Aura Renewable Acquisiti... Share Discussion Threads

[gnomet2] 14/12/2006 02:12

Thanks nwb. Reassuring.

[n_w_b] 13/12/2006 14:15

4th December - Piper Jaffray
Ardana Plc ARA LN - 115.0p
Outperform

Significant news flow should drive the stock in the
near term

KEY POINTS:
• Multiple positive news on Teverelix expected over the next few months.

• We continue to believe that the stock is highly undervalued.

• Ardana presented at the Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference on Friday.

• Ardana reiterated its news flow expectations for Q4-06. Key expected events
include:

1. The launch of Invicorp in the UK. Invicorp is an injectible drug for the treatment
of Male Erectile Dysfunction. Ardana has European rights to the product.

2. The start of Phase III trials of Testosterone Cream, which is aimed at treating
men with lower than normal testosterone levels. Phase III results should be
available in Q3-07, allowing regulatory filings by the end of 2007, with a
potential launch in 2008.

3. The start of the pivotal trial of EP1572 as a diagnostic for patients with growth
hormone deficiency. This trial should complete in 2007, with a possible
regulatory filing by the end of 2007 and launch in 2008.

4. The results of the first Phase IIb trial of Teverelix, Ardana's GnRH antagonist,
for BPH. We expect this trial to report positive data and corroborate the
statistically significant results of the previous Phase II trial. Further BPH data
(from a repeat dosing trial) and data from a Phase IIb trial in prostate cancer are
due in H1-07.

• Teverelix partnering discussions progressing well. Ardana reiterated its intention
to sign a partnership for the future development and commercialisation of
Teverelix in the near future. We believe this drug could be of interest to pharma
and biotech majors alike.

• With the breadth of newsflow expected from Ardana in the next few months, we
are confident about the stock's upside potential and reiterate our Outperform
recommendation.

PRICE TARGET AND JUSTIFICATION:
Our sum-of-the-parts DCF derived price target remains at 298p (see note of 24
November 2006 for detailed methodology).

[gnomet2] 11/12/2006 06:25

Well .....tick-tock ...tick-tock. Hell, there should be something this week.
A quiet thread, but ta for the posts you lot - appreciated.

[n_w_b] 19/11/2006 11:23

Winter presentation has now been posted on their Website:



Six pieces of news expected by the end of this year, in addition to the Results.

Results from Phase II trial of Terbutaline H2 2006
Start registration trial for Oral GHS diagnostic H2 2006
Invicorp™ mutual recognition H2 2006
Start Phase III trial of Testosterone Cream H2 2006
Launch Invicorp™ H2 2006
Teverelix Phase II data – BPH H2 2006

[n_w_b] 16/11/2006 08:30

Taken from last weeks IC

10 November 2006

Biotech's best bets


If your fingertips are still burning from your brush with online gambling, steel yourself. It's fair to say that picking biotechnology stocks can often feel like playing the roulette wheel, too. That's because it's impossible to know whether a new drug that scientific boffins are developing will ever gain approval. The statistics speak for themselves.

With the soaring cost of regulation, it now takes up to $1.2bn to take a new drug from the test tube to the market, and only one in 10 products will be a success. There can also be plenty of hot air from companies about what they will achieve, not to mention the ramping-up of some shares on bulletin boards. What's more, firms that claim to have a blockbuster can run short of cash and either collapse, as with PPL Therapeutics, or be taken private at a fraction of what analysts once forecast they were worth, like Xenova. Indeed, German company TeGenero, which was behind the botched drug trial at Northwick Park this year, recently went into liquidation.

But as well as the risks, there can be real rewards for some lucky investors. Those who took our advice to buy shares in Cambridge Antibody Technology at 678p (24 February 2006) saw their investment double when it was snapped up by AstraZeneca for 1,320p a share in May. Then investors in Neutec Pharma were similarly rewarded with a takeover by Novartis at 1,050p a share in June - a premium of over 100 per cent to the share price prior to the announcement.

