Avesoro Res. Share Discussion Threads

[beeezzz] 03/11/2015 21:53

Uncertainty is hold the share price back on all fronts.

[diesel] 03/11/2015 17:58

They need POG and production to increase, production is in their hands gold prices aren't, anyone's guess right now.....

[chipperfrd] 03/11/2015 16:06

Thanks UKGeorge.

I only mentioned the possibility of hedging due to a statement they made regarding the debt negotiations. If they have no hedge in place then things are easier to calculate but they may have made themselves vulnerable to price volatility at a critical time.

I will keep an eye on it.
Regards
Chip

[htrocka2] 03/11/2015 16:03

03 Nov Aureus Mining finnCap Buy 16.88 44.00 44.00 Retains

[ukgeorge] 03/11/2015 15:45

Hi Chip,

I don't think they have a hedge in place.

I think you are right on the debt payments. I think they will be working on getting the first payment moved back.

They have only produced 6koz so far, so 30-32koz is a little optimistic imo.

Their AISC should be around $900 so a margin of $200 at today's prices and quarterly production should be 30koz. So $6M free cash flow per quarter.

Really doesn't leave a lot of breathing space.....

I've basically sold out have 10k shares left

I think a rights issue would be prudent.

Current mkt cap is £63M, which seems a bit toppy given the problems.

[chipperfrd] 03/11/2015 13:48

I have only just started to look at this again after all the corporate activity since the Mano River days so I am not as fully appraised as I would wish.

Does anyone have any definitive information regarding their hedging positions (ie price and quantity by year)?

I have looked at quite a bit of the available documentation but have not yet found the details so I would be obliged if anyone could fill in the blanks.

On the question of their debt schedule: the senior debt repayments appear to be semi-annual over 9 tranches starting from January 2016. Hence the amount due in Jan-16 would appear to be US$9.778m followed by a similar amount at mid-year.

At 30th June they reported cash of US$21.1m and this would appear to be after all their pre-production CAPEX spend. So the question then becomes 'what will be their cash flows from Jul-15 to Jan-16'. Those cash flows will be impacted by revenue from the 30-32koz that are likely over that period - hence my query regarding their hedge position.

The other issue will be their sustaining CAPEX outflows - which appear very hard to estimate given their pre-commercial operational status.

Outwardly it would appear (to me) that they are likely to have sufficient cash next January to meet their first debt repayment but that their future payments (particularly in 2017) are highly dependent on the prevailing gold price given my own estimations of sustaining costs - but I think some of this data may well have come from the initial DFS.

Regards to all holders
Chip

[rollthedice] 03/11/2015 08:54

Is everyone confident re debt?

--

Definitely not. Some delays are to be expected but when company sees need to highlight debt repayments due without categorically stating that they can/will be met from existing resources that's a big concern. Personally I think it was a flag that a placing is on its way to shore up balance sheet ~ which would be a good thing even if share price took a short term hit.

[michaelwhight] 03/11/2015 07:30

Oh no more shares.

[robrah] 02/11/2015 17:55

One can only hope ...

[taffer87] 02/11/2015 17:02

Is everyone confident re debt?

[michaelwhight] 02/11/2015 08:35

Looks like February is earliest date for steady state now.

[ukgeorge] 30/10/2015 10:22

Unionhall and Mclayton

they have lost basically 3 months of production. As they have produced about 6koz when they should be doing 10koz a month.

They are burning cash and the debt payments are due in January.

I have sold out as they lost my trust and the massive problems they are facing.

I think a capital raise is inevitable and will buy back in then if they have made progress to reaching commercial production.

The adage of a gold miner being a liar standing by a whole in the ground springs to mind

[beeezzz] 29/10/2015 21:37

For AIM companies share price to rise they need to be making a profit...that is all that counts everything else is noise.

[unionhall] 29/10/2015 20:49

What do you mean by " their target of 60000oz by year end. " ?

Cheers...

[michaelwhight] 29/10/2015 19:58

Well if we have only lost a couple of weeks production and if they can ramp it up things may improve but they are a long way below their target of 60000oz by year end. Too much uncertainty here for some in the short term but let's get to steady state and see some meaningful cash come on. There has to be a re rate at that point. I would like to see this hold 15.5p however.

[mclayton3] 29/10/2015 19:12

Not sure where the disappointment is here, has only lost a few days production up to now and will hopefully confirm is only that in the next few days, pog is in a much better position now, surely this must begin to recover soon!

[robrah] 29/10/2015 18:45

Don't think it will make much different. Reading has disappointed . One time too many

[mclayton3] 29/10/2015 17:49

They really need to update either tomorrow or Monday confirming ops are back up and running to stop this sliding!

[robrah] 27/10/2015 11:31

Rapid daveWee did have a rapid market crash this did not hedge and gold has been produced and this did not re rate. Ppl don't have confidence in David reading.

[rapiddave] 26/10/2015 13:33

Haha I had to sell my glass ages ago. For what its worth tho the way I see it is that this stock is a great hedge. Market crashes? we get a nice boost. If market doesn't crash we'll rerate to a producer MC anyway over time. Just have to look at our peers who are producing at similar ounce/per yr

[ukgeorge] 21/10/2015 09:35

rapidDave, I take it your glass isn't half full? Is it overflowing, and you have two in reserve.

[rapiddave] 20/10/2015 22:23

There is just no chance AUE will miss the first debt repayment and saying that with the extra hardware required to smooth out these teething probs and the other heavy plant excavators etc planned to be bought in January my personal feeling is another small equity placing to cover the bases like they did earlier in the year around 17p to get the mine plan sorted. After this we'll be sorted and I then expect a change in direction whilst ever the gold price is building

[diesel] 20/10/2015 17:52

But why did they mention debt repayment at all?, also if they have had mechanical problems while throuput is way below steady state, it's a bit worrying.