Arria Nlg Ords Share Discussion Threads

[capital_echo] 14/12/2016 13:09

Thanks lydnem. So rackers, I don't understand what your involvement is here. Guessing you bought Arria at a higher price ? If so, fair enough but give it a rest, it's very dull.

[lydnem] 14/12/2016 12:57

rackers and aja5 have lost their shirts on TERN, kidknocked has been a long term bear of TERN, and so they attack NLG because of his liking for the stock. Pretty pathetic really, but they are mentally challenged.

[rackers1] 14/12/2016 12:56

ahh its calamity Kid.

how are you ?

facts are facts dear boy. this has collapsed from 44p to 14p while all the time the same old clowns spout their ramping rubbish and deride anyone who dare call this absolutely right. how you sleep well at night speaks volumes.

[capital_echo] 14/12/2016 12:50

Why are you so negative on this ? Seems like you're negative on the posters rather than the firm ?

[capital_echo] 14/12/2016 12:49

Rackers, the mid here was 10p a couple of weeks ago, it's now 15p. An improvement of 50 percent.

[valmos] 14/12/2016 12:10

It's gone up 10% I belive.....

[lydnem] 13/12/2016 08:27

rackers is mentally challenged, and not afraid to prove it daily.

[lydnem] 13/12/2016 08:07

aja5 and rackers are mentally challenged.

[aja5] 12/12/2016 22:30

To be honest,I'm learning to copy&paste on a iPad....lol
Only had it three years !!

[dingowatty] 12/12/2016 20:21

Hehehe...you have to have a wee chuckle at the level of self-delusion... :)

[kidknocked] 12/12/2016 20:18

Off to Germany for a month tomorrow, lots of family and skiing time ! Merry xmas and happy new year, even you Aja5.

[aja5] 12/12/2016 19:49

Still three weeks left for this !!!

Kidknocked - 29 Jan 2016 - 11:21:57 - 1188 of 4062 Arria - NLG
My view is entirely unchanged. Still north of 100p by year end.

Pmsl

[kidknocked] 12/12/2016 19:31

Hi Valmos, with very low liquidity it's basically just up the MMs to mark up the book any way they choose, up or down doesn't really mean anything without any volume (though up is better).

[aja5] 12/12/2016 19:30

Anyone Remember this ???

Kidknocked - 11 Jan 2016 - 13:20:29 - 26045 of 52928 TERN, encrypting the cloud and Internet of Things. - TERN
Aja. NLG is fully funded via a landstead subscription deal for at least 18 months, which leads them into break even. Next question

Some many many million later and the begging bowl out again for another £14 million (almost double the original proposal) all since this post,which was ramping it's way aroung the forums !!!

[valmos] 12/12/2016 19:04

How come no shares buy or sale and price gone up?

[kidknocked] 12/12/2016 16:47

Nice gain on huge volume today lol

[aja5] 08/12/2016 20:19

My point was if you look at the chart they couldn't have amassed 3.5 million shares at that price,it doesn't seem possible,their current average price must be higher than your above explanation/model
I am aware of the agreement terms as shocking as they are.....to get the price down to your above model there is ten months more of this,but the move to down under complicates your calculations....could lanstead stop the move by voting against at a EGM therefor keep filling their coffers so to speak ???
Accepting they will have atleast another 4 months of their agreement to carry on as they have done !!

Not many PI's will hold a chunk of 50k to sell and if they do the chances of moving them in one go I would think to be fairly slim....

[kcr69] 08/12/2016 13:19

Aja5

With regard to your second point, I don't agree that this mornings activity confirms they are liquidating at any price. If 60,000 shares turned into 6,000,000 and at a price of less than 10p or 5p then I would wholeheartedly agree, however this mornings activity is probably no more than a PI, and as you say, with an over-reaction in price due to limited liquidity.

It is interesting that in recent RNS, the current CEO has continually made a point of thanking Lanstead for their co-operation. Irrelevant of how good the deal is for them, my guess is that she is really thanking them for not selling a huge tranche of stock, with its obvious impact on the immediate price and listing goals of Arria, while providing £1.6m and ongoing monies out of their own funds.

As always, and without prompting a philosophical debate on time....time will tell.

Regards

[kcr69] 08/12/2016 12:27

Morning Aja5,

Yes I am genuinely saying that anything they are offloading at the moment they are doing so at a very healthy profit, 40% - 60% being about right. It is just quite difficult to articulate without doing a huge amount of work which I just don't have the time or inclination for at the moment.

Here is my very shorthand guide in trying to explain (with approximate figures).

You have to re-read (very slowly!) the highly convoluted RNS from the 15th October 2015, which 'explains' the subscription agreement with Lanstead.

In principle Lanstead received 18.5m shares(plus circa 1m freebies)for 'providing' £6m of equity to Arrria (it was over two phases but lets not worry about that for now). The assumed share price for this transaction (qualified by dividing £6m / 18.5m shares) was 32p (This was close the share price at that point). However of the £6m funding, Arria only kept £900k, returning the other £5.1m to Lanstead, who would then fund Arria in 18 monthly instalments (around £280k per month).

Still awake? This is where is gets....mind numbingly unbelievable.

Rather than just receiving the £280k a month for 18 months, Arria and Lanstead agreed that the money would be paid pro rata to the share price at a given point in each of the subsequent 18 months. The base share price for this calculation was agreed upon at 42.7p (lets call it 40p for simplicity).

To explain, if the share price in month 1 of the repayments was 50p (e.g. 25% greater than the base price), then Arria would have received £350k for that month with the additional £70k being a bonus and irrelevant to the following 17 months, as each month is treated as an individual calculation.

Of course reality has proven that the share price in each of the 9 months since the agreement has probably been closer to 15p - or 60% lower than the base price. In this scenario, rather than Arria getting £280k for any month where the share price was 15p, they would in fact only get around £110k, with the other £170 lost forever.

So how are Lanstead currently making a profit on their share sale?

The RNS of 10th June 2016 informed us that over the first 4 months of the agreement, Lanstead had paid Arria £471k based on the agreement (an average of just under £120k with £640k being lost to the ether....or Lansteads pockets)

The RNS of 3rd October 2016 informed us that the company had progressively received £680k from Lanstead (I will assume 8 months had elapsed) so an average of £85k per month - now implying £1.6m has been lost to the Ether......or Lansteads pockets.

Lets assume, for the sake of argument and simplicity, that Arria receive 100k a month from Lanstead for the remaining term of 10 months (implying a share price around 17p). In that scenario Ariia would have received in total
1. The initial £900k
2. £680k for the first 8 months
3. £1m for the next 10 months

A total amount received from Lanstead of circa £2.6m - end of agreement.

Lanstead as such have received the best part of 20m shares for an outlay of £2.6m (clearly not the £6m anticipated) which is about 13p a share....it could easily end up closer to 11p or 12p. As such with them selling at 15p - 18p....bingo 40% to 50%.

Is it good, is it bad, is it fraud, is it criminal...have Lanstead (or chums) been shorting the stock in small volumes for the past 10 months, Is its just a dreadfully constructed deal on the part of Stuart Rogers.

Most definitely the latter. Highly likely that Lanstead have shorted this for the past 10 months.....wouldn't you? Ultimately Arria have received funding, but the reality of the price was never 32p, and in reality will be on par with that of warrants offered to loan holders over the past 2 years....quelle surprise?

Helpful??

After all that I am still genuinely unsure as to whether Lanstead offloading at the moment is good or bad, I am just fairly confident that they are doing it a decent profit.

I will always try and keep things civil amongst like minded people.

Best wishes.