common denominator of ALL dictators is that they are ALWAYS right regardless of their action or opinion of their "advisers". They only listen to their inner soul. Thus why they are unable to understanding what democracy or other ideas and point of view mean. We saw the result of saddam, gaddafi, the rocket man in Korea, etc. When any country is held ransom by bandits, sadists and mentally unstable people nobody can predict anything. Nothing exists around them except themselves. So Russia/Ukraine conflict is a psychological problem of personality. Nobody can tell putin he is wrong. He is the one man holding hostage a nation regardless if it goes to a disaster or not. The only scenario left is if he is not in good health and cannot govern or rather dictate. Then his replacement may use the opportunity to put all the blame on him and seek peace with the rest of the world. Otherwise to survive, a dictator needs enemies, real or fake. Without enemies, thus conflict, he has nothing to do, so cannot govern.

[lomcovaks] 05/9/2022 12:28

Good post fuji99,
Agree that the future is looking very murky but there are optimistic voices out there. This (apologies for length) from Investors Chronicle 19th August -

'But though there is widespread consensus that the economic outlook has darkened, there is a chance things might not be quite as bad as the BoE’s forecasts suggest.

According to the August projections, the UK economy will contract in the fourth quarter and continue to shrink over the course of 2023. This sharp drop in economic activity will be driven by “the significant adverse impact of the sharp rises in global energy and tradable goods prices on UK household real incomes”. As the chart shows, the Bank expects the recession to be relatively deep, with a peak-to-trough contraction of 2.25 per cent. Soberingly, it is also expected to last for five successive quarters – as long as the 2008 recession.


But not all forecasts are so bearish. Economists at Panmure Gordon predict a shorter, two-quarter contraction, and Capital Economics also foresees a shallower recession. Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macro, even argues that recession could be avoided. So why is the BoE so pessimistic?

Firstly, because it is bound by a number of forecasting conventions – and this is more interesting than it sounds. In 2019, the BoE set out a method for modelling energy prices which assumes that they first follow their futures curves, then remain constant after six months. This statistical quirk was designed to make forecasting simpler, but now has significant impacts: under the BoE’s projections, energy prices are assumed to stay at high levels over the forecast period. When the BoE adapts its model to allow energy prices to follow their (downward sloping) futures curve instead, the picture looks a little brighter: GDP contracts by 1.5 per cent instead of 2.1 per cent by the third quarter of next year.

What’s more, the BoE’s models only take current (or pre-announced) government policies into account. In normal times, this makes sense – there is usually a similar chance of fiscal policy becoming tighter or looser as the forecast period evolves. But with a new prime minister taking office in September, some level of fiscal stimulus looks almost certain. Further government action on energy prices could easily double the £37bn in help announced earlier this year. Under these conditions, the recession would be significantly milder: Panmure Gordon projects a two-quarter contraction, before a return to growth in Q2 2023. Pantheon Macro’s Tombs also argues that “with extra government support likely to be announced shortly after the new PM takes office, and households still holding considerable savings, a recession is not inevitable”.'

[conwyrebel] 05/9/2022 12:06

That could happen and a good post.

Or and most likely Russia and Ukraine create a ceasefire and markets rise.

The worst thing would be china going into Taiwan. Who knows what they are thinking right now…!

Either way rearmament is firmly underway across the globe.

[fuji99] 05/9/2022 11:50

The only saviour for the long term suffering holders will be a takeover bid. Otherwise, the downturn has already started a while ago and this will hurt every sector. The only unknown is the extend of the deterioration especially if the Ukraine/Russia conflict is still on-going and out of the blue, China puts an embargo on Taiwan (holding 61% of the world semi conductor production - used almost everywhere) - or even invading it, that will be a second conflict between the 3 most powerful military powers in the world. The recessions we used to have were not linked to geopolitical issues. They were part of an economic cycle and resolve with time. Today we are in another dimension and IMO it is a bit difficult to extrapolate any future outcome from what happened before. As a result, I feel next Christmas will be one of the worst we ever had as people will buy less and many retailers will go under the floor. This alone, will hurt the markets further. Then comes 2023 unknowns and possibly severe market corrections. A long bear market is shaping up.

