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AVM Avocet Mining Plc

13.10
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 01:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Avocet Mining Investors - AVM

Avocet Mining Investors - AVM

Share Name Share Symbol Market Stock Type
Avocet Mining Plc AVM London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Last Trade
0.00 0.00% 13.10 01:00:00
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
13.10
more quote information »

Top Investor Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 14/6/2016 01:04 by noirua
Billionaire Investors Back A Gold Price Rally In 2016 - By Expert Panel | 14.06.2016


Gold has no upper limit on its price, and according to Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, speaking to the Financial Times recently, emerging economies might do well to shift all their U.S. dollar reserves to gold. Gold, he says, could be viewed as “an extremely low-risk asset” with average real returns comparable to very short-term debt.
Posted at 18/5/2016 17:27 by colinvest
Looks like today's close has broken up through a steep flag. MACD & STOC's bottoming out after the gap has been closed. May test the break-out tomorrow, or may just take off, - who knows? Recent consolidation has been healthy, to solidify any further advances. Consolidation would indicate a closing price of 72p today, which might attract institutional investors when the time comes.
Posted at 06/5/2016 11:17 by polaris
Hi all,

AVM has been a basket case for years. It made me a lot of cash at one point in time and i was quite an activist investor here, holding some 125k at the height of my holding in the mid 200s.

The hedge destroyed this company and a whole raft of other problems then came along. I cannot see any way of the current debt being paid back, whatever the pog may reach. The negative equity says it all really. At some point Elliott will pull the plug, take the assets as they are secured against the loans and sell them on to another small miner. AVM will fold. This is one for the penny gamblers and not any serious investor.

regards,

Paul
Posted at 17/2/2014 09:21 by dixi
Exactly what at AVM could be going on that is 'big'?

They usually start with something big and turn into something very small - like investors cash!
Posted at 26/7/2013 12:43 by polaris
Sigh - 20p, figure plucked out of the air - as per usual with no justification. Disgruntled investor buying at the top lol - i made my money on this from 50p lows of 2008 thank you very much, when there was an investment story to back things up. Anyone who has followed the threads on AVM over the last 6+ years will know where i am coming from. What about you? What you are trying to do now is a quick pump and dump. Once again, if you are a serious investor rather than short term gambler, you would have looked through the accounts but i doubt you have even done a cursory analysis.

Good luck is all i say and make sure you are out before the 8th August. I would be shorting at this level but my CFD supplier states these are unborrowable - shame as i doubt its worth more than a penny to current investors come year end (with the proviso that gold remains in the current range of $1300-1350).

You really must try harder than that.

regards,

Paul
Posted at 26/7/2013 12:08 by blackadder4
Disgruntled investor buying at the top..I am buying from the lows of 7p and accumulating.LOL.
I am targeting 20p short term.
Posted at 22/6/2013 09:58 by pineapple1
Buywell i think i was irritating PM miner investors on the BB,s far earlier particularly on POG
Polaris was interested why i felt like i did towards AVM and i don't remember you posting around the time of the huge director sell here.
Anyway its not a chest beating contest and if you called it correctly well done.

Anyway i,m now bullish the sector (not all as there are plenty of basket cases)).The time to be a bear was 12-18m ago not now.
We,ll see if your continued bearishness bears fruit.Personally i think you'll stay a bear to long as nothing lasts forever.I doubt there are many left to sell now.
I,m not in here at the moment as its got some real problems and i want to see what happens with one or two things before i buy.
imho
Posted at 25/2/2013 16:08 by lej2
My own spreadsheets left me with no doubt on Feb 14th that the future cash flows here were dire going forward to 2014 and beyond, enabling me to make a sell decision very quickly that morning. The reduction of the Mineral Reserves announced at the same time as the reduced production forecasts were frankly astounding. Have any of the more experienced mining investors here ever seen such a reduction in Mineral Reserves?
Posted at 15/2/2013 15:51 by buywell2
Avocet Mining plummets on resource downgrade




By Darshini Shah | Thu, 14/02/2013 - 09:32






Shares in Avocet Mining (AVM) plunged 40% after the company downgraded the mineral reserve at its Inata gold mine in Burkina Faso, resulting in a "significant" non-cash impairment.

The new mineral reserve is likely to be between 0.9 and 1.2 million ounces (Moz) as at 31 December 2012, compared to the previous mineral reserve of 1.85 Moz as at 31 December 2011.

However, the company stressed the reserve was based on the mineral resource within the Inata mining licence area, which did not include the Souma deposit, 20 kilometres east of Inata, where a mineral resource of over 500,000 ounces already exists.

The lower end of the re-estimate range is based on pit shells run at a gold price of $1,200 per ounce, while the higher end of the range is based on pit shells run at a gold price of $1,400 per ounce.

Looking ahead, production in 2013 is now expected to be approximately 135,000 ounces, similar to that achieved in 2012. Cash costs in 2013, including royalty payments, are expected to be in the range of between $1,050 and $1,100 (£905 and £948) per ounce.

