Aurora Investment Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 20/11/2019 07:57

Good bounce from £1.80 but a reminder in the IC that the top two holdings are a quarter of the fund - EZJ & SPD. Not sure I'd be betting the farm on those. DTY would be much higher but for the dire performance. RYA 4% of the fund too. And for a fund that supposedly buys things at "..Less than half their intrinsic value", having 5.5% in GSK seems odd. I fail to see GSK doubling. Or the highly rated JDW.

[peanut100] 04/8/2019 07:17

If the trust was wound up tomorrow you wouldn't receive the NAV, that's for sure. No way you'd receive current market prices for HRN, CPP, DTY, SPD, SGI, RQIH, RDW, VSVS so yes should trade at a discount

[spectoacc] 03/8/2019 20:28

Have to laugh - they've basically read my post(s). I'd take issue with: "The manager has a distinctive investment philosophy and process, which focuses on identifying great businesses at attractive prices". Also that this is value investing - DTY, over-indebted and subject to two lots of regulatory review? SPD - Mike Ashley's plaything? I'd expect a 10-15% discount to NAV, not the perma-premium it gets to trade at.

[peanut100] 03/8/2019 06:29

Investec sell 2/8/19Slump in performance threatens premium ratingPhoenix Asset Management Partners were appointed manager in January 2016. Since that time, the company has consistently traded on a premium rating and it has been able to increase the number of shares in issue from 10.4m to 64.9m, with the market cap rising from just £16m to £124m. The manager has a distinctive investment philosophy and process, which focuses on identifying great businesses at attractive prices, defined as half their intrinsic value at time of investment. The portfolio is concentrated and turnover is very low.The fee structure is novel. There is no management fee, but an annual performance fee (payable in shares) equivalent to one-third of the NAV total return outperformance of the FTSE All Share, subject to a high water mark and clawback. Due to the underperformance since the management change, no fees have been paid to the manager, and indeed, a significant improvement is required before any fees will be generated.Investec view: The Board and manager deserve credit for reinvigorating the fortunes of the company.However, a function of the philosophy and a highly concentrated portfolio is that the performance is likely to materially diverge from the benchmark, and investors must be comfortable with this risk profile. At the end of June, the three largest holdings were easyjet, Sports Direct and Dignity; these represented 28% of NAV but have been a material drag on recent returns.Since January 2016, the NAV total return is 24.4% vs. a benchmark total return of 44.3%; we note that these numbers include a material enhancement from the share issuance program, and obviously reflect no management fee.For longer-term performance, the manager highlights that the Phoenix UK Fund has generated a total return of 487% since launch in 1997 vs 195% for the FTSE All Share, equating to an annualised outperformance of 3.5%. We have included this track record on page 2. This highlights how the performance diverges from benchmark but notably the relative chart highlights that the long- term record is flattered by three exceptional years in 2000, 2002 and 2003, a period when the fund grew from £18m to £45m.Although we would expect a less hostile environment at some point, value investing remains a very lonely place at the moment. Against this backdrop, we struggle to reconcile the current premium rating, which we believe looks vulnerable. We initiate with a SELL recommendation.

[spectoacc] 29/7/2019 07:11

If HL's holdings list to be believed, ARR got 9% of the fund in SPD. For "Buffetology", they seem to invest a lot closer to Buffet's UK punt on Tesco! Top 10, which is most of the fund: Easyjet SportsDirect Dignity Randall & Quilter Lloyds Bellway Tesco GSK VSVS Redrow Seems to be quite a few bad performers in there, not least the top 3 which are 28% of the fund. Same point as previously - why buy ARR at a premium when you could buy the holdings.

[jonwig] 29/11/2018 09:16

Questor in DT recommends them today: Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/questor-painstaking-research-bombed-out-stocks-value-investing/ Looking at their website, they don't have a portfolio list. They have an up-to-date primer, which has a table showing comparison with All Share index and it's quite impressive: Https://www.aurorainvestmenttrust.com/cms/assets/244/7rxw4356hagbm4sly2tk4lni/Aurora%20Primer%20October%202018.pdf

[irenekent] 19/2/2018 18:48

Merryn Somerset Webb recommends in FT this weekend. Anybody know what they invest in at the moment?

