Aurrigo Share Discussion Threads

[tracy_moore] 01/5/2014 08:38

Not much of a " scramble".

[azalea] 01/5/2014 08:05

Great news this morning, a tender offer of 27.5454p for 29,651,549 shares approx 39.9% of those in issue. Sellers will be kicking themselves and will along with others scambling to buy this morning. This wil not be the last tender offer.

[azalea] 30/4/2014 09:08

I'm using Morningstar data which lists AURR. The 'indicated buy/sell volumes for Monday and Tuesday were 684,392/588,404 and 364,380/21,801,respectively. What numbers do you have for those two days? Regardless the share price jumped on Monday, with a small 0.125p tick up yesterday. When the Board announces the pay out, I expect the share price to move notably higher. Time will tell.

[envirovision] 29/4/2014 22:50

Sorry to sound daft Azela but have you not seen thas large volume below market late trades published both today and yesterhay ?

[azalea] 29/4/2014 17:16

I do not see one. Even if there was one, the MM would buy up all that was for sale, money for old rope.

[envirovision] 29/4/2014 14:33

Looks to be a mahausive seller though out there

[azalea] 29/4/2014 07:16

Yesterday,post the rns,Simon Thomson calculates the cash offer will amount to a 70% increase of the share price prior to the announcement. So we could be looking at circa 33/34p.

[azalea] 28/4/2014 16:03

Surprise surprise -up 15.6% on the news, the city and buyers have finally woken up. Morningstar data, estimated NAV 36p

[azalea] 28/4/2014 08:44

Another dollop of cash coming holders' way.Patience has its rewards.

[azalea] 27/3/2014 07:52

Russia is too important a player in Middle East politics, business opportunities and supplier of natural gas to Europe, to be isolated for a long period. Russia has a wide influence in central Asian countries who were once part of the USSR. In truth, the deposing of the President of Ukraine was no less undemocratic than the annexation of Crimea; however bearing in mind the current lawless situation in Libya, Putin did not want to see another' Arab Spring' on his own doorstep. IF Obama was smart he should offer Putin a way back in, in exchange for withdrawing support from Assad and his murderous regime and his removal from power.

[envirovision] 26/3/2014 17:45

Now the ST effect has passed I wonder how we discount the chances completing the disposal in a timely manner.

Yes as ST noted they have cash but they cant sit on these investments for the next 5 years or so in the hope the Russian economy may turn a corner and a new pro western president be wheeled in. Presently Russia looks like it has chosen to embark on a very long period of economic decline.

[azalea] 10/3/2014 15:29

inki

Thank you for your summary. Yes, I agree, what with the cash back from the bank sale and the other stakes it intends to sell the share price is at a massive discount to assets. Worth sitting tight,until they are sold.

[inki] 10/3/2014 15:14

Simon Thompson's recc - main points......
That's because even after a series of asset write-downs on Aurora's remaining three investments, Aurora's net asset value per share was still 40.7p at the end of September 2013, albeit down from 55p in March 2013. To put the value on offer into some perspective, with the company's shares trading on a bid offer spread of 19.5p to 20.5p, then based on 74.7m shares in issue Aurora's market capitalisation is £15.3m, or half the last reported book value of £30.2m.

That is quite an extreme share price discount once you factor in a series of transactions that have taken place since September to bolster the cash pile. It's also worth flagging up that the company is cash rich and is not a forced seller of its assets, so can bide its time to attain the best prices from its asset disposal programme.
-----
It seems to have been completely missed by investors that Aurora's board have stated in a release last month that they will be making an announcement on a further return of capital. It's only reasonable to assume that this will be carried out by the same tender offer process as last year with shares in the company being purchased most likely at the March 2014 year-end net asset value.

[azalea] 10/3/2014 13:31

Today's rise is due to Simon Thompson's recc. I do not have the full details.

[davebowler] 06/3/2014 13:15

The consideration for the disposal was RUR189.1 million (approximately GBP3.2 million) in cash plus, as part of the sale, mortgages with a nominal value of RUR144.2 million (approximately GBP2.4 million) held by Flex Bank which have been transferred to ARL's wholly owned subsidiary Kreditmart Finance Limited ("KFL").

Net of transaction costs, cash proceeds will be RUR172.2 million (approximately GBP2.9 million).

The mortgages transferred to KFL will be on-sold in due course in the open market, subject to any discounted value that may result on their sale.

These combined assets were held in the books of Flexinvest at GBP6.3 million as at 30(th) September 2013. The Rouble has depreciated by 12% from RUR52/GBP to RUR59/GBP since 30(th) September 2013 which has impacted the value of the transaction to the Company.

[azalea] 04/3/2014 12:59

OK. so at today's share price of 19p, still a significant discount to the revised valuation. Then add in the cash.

[envirovision] 04/3/2014 12:55

My guess:

Cash now 9M, superstroy sold for 3M after costs and Unistream 6M, time scale 2 years providing a YOY return of 11% or total 24p per share (approx 23% total, right then who is buying ?

.....silence is golden

[stemis] 04/3/2014 12:44

Except they've written down the books values in Superstoy and Unistream to £6.3m and £10.7m respectively

[azalea] 04/3/2014 11:56

Based on the last report I have by S. Thompson(23/7/13 -which may well have since been updated).

If one were to exclude all proceeds from the sale of Flexinvest Bank, and add the £4.2m cash reported at the Interims to the book valuation he gave for the two remaing stakes in Superstoy and Unistream £10.4m and £12m respectively, we would get a total of £26m(rounded down). Dividing the £26m by the 74.3m shares in issue, would by my calculation = 35p a share, against todays share price of circa 19p.

[stemis] 04/3/2014 11:33

Hard to know. They should have around £9.2m in cash now (£4.2m at 30 Sept + £2.8m further from sale of OSG + £2.9m from sale Flexinvest - £0.7m running costs). That's 12.4p per share. Are the rest worth £5m +? The last update I've seen (September 2013), Unistream was performing well and Superstroy holding its own. They are in the books at £17m...... although the rouble has fallen by 15% since then.

[envirovision] 04/3/2014 10:41

That was a nasty disposal, I currently don't hold. Is anyone brave enough to has a guess as to what over valuations may still exist and couple the return with the enfeebled rouble

[azalea] 20/2/2014 17:39

Mr John Greenwood upped his stake from 4.5m to 5m. What does he know that we PI do not?

[envirovision] 04/2/2014 23:54

Wee
bit confused on those major holding runs but it looks like one party pay have bought an optional interest in the other parties stake.

[envirovision] 20/12/2013 16:16

Well it does not look like that will help the further weakness you mentioned spob as that's towards the top end of the settlement monies.