This suggests that there may be an approach that investors can take to make the investment process more like a game of poker, involving some skill, rather than a game of chance. It isn't based on traditional measures such as the price-earning ratio, but instead relies on other checks that you can make.

First, consider the reputation of the management team. It might seem strange in a sector so focused on science, but often the credibility and experience of management can be more important than the technology. "Investors should think about the company's track record in terms of delivery," says Sam Fazeli, managing director of European equity research at analyst Piper Jaffray. "Is it a management team that can achieve?"

Of course, the products are also important, too. So you should look for a company with a decent pipeline, with plenty of drugs at different stages in the clinic and hopefully with a potential blockbuster. But if the product fails, you also want a management team that can let go and pursue an alternative strategy. "You don't want a chief executive that's fallen in love with his own product [and won't abandon it if it doesn't work]," warns Brett Pollard, analyst at Numis Securities. "And you want a portfolio of [different] products, rather than a platform technology."

Many biotechs are run by scientists, some of whom have spent many years working on a drug. They may find it heart-wrenching to throw that hard work away if the product flunks the trials, but a decent management team will do exactly that. Dr Pollard also points out that you should look for companies that conduct thorough clinical trials, with a placebo comparison if appropriate, because this is what pharmaceutical company partners will expect. If the trials aren't conducted properly, the results could be misleading and the drug could fall over further down the line in trials that are more expensive. That means money is wasted. "You've got to look at the management," he says. "And when you're backing management, you've got to ensure that Phase I and II trials are done properly. For example, proper Phase II trials need a significant amount of patients, not just 10, or the company is limiting its chance of success in Phase III."

Cash, too, is an obvious box that needs ticking. Does the biotech have enough funds - ideally two years' cash - and, if not, will investors welcome a fund-raising? "You want a company that's well-cashed," says Dr Pollard. "The smaller the market capitalisation, the more difficult it is to raise money."

A further factor to consider, given the flurry of summer takeovers, is whether your company could attract a predator. "Is this a company with assets that could be attractive for acquisition?" asks Dr Fazeli. "I think the fewer licensing deals that a company has done, the more likely they are to be acquired."

But Dr Fazeli adds that investors shouldn't expect a quick fix. "Patience is a significant virtue here," he says. "Think about the long term. Many successful [US] companies have many false starts. Some of these companies have been almost bankrupt at some points. But [by investing in biotech], you could potentially have a piece of action that could make a difference in somebody's life. It's not like investing in a bakery."

Above all, though, you should take a portfolio approach, and buy shares in a number of different biotech companies in the hope that the winners will compensate for the losers.

Ultimately, it's down to the individual investor to do their homework. "It's a stock-picking environment," says Dr Pollard. "You've got to do your own research."

So, with that in mind, we've researched six of what we consider are the best-quality quoted biotech companies in the UK.


ARDANA - BUY

Unlike other companies on this list, Ardana is a relative newcomer to the sector. The Scottish biotech joined the main market in 2005, and focuses on the human reproductive health market, worth almost $26bn a year. It is well-funded and has a well-balanced product pipeline.

Ardana's most exciting product is Teverelix, which analysts think could be a blockbuster. It is under development as a drug for prostate cancer, prostate enlargement and endometriosis. Combined, these markets are worth up to $9bn a year in sales, and the company is busy conducting licensing negotiations with potential partners. The talks are taking longer than expected as new parties have entered the discussions, but chief executive Maureen Lindsay hopes to land a deal soon.

Ardana also has its own sales and marketing team, and currently sells Striant, a testosterone-replacement therapy, direct to specialist doctors. Other products are also due to be launched soon, too, including injectable ED product Invicorp, which targets patients who are unable to take other drugs due to heart problems. Invicorp should launch this year, while testosterone cream Testo is due for launch in 2007. In addition, in September Ardana raised £10m to fund development of growth hormone product GHS, and to launch Emselex, an overactive bladder drug in-licensed from Novartis.

