Aurrigo Share Discussion Threads

[smelleroo] 10/3/2009 16:44

dave,

thks for the update. i understand the first positive as the RNS says there is a co-investment agreement with aurora and the first fund. however, unsure on the second positive - the new fund will buy aurora russia shares? so the new fund's first investment in aurora russia - sounds dodge!! plus did they indicate whether there was a new fund to be launched in the near term?

smell

[davebowler] 10/3/2009 16:36

I have just spoken to one of the directors re. the RNS.
They think it has 2 positives;
A new fund will encourage deal flow and 50 % of any attractive
company investment will be earmarked for Aurora ,and secondly (best of all for us holders) the new fund may be used to mop up shares of disenchanted shareholders ( such as Hedge Funds) in
Aurora itself i.e.a good way of narrowing the vast discount between the
share price and the Net Asset Value.
The other good news is our Do It Yourself company has had a strong January and February.
He also said that no co. in the portfolio has any debt problem,indeed all have good cash reserves and are meeting management expectations.

[davebowler] 10/3/2009 14:54

Index up 10% today.

[lbo] 04/2/2009 11:40

PRESS RELEASE: Fitch Downgrades Russia To BBB

[das9] 02/2/2009 11:32

RTS bottom of 500 being tested to-day....

[darcon] 30/1/2009 18:12

I think we could yet see a lot of negative news from Russia over the coming 12 months linked to Russian companies being unable to refinance their debt, which could hammer funds invested in the country. So I think we have yet to see the true bottom for Russia.

[das9] 29/1/2009 19:23

I think the AURR share price is following the trickle down effect.

Unfortunate parallel I drew with 3i: it's getting hammered to-day, 75% discount or not...

But a now a more favourable parallel: multiple director buys!

May have reached bottom imho. Worth a look.

[das9] 27/1/2009 14:46

Big sale of 250,000..sp unmoved...

[das9] 26/1/2009 22:46

The record low estimate/fear for the FTSE stands at 2800 (on the GHT thread). Can anyone go any lower?

[barnes wallace] 26/1/2009 18:12

Put it this way, if the uber bears are right and its the end of the financial world as we know it, it doesnt really matter whether you're long or short, as you wont receive any money and money as we know it will be worthless.

On that basis, you might as well buy!

[das9] 26/1/2009 18:09

It occurred to me that 3i might have some parallel with this fund. When I looked it up I was amazed to find that 3i is currently trading at about 70% discount to NAV. (In Dec '06 the 3i share price was at a 30% premium, Dec '07 share price at about 5% discount). See



Over the last 12 months, using units of 1000, the 3i NAV has risen from 1000 to 1300 while the share price has fallen from 1000 to less than 300.

Sound familiar? It does to me, and I think I should buy some of these as well!

Things are bad, but can they really be that bad??

[das9] 26/1/2009 14:44

DaveB: many thanks. das

[davebowler] 26/1/2009 13:20

Have a look at the last 2 pages of this

[das9] 26/1/2009 11:29

RTS up to-day for a change!

daveB: Re your last post I would be interested to have more detail about what the directors have achieved previously. Thanks ia.

[davebowler] 23/1/2009 14:15

I sort of agree but valuations are a bit academic on unquoted investments as they are not tested by the market.The directors past track record on realising returns for investors on the other hand is good though.

[das9] 22/1/2009 23:19

I had overlooked the 31st March NAV for AURR.

For the period 31.3 to 30.09 as we know the AURR NAV rose by 2.45% .

In the same period, the JRS NAV fell by 35.7% (and the RTS by 41%) .

Therefore we can conclude

(a) the relationship between the AURR and JRS NAVs is poor, which makes the value of the previous exercise a bit doubtful, but

(b) if we have confidence in the AURR NAVs then AURR has proved itself over 6 months to be far more resilient than JRS and the Russian market as a whole, inferring imo that the current discount to NAV is significantly greater than 60% .

[das9] 22/1/2009 19:16

Daveb: so the insiders price for end Dec is 5 x 12 = 60 . Not far off the JRS figure!

Seriously I feel sure that the directors' remarks are (a) reliable and (b) conservative. It must be just as difficult for them as it is for us to decide how many shares to buy!

I had another look at the website and was again impressed by the info content and the infectious confidence of the company strategy.

I agree with BW that it will remain cheap for however long this mayhem lasts, but it might become less cheap!

I suppose there will be an end March valuation point, which will be announced in May. Anticipation of this might move the share price upwards.

[barnes wallace] 22/1/2009 16:04

Very interesting post das.

If one assumes their valuations are conservative, as anything else wouldnt be tolerated by any self respecting accountant or Nomad these days, one can assume, I believe, that there seems real value in these shares, despite the macro picture.

Whatever the global situation, there will always be a time when certain shares are discounted to a ridiculous level; I believe we are seeing that here.

That said, unquoted companies in Russia wont be on most peoples must buy list when they re-enter the equity markets, and I suspect it will remain cheap for a very long time, notwithstanding any unexpected corporate activity.

[davebowler] 22/1/2009 13:21

I think its a fair analysis ,das9.The basis for valuing unquoted companies will doubtless be in their last report.I spoke to the Directors a month ago
and they said any one of the major holdings alone would justify the price
at the time -12p I think

[das9] 21/1/2009 23:44

davebowler: thanks for your advertising on the JRS thread that put me on to AURR!

Looking at AURR's discount to NAV, we've got to accept that things have changed a bit since the NAV was calculated for Sept 30th. I have tried to bring the AURR NAV/discount up to date by making a comparison (fairly or unfairly) with the JRS NAV.

On 30th Sept 2008, we know both the share price and NAV for AURR and can calculate:

NAV sp Discount to NAV

116.9 42 64.07 %

On 30th September, JRS NAV was 455.29, on 31st December 205.71 . This represents a drop of 54.05% for the quarter.

For 31st December, if we apply the 54% devaluation to the AURR NAV, we get:

NAV sp Discount
(est)

52.82 15.5 70.65 %

As at January 20th the AURR share price has moved up (to 18.5) while the JRS NAV has gone down (174), and the same caculation gives:

NAV sp Discount
(est)

46.05 18.5 59.83 %

Even a 60% discount seems massive, and as of now I still find the arguments for AURR very persuasive (IMO, cross your fingers, etc).

There is always the possibility that AURR assets have held up more than those of JRS, and that the discount is greater than this.

It all comes down to how much you trust the company's strategy and its methods of NAV calculation. If anyone knows how NAVs are calculated for untraded companies and how reliable, please say!!

Meanwhile good luck to all holders!

[unionhall] 12/1/2009 14:22

...until now....

[davebowler] 12/1/2009 13:37

Big turnover in Aurora today -850k-with no adverse effect on the price.

[fathert] 07/1/2009 16:28

hi Barnes Wallace hope you had a great xmas - sorry to hear of the losses ,never mind chin up and glad you are feeling bullish again --- did you get a buyer for the car its typical of the bank not to give you a loan -- cheers FT

[barnes wallace] 07/1/2009 16:18

Looking cosily bullish.

[davebowler] 05/1/2009 15:00

20p here we come.