[jeffian] 05/9/2022 11:25

I have been a long-term holder of Avon all through the process of transforming from a rubber-products company to the defense-based company they are today. They managed to make a meal of setting up the production of the protective equipment with late factory opening and supply-chain issues but, when it all came on stream eventually, all went well for a few years and the share price soared. Then came the fiasco of the acquisiton of the body-armour unit from 3m which, frankly, looks as if they were sold a pup and must have done so much reputational damage. The failure of life-saving equipment must surely impact on customer confidence across the range. Then, with the headwinds of Covid and consequences of war on components and supplies, headwinds arose again and management just doesn't seem able to adapt and cope.

I still hold my shares (quite a lot!) on the basis that the 'fundamentals' must be right, but whether this is the management to deliver, I have my doubts.

[fuji99] 05/9/2022 11:02

Jeffian: I was convinced that if they cannot make money during a lasting conflict something is wrong somewhere. As you say, I agree management is the doubt and to me this is total shambles. I just see disorientated headless chickens. I wonder if R & D activity and feedback is totally disconnected with management. Unless they are having testing issues again ... All will be revealed in their next update.

[jeffian] 05/9/2022 10:33

Nobody doubts that current conditions should favour Avon's products, CR. What is in doubt is the management's ability to deliver on basic issues such as supply chain management, cost control, product performance etc.

[conwyrebel] 04/9/2022 10:45

As an innovative capability provider, Avon Protection understand the unique requirements of the modern warfighter and tactical operator. This depth of specialisation and understanding has ensured products are designed to protect users in the most extreme of environments.
Avon Protection are proud to have supplied protection solutions to the UK Ministry of Defence and other allies since the 1920’s and remain the primary supplier of integrated protective equipment to NATO and the United States Department of Defense Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force and Special Operations Forces.

[conwyrebel] 04/9/2022 10:19

Article in times saying U.K. older helmets stocks given to Ukraine. Avon would benefit from this I would expect with new orders for helmets.

Also new entrants to nato need to begin the process of homogenising equipment across nato. Gotta to be a hold for now

[fuji99] 30/8/2022 10:23

If they cannot manage a turnaround and a profit in the midst of a war and conflicts, I cannot see when they will. IMO they are a total disaster. Could halve from here.

[jeffian] 26/8/2022 18:16

One certainly isn't confident that this management has a grip on the problems.

[fuji99] 26/8/2022 17:59

Another profit warning will take it below £5 in a few months.

[st3v3m] 25/8/2022 11:03

No announcement yet, hope they’re not promoting within. All the Exec team has played a part in this torrid affair. New CEO must make big changes.

[justiceforthemany] 24/8/2022 20:31

One month left for Macdonald. Why have they not found a new CEO yet - can not be that bad surely?

[ch1ck] 11/8/2022 07:36

There must be new on the new CEO SOONThis should move the price higher.

[ch1ck] 20/7/2022 14:07

Spending three millions more to recover the body armour project after the incident, rather than the ridiculous share buybacks would have been the way to go.I would have donated the old plates to the Ukraine. After all they passed hours of test firings and one failed during the trial with no recourse from the company

[ch1ck] 20/7/2022 14:02

Nine observation PinkI agree the new boss will sink all the news he can but there can't be much left. Maybe a refresh of the board with some industry bigger hitters could turn this roundThe potential is massive and I still think

[st3v3m] 17/7/2022 23:17

Has he gone yet?

[buywell3] 06/7/2022 08:21

Like many others

This shows buybacks do not help PI's

[fuji99] 01/6/2022 11:12

I cannot see the logic in the rise up to almost £12. The news history have shown how management was so unreliable and contradictory that nobody believes anymore any promise until seen delivered in flesh and bones.

[p1nkfish] 31/5/2022 17:44

Look what volume occurred on each bounce off £10 and the height of the bounce. Every chance this falls back, etc. Lack of conviction on the bounce?

[jeffian] 31/5/2022 17:24

I feared it might go on down but it does seem to have stabilised at this level....for the moment. Fingers X-ed there are no more management bloomers but I'm not that confident.

[conwyrebel] 24/5/2022 20:17

I am going to average down as this will be taken over

[danb45] 24/5/2022 19:48

possible takeover target ? that's what I'm praying for !!