However, the company stressed production in subsequent years, through to the end of the life of mine in about 2020, is likely to be in the order of 100,000 ounces per year, pointing out that this may change the following development of Souma.

As a consequence of these developments, Avocet is engaged in discussions with Macquarie Bank regarding hedge arrangements at Inata, including the restricted cash at Société des Mines de Bélahouro (SMB), the company's trading subsidiary which holds Inata, which was disclosed in its third-quarter accounts as $38.3 million at 30 September 2012.

"Avocet believes that in order to increase cash flow generation at Inata and maximise funds returned from SMB to finance corporate activities and support the company's investment plans at other projects, it is necessary to reduce the hedge book substantially as soon as possible," the company said. It added that it was in discussion with MBL regarding arrangements to ease near-term liquidity constraints at Avocet.

Analyst view

"This is yet another disappointing result from Avocet and raises further significant concerns over the asset base," commented analysts at Investec. "Clearly, the need to clear the hedge book, as the production outlook may be less than previously expected, is a major issue."

They noted Avocet did have a "strong" balance sheet, but cautioned: "Indications are that this is not enough."

Interactive Investor view

Shares in the company have plummeted almost 90% over the past year. But while the company continues to look undervalued, it will need to demonstrate operational performance for a re-rating to ensue.

Having done so well to rebuild investor confidence with the disposal of its underperforming south-east Asian assets, it will once again take some time before investors can regain confidence in Avocet's ability to hit its targets in both production and costs.
Posted at 24/3/2012 08:07 by simon gordon
FT - 24/3/12:

In gold mining, unexpected is not uncommon

By Bryce Elder

When it comes to losing investors money, equities have an endless scope to surprise. On Thursday, for example, the recent death of Colonel Muammer Gaddafi ended up costing the hedge fund manager John Paulson about £8m.

An uprising among Tuareg mercenaries returning to Mali, recruited and armed last year by the former Libyan leader, this week triggered a military coup in the west African nation. Randgold Resources, the Mali-focused gold miner, dropped 13 per cent in response.

It was another setback for Mr Paulson, whose hedge fund was still adding to its 1 per cent stake in Randgold during the fourth quarter. But how many investors could have anticipated this chain of events following the revolution in Libya? Judging by Randgold's share price, not many.

Before this week, Randgold was one of only two London-listed large-cap gold miners to outperform the price of bullion over the past three years. The stock had risen 86 per cent, against a 77 per cent rise for gold over the same period, and had been trading in lockstep with gold over the past six months. But, with its Mali mines expected to provide at least two-thirds of Randgold's production this year, news of the military coup left the shares lagging the gold price by 14 per cent since 2009.

Such events may be unpredictable, but they have not been uncommon.

Egypt's revolution has cost shareholders of Centamin 42 per cent over the past year as the miner struggled with strikes and shortages of explosives. African Barrick Gold, down 24 per cent in a year, suffered after an mob armed with machetes attacked is mine in Tanzania. Randgold itself was under pressure in late 2010 as violence followed a disputed election in Ivory Coast.

All of which may leave investors wondering why they should get involved with mining companies at all. Even without such "black swan" events to waylay the investment case, the political, technical and managerial risks still mean stocks rarely beat bullion.

Physical gold has outperformed global gold equities 82 per cent of the time over the past 10 years, according to Citigroup.

"Markets are telling us that gold stocks are boring," says Johnny Martin-Smith, an analyst at Westhouse Securities. "They react to bad news with alacrity and good news with a yawn."

Supporters point out that physical gold does not provide a yield. Gold miners have been boosting dividends in the hope of attracting investors away from exchange-traded funds and similar vehicles offering a more convenient way to bet on bullion.

Yet the sector remains some way from offering the kind of payouts that would attract income investors. In 2011, dividend yields for the gold producers were less than half the average for the mining sector at 1.3 per cent, according to BMO Capital Markets.

And a rising gold price is unlikely to result in improved dividends, warns Citi analyst Johann Steyn.

"Companies have to spend more and more capital to fight declining reserve and production profiles," he says. "Shareholders seldom share in the upside of margin expansion."

Citi recommends investors favour smaller gold prospectors, which it says offer more exciting growth prospects than the majors.

Avocet Mining, the only London-listed large-cap gold miner to beat the bullion price over the past three years, certainly matches that definition. Previously Aim-listed, Avocet entered the FTSE 250 this month, having gained 135 per cent over the period. Annual earnings per share are up fivefold and estimated gold reserves at its flagship mine in Burkina Faso have doubled since June.

But much of the growth is already in the price. Avocet trades at about 16 times 2012 earnings forecasts, compared with an average of less than 13 times earnings for both the emerging producers and the majors. By contrast, African Barrick has dropped to 10 times this year's earnings forecasts, while Centamin trades at just 6 times 2012 profit.

Avocet investors may also wish to note that Burkina Faso's government has been overthrown four times in the past three decades.

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