[fickena] 16/11/2006 07:13

Title should be true today!:

Product Launch

RNS Number:1661M
Ardana PLC
16 November 2006

ARDANA ANNOUNCES UK LAUNCH OF EMSELEX(R)
FOR OVERACTIVE BLADDER


Edinburgh, UK, 16 November 2006L: Ardana plc (LSE:ARA), announces today that it
has commenced the marketing in the United Kingdom of Emselex(R), a once a day
treatment for symptoms of overactive bladder (OAB) in collaboration with
Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Limited ("Novartis").

Ardana will be responsible for the launch and ongoing sales and marketing of
Emselex(R) whilst Novartis will be responsible for distribution, medical and
pharmacovigilance activities. This follows the announcement on 20th September
2006 of an exclusive 10 year UK marketing and promotion agreement between Ardana
and Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Limited and a Placing and Open Offer raising
#11.0 million (gross), part of the net proceeds of which were to be used to
launch and promote this product.

The OAB market in the UK is currently estimated to be #82.1 million and is
growing at 14% per annum (IMS Health).

Dr. Maureen Lindsay, Chief Executive of Ardana, said:

"We are delighted to have launched Emselex(R) today as it is an important new
treatment option for patients who suffer from this distressing condition."

Emselex(R) (darifenacin hydrobromide) is an oral once-daily muscarinic M3
selective receptor antagonist (M3 SRA) for the treatment of OAB. Symptoms of OAB
include urinary urgency (a sudden and compelling desire to pass urine, which is
difficult to defer) with, or without, urge urinary incontinence (involuntary
leakage accompanied or immediately preceded by urgency), usually with urinary
frequency (voiding the bladder too often), and nocturia (waking at night one or
more times to void the bladder).

Emselex(R) works by selectively inhibiting the M3 receptor, the primary mediator
of detrusor contraction, whilst relatively sparing the M1 and M2 receptors that
are located in various body organs, including the brain and heart. Emselex(R)
has been shown to significantly reduce the number of weekly incontinence
episodes. Pooled data from Phase III studies showed that the incidence of
cardiovascular adverse events for Emselex(R) was low. Furthermore, a study in
elderly healthy volunteers indicated that Emselex(R) did not significantly
impair memory function.

In clinical trials involving more than 10,000 subjects and patients, Emselex(R)
has been shown to significantly improve all other key symptoms of OAB across a
range of pivotal endpoints. These include the number of times patients had to
visit the bathroom each day, frequency of urgency, severity of urgency and the
number of incontinence episodes leading to a change in clothing or pads.

Consistent with the pharmacological profile of Emselex(R) the most commonly
reported adverse events were dry mouth and constipation, but discontinuation
from treatment due to these adverse reactions was infrequent.

Antimuscarinic drugs are often used to treat patients who present with symptoms
of OAB, although other therapies such as bladder retraining may also be
effective.

For more information contact:

Ardana Financial Dynamics
Maureen Lindsay (corporate/financial media relations)
Tel: + 44 (0) 131 226 8550 Julia Phillips/John Gilbert
Tel: [phone]

[explorer88] 22/10/2006 12:00

Hi n_w_b

oh, yes - it was OMG - very nice rises from 12p to 36p - quite a bit more to come i reckon...

[n_w_b] 22/10/2006 06:59

Hi exp88,

SRF, wasn't it OMG? Should've stayed in a bit longer on the later.

Very well thanks, hope your doing well in the markets.

Just waiting for this baby to fly when it's Teverelix drugs report data/gets licensed within the next 6months and when it gets on peoples radar screens.

Too much potential here to look anywhere else in the small cap sector!

[explorer88] 21/10/2006 09:17

hi n_w_b

we haven't spoken for a while on the SRF thread - hope you're well...

i'm looking to invest in three small market cap. stocks (preferably under £10m) which have the potential to increase their market cap. tenfold in three years. i've identified one company, and am looking for two more - do you have any suggestions?

exp88

[fickena] 13/10/2006 12:26

Ardana CEO, CFO increase stakes in co

LONDON (AFX) - Ardana PLC said chief executive Maureen Lindsay and chief
financial officer Graham Lee increased their stakes in the company as it
admitted 9,585,380 new shares of 1 pence each to trading on the London Stock
Exchange's main market earlier today.
Lindsay bought 32,161 shares at 115 pence each increasing her stake to
218,699, or 0.34 pct of the issued share capital while Lee upped his stake by
8,620 to 58,620 shares or 0.09 pct.
[e-mail]
nes

[fickena] 21/9/2006 10:53

Excellent work n_w_b many thanks.

