Aurrigo Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 10/4/2015 13:50

Papy02,

I agree with your numbers. I also agree that the director takeup is hardly positive. I too was thinking about buying more but now I'm undecided. I had assumed they had some reasonable expectation of getting £5 million+ for Unistream....

[gfrae] 10/4/2015 11:44

Thanks,Papy. So now with 44.6m shares outstanding the market cap is about £4.7m and the net cash is presumably now about £2m after the share buy back. So all depends on what they cab sell Unistream for.

[papy02] 10/4/2015 11:04

I'm only paying attention to Tim Slesinger selling his full 15%.

That says a director holding a large stake thinks more than 10p from here is not a slam dunk. I would have increased my stake if he had sold materially less than his entitlement, but as it is, this is bearish, so I will stick.

I can understand other non-BoD (pension funds etc) preferring the certainty of 10p for 15% of their holding - given this is now a roll of the dice on what Unistream can be sold for, and there is no recent guidance from AURR on their expectations - so I don't think this non-BoD takeup is necessarily bearish.

[gfrae] 10/4/2015 10:46

Can't work out if this is bullish or bearish. Bearish that so many shareholders prepared to sell at a discount (even directors are selling) but bullish for remaining holders who now own a greater %age of the co.
Any thoughts anyone?
G.

[papy02] 10/4/2015 10:03

renew

there are 44.61m shares in issue now - advfn and Digital Look are incorrect (not up to date)

After todays buyback, I make it 12.2p distributions from here for the BoD to get increased fees vs previously (and for Advisor incentive to start) and 18.3p for the BoD to earn £300k in fees (at which point shareholder approval is required for such fees).

Please correct me if you get different.

[renew] 10/4/2015 09:53

Hi Stemis
How do you arrive at the increase kicking in at 17p?
The advfn financials show 75m shares in issue and the announcement stated that the remuneration exceeds the current allowance at a return of 7.6m
If the nos of shares in issue is correct then the increase kicks in at just over 10p???

[papy02] 09/4/2015 23:06

Stemis, yes, unfortunately, this seems to be business-as-usual in the lifecycle of these specialist closed end IT's. In the endgame the Investment Manager, and in this case, BoD, "need incenting" to recover a few crumbs from the detritus they have created! At least here there is one director with a material holding - very unusual.

[stemis] 09/4/2015 21:57

Looks like the directors are going to manage to line their own pockets after all. Having presided over a fall in NAV from over £1 a few years ago to only 24p now, they have negotiated an increase in their fees that kicks in if they manage to return 17p a share to shareholders. That basically involves selling one investment.

[gfrae] 08/4/2015 20:42

The buy back as at 10p,ie less than the current bid price,so it's possible that they won't be buying in any stock in at all.
Unless,the directors know of a large holder who wants to sell,perhaps?

[azalea] 07/4/2015 16:24

I only hold 3386(thought I had a lot more than that), just sold them @ 10.6p

[azalea] 07/4/2015 16:16

Papy02
Re Walton: Not absolutely sure, but I think it was a statement on Citywire. I do not see his name on the major holders list, but of course he could be acting for an institution. Just looked at my notes, in which I wrote Walton( do not know what BTEM stands for) 5%, and £765,000; whether that was the value of the 5% in toto, or the value of the additional holding, I do not remember.

Yes I am a holder. However,because I failed to read any further than the directors reduction in fees, etc, I missed the buy back statement. Ho Ho. That said, the longer holders wait, the greater the likelyhood of the rouble recovering? Having taken part in previous buy backs I do not have that big a holding, so I am going to take a look and decide what to do.

[papy02] 07/4/2015 15:34

Azalea, do you have a link re your 460? I can't see an RNS or other news re John Walton (BTEM) 5% stake? Many thanks.

Are you a holder, may I ask? Do you have a view on the 10p share buyback on April 10th? It seems light on details - no director intentions re their holdings, no NAV comments.

I've speculatively bought a small position today at 10.74p, as

- "The Directors will receive a net reduction in fees until distributions to the Shareholders exceed approximately GBP5.3 million", which I make over 12p/share after this buyback (assuming full takeup of the buyback at 10p, and that my maths is right!). The new advisor performance incentive also cuts in at £5.3m

- My estimate of proforma NAV comes out at 18.3p/share after the buyback (again if full takeup), assuming no change in the Rouble valuation of Unistream (but allowing for Superstroy sale, rouble depreciation vs £, other costs and fees, etc). Against that, AURR NAVs have been all over the shop (admittedly in an unprecedented environment).

- What they will actually get for their Unistream stake is unknowable. If the outcome is anything like happened with Superstroy (sold for over double the last book value) then there is a lot of upside. The last Superstroy book value was savagely marked down before then selling at that premium. Unistream stake was not marked down (in fact up a bit) in the last results but maybe a similar kitchen sink pessimism was applied? Against that, an up to 6-12mo schedule to sell it may encourage a fire-sale approach by potential buyers of the stake?

- The Directors have a significant interest, in the shape of Tim Slesinger (who historically sold OSD to AURR and still has a sizeable AURR holding afaics) so the BoD is hopefully more aligned to shareholders than in the typical closed-end fund windup. He participated in previous tenders. It will be interesting to see if he participates in the Buy-back. I suspect he will, but if he doesn't that would be a further bull point.

- Obviously there are no end of risk factors - rouble, Ukraine, effect of sanctions, etc etc. So a speculation not an investment. Not for grannies/orphans.


Comments and thoughts welcome.

[azalea] 06/3/2015 08:45

Rouble rises to a near two month high against US dollar.

[azalea] 05/3/2015 14:31

Gets a mention today, JOHN Walton(BTEM) has taken a 5% stake, in the belief that as it approaches its wind up date, the notable discrepancy between share price and NAV will narrow. In the meantime, if Putin improves Russia's relationships with the E.U. and U.S, over Ukraine, there could be a marked improvements in Russia's economic prospects.

[blackpoolsteve] 05/2/2015 11:01

Agreed gfrae,share price decline over the last 5 years speaks volumes. I rest my case compared with SRE. Board are a disgrace

[gfrae] 05/2/2015 09:39

What's the point of this thing keeping a listing?

[envirovision] 03/2/2015 23:00

What they got in cash about 4 pence now is it ?

[skyship] 12/12/2014 07:10

P - no, mercifully not...

[praipus] 11/12/2014 20:11

Happens a lot Skyship, and buys showing as sells....strange world.

Have you got any AURR?

Tracking Greenwood and others Weiss, Laxey, Lars. Damille etc they all seem to do it disguising trades? or clerical errors? who knows.

[skyship] 11/12/2014 17:14

A rather bizarre Holdings RNS today. States that NJ Greenwood - one of the UK's star private investors - topped up his holding with another 300k to take him to 4.553m (10.2%).

The last Holdings statement for NJG was back before the May Tender - 4.007m (5.4%).

The implication is that he didn't tender his holding; but that would have been extremely unlikely. More likely that he did tender; and also bought out the Canadian pension fund which sold 3.97m shares on 21st May. But we should have received transaction statements...

[metamick] 17/10/2014 12:13

"In the circumstances, I would sell up and redeploy the proceeds in investments with better near-term prospects of generating a healthy return." and which one might that be

[skyship] 13/10/2014 13:10

ST recommends selling in his IC online piece today.

Won't post the article; but the last sentence reads:

"In the circumstances, I would sell up and redeploy the proceeds in investments with better near-term prospects of generating a healthy return."

[envirovision] 23/9/2014 12:49

Given the situation in Russia, I am surprised its not fallen further. Even the indigenous folk don't have access to funding at the moment and outside funding it presently illegal.