[spectoacc] 17/8/2017 12:45

Credit where its due, they've performed well (much as the market has). Still a premium mind, and still greatly preferable to just replicate the holdings.

[spectoacc] 11/10/2016 13:26

Tempted to call this the single most over-rated IT on the market, but realistically it's only Top 5. Cannot understand who'd want to pay a premium (& an annual management charge of 2.58% according to HL, though I think that's wrong) for a Trust with so few holdings - just buy them yourself! If you believe Barratts, Bellway, Lloyds, Tesco, SPD, JDW, MRW, GSK, Vesuvius & Hornby are good buys, then buy them, don't buy ARR. That's 89% of the portfolio covered (inc 5% held in cash), and would give you a much better yield. Then just keep an eye on their Top 10 for changes, there's unlikely to be many. Sports Direct, lol.. Tesco also highly dubious (the claim "Buffettology" - Buffett got out), & Lloyds is a long after the govnt sell down, not before IMO. Hornby I don't follow, Vesuvius I like, Glaxo is over-distributing and has become one of the "bond proxies" that won't be this high indefinitely. The housebuilders I like but not for a quarter of the portfolio. They're deep value but they can't run on forever. I keep hearing how we're not building enough houses but hear very little about how that was the case when the housebuilders were 90% lower. Sure, they won't get done by debt this time - IMO it'll be either input costs (labour, already in shortage, going to get much worse nearer to Brexit) or adverse legislation (eg forcing land with PP to be built on, not land-banked). And all that, for an 8p premium? Strewth. NAV 161.7p, yours for 171p. Edit - no, they really do charge 2.58% pa, and worse: "The ratio is calculated excluding finance costs but including operating expenses charged to capital and applied to the average NAV of the year. Expenses of a type not expected to recur under normal circumstances are excluded from the calculation" So potentially even higher in reality. About the only arguments for ARR are 1. You've no time to monitor your portfolio (though ARR claim very low churn); 2. You're investing tiny amounts, where the fixed commission charge on buying the Top 10 is outweighed by the single commission on buying ARR at a premium, but even that doesn't apply if you're a long-term holder: -2.58% pa will really eat into returns. Edit - and I accept the argument that if you buy on a premium, but also get to sell at the same premium, then in some ways it's irrelevant. But it's not irrelevant to the portfolio yield, nor the risk that a premium becomes a discount when you come to sell. To give an example of the effect of 2.58% charges (and they're at least that, more likely higher): Assume everything grows at a very tidy and consistent 10% pa compound, 100k invested. Buying the shareholdings individually: 100k 110 121 ... £259k after 10 years. Buying ARR, ignoring the premium: 100k 107 114 ... 199k after 10 years So a £60k difference, or 60% of the initial amount invested, just for a 2.58% charge. And that's after only 10 years. (Yes - I've ignored the extra commission costs, say £100 vs £10, with a change or two each year. I've ignored the effect of tax on the divis, and the cost/hassle of reinvesting where those holdings don't have a reinvestment scheme. But £60k!! Also, if you're putting the 100k into ARR at a premium, you're getting more in yield buying the holdings, which would cover some extra commissions to reinvest).

[luckymouse] 30/8/2016 07:14

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-3761404/AURORA-INVESTMENT-TRUST-Aurora-brighter-dawn-Mars-left-behind.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

[wirralowl] 21/3/2016 10:42

More insight into Aurora's new philosophy in a detailed 2 page article with Aurora director Tristan Chapple, in Shares Magazine this week. Some points from the article: * New IM took over the fund in January 16 and cleared out all the small illiquid stocks and has already replaced them with a portfolio of stocks more representative of their value investing style,‘Aurora’s portfolio today is a Phoenix portfolio.’ * ARR scan the market for quality companies trading at what they consider to be half their 'intrinsic value'. Can take many years for firms to reach this target valuation, consequently ARR has a concentrated portfolio of just 15 stocks at present. * ARR would be quite happy with a market wobble caused by Brexit or other event ' Crisis is opportunity for us' says Chapple. * Biggest holding currently is LLOY @ 13%, followed by Tesco (11.8%) and BDEV @ 9.2%

[wirralowl] 10/3/2016 10:38

I took a small long-term position in my SIPP yesterday @ c.167p, partly to ensure that I should be able to take part in any forthcoming rights issue, which has already been flagged by the new management team, to bring the market cap up to circa £50m. For me, its the perfect SIPP stock, that I can hopefully just leave for the Manager (and time!) to do its thing...

[wirralowl] 10/3/2016 10:02

Felt a new beginning deserved a new thread... Aurora Investment Trust plc is a listed investment company formed on 13 March 1997 and domiciled in the United Kingdom. With effect from 28 January 2016, the Trust is managed by Phoenix Asset Management Partners Limited ("PAMP"). Gary Channon, Manager of the Phoenix UK Fund since 1998, will run ARR. His Phoenix UK fund, is an Institution-only fund, that has increased its NAV by 416% since launch, with an investment return of 706% (12.5% annualised). He will take charge of Aurora and plans to replicate, as closely as possible, its offshore, existing Phoenix fund. The Manager's Investment Approach is 'long-term, value-based and focussed' and is inspired by Warren Buffett and Phil Fisher. ARR will be a concentrated portfolio of high conviction stocks, held for the long-term: hTTp://www.aurorainvestmenttrust.com/Investment-approach Dividend Policy: It is a requirement of HMRC that an investment trust distribute at least 85% of its net income and we intend to comply with that minimum. Therefore the dividend will be a function of the dividends paid by the companies we own and the Trust cost base. We will make no attempt to smooth or flatter the dividend Cost structure: The manager will not charge any admin or basic management fee of any kind. Instead there will be a performance fee (1/3rd of the out-performance (over the FTSE) paid in shares to the Managers), but with a 3 year clawback period if any of that performance is given back. In other words the Manager will only make money if he does well on a rolling, long-term basis; so interests very much aligned with shareholders... At 166p, the current market Cap of ARR is £20.1m, which the Manager admits is too small, so there will be a rights issue / open offer of sorts in the near future, to raise the market cap of the company to c.£50m. More details from the Company website: hTTp://www.aurorainvestmenttrust.com/About-Aurora A short introduction to the 'new' Aurora: hTTp://www.aurorainvestmenttrust.com/Aurora-Primer A table of the Phoenix Fund's impressive track record: hTTp://www.phoenixassetmanagement.com/Track-record Excellent MoneyWeek video interview with Gary Channon, March 2016: hTTp://moneyweek.com/gary-channon-the-three-things-i-look-for-when-buying-a-company/

[rupe1958] 11/7/2014 15:16

The rise in GCM today must have added about 1.5% to NAV 2m shares, +17p = +£340k approx

[trustman] 31/1/2012 16:58

Interesting stock with internal gearing.........NAV discount was c 20%, waiting for NAV update, last 17th Jan. This is a"risk on" market stock that has been volatile but looks interesting again IMHO......no ramp intended.

[lucky_punter] 22/11/2011 13:48

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/35933/ariana-resources-sees-potential-for-early-production-at-kepez-35933.html Ariana Resources (LON:AAR) said surface sampling of the Karakaya vein on the Kepez project in Western Turkey has identified higher than previously anticipated concentrations of silver. Rock chip and float sampling revealed the average grade was 65 grams per tonne of the precious metal to a maximum of 277 grams per tonne.

[motw] 10/1/2011 13:10

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=24051084

[sellandrepent] 17/9/2010 20:59

Why five years MOTW? I may be wrong but many investors nowadays buy and sell when they make a resonable profit. This might be in weeks or months. I think the days of buying shares with the view of keeping them for five years are long gone. Personally i bought these within the past six month and am looking at a 20% return on my investment. I think James Barstow and his team are doing a great job and we appear to be in good hands. Personally, I am considering selling my shares but feel a price target of 250p is achieveable first. Best wishes to all holders.

[motw] 16/9/2010 09:18

Its the five year figures that matter... u are better off buying capital gearing trust in my view...

[rampmeister] 15/9/2010 22:46

In September issue of Money Observer this IT is ranked top of UK Growth sector for one, six and 12 months. James Barstow must be doing something right. No position yet but minded to make small purchase. RM

[motw] 15/9/2010 07:50

I guess you are right if the review leads to a buy back to close the discount. Yes I hold some.

[sellandrepent] 14/9/2010 15:09

MOTW, The share price keeps going up (today anyway). Even if Richard Martin is not independent, surely it is a good thing that they have review. The market seems to think it's a good appointment. Do you hold shares in Aurora IT?