[mctmct] 21/9/2006 10:26

I'm taking up my full allowance at 115p, too. It's a useful discount (and no trading costs), and I was planning to top up.

mct

[n_w_b] 21/9/2006 07:44

Ardana sets sights on £11m shares placing

MARK SMITH September 21 2006

Ardana, the small-cap Scottish pharmaceutical firm focused on human reproductive health, said it plans to raise £11m before expenses in a placing and open offer of 9,585,380 new ordinary shares at 115p each.
The placing and open offer has been fully underwritten, Edinburgh-based company said.
Ardana said it will use around £5.7m to invest in the clinical development of its growth hormone Secretagogue in its first indication as a diagnostic and second indication Aids lipodystrophy.
Ardana said it will use around £4.2m to launch and promote Emselex in the UK, a product developed by Novartis for the treatment of overactive bladder conditions, for which Ardana has been granted sole and exclusive rights to launch and promote in the UK for 10 years.
Earlier this month, Ardana was granted a US patent covering the long-acting formulation of its drug Teverelix.
The drug is Ardana's lead development compound and is in phase II clinical trials for the treatment of both prostate cancer and benign prostatic hyperplasia, an enlarged prostate condition common in men aged 50 or more.
Prostate cancer is the most common type of cancer diagnosed in men in the US, after skin cancer.
It is also the fourth most-common cause of cancer-related deaths in men in northern Europe, and the market in treatment for prostate cancer is expected to be worth around £2.1bn by 2008.
Ardana is also conducting phase I studies for the Teverelix treatment of endometriosis, a painful female condition characterised by tissue that normally lines the uterus growing outside of it.
What makes Teverelix different is that it is able to raise or decrease testosterone levels through dosage, where as competitor drugs, claims Ardana, cut out testosterone production completely in the body, which often leads to further medical complications.
The drug is administered by injection into a muscle.
Shares in Ardana yesterday fell 1.25p to close at 125p.

[n_w_b] 21/9/2006 07:39

Ardana planning to raise further £10m

HAMISH RUTHERFORD

EDINBURGH Pharmaceutical company Ardana plans to raise almost £10 million in a share issue to spend on research and the launch of a new drug.

Yesterday officials said it had bought the exclusive UK rights for Emselex, a treatment for overactive bladders, from Novartis, for ten years which it would spend £4.2m launching and promoting. The UK market for the condition was more than £80m last year, with the drug claiming a large slice of the market in other countries.

Another £5.7m will be spent on clinical development of GHS for growth hormone deficiency.

"Ardana believes that GHS has the potential to be the first oral treatment in the growth hormone market and could capture a significant share of this market estimated to be worth $3.1 billion, if approved by authorities," the company said yesterday.

The proposal will be made at an EGM on 12 October, although institutional investors - holding more than 57 per cent of capital - have already given irrevocable undertakings to vote in favour.

The company said trading since 31 March was in line with expectations.

Shares closed down 1.5p on 125p yesterday, valuing the company at around £69m.

This article:

[n_w_b] 20/9/2006 09:14

Here's info on AIDS lipodystrophy:

People infected with HIV/AIDS are living longer and more productive lives. A large part of the reason is the introduction of medication combinations into standard HIV/AIDS care. But with the benefits of medications also comes some unforeseen problems. One such problem is fat redistribution syndrome or lipodystrophy. Lipodystrophy is characterized by sunken cheeks, thinning arms and legs, and fat accumulations in the abdomen, neck and the back of the neck.
Usually fat redistribution is not physically harmful to the person, although it can cause emotional consequences related to altered self image and appearance. Patients fear the physical manifestations of fat redistribution give them what is known as the "AIDS look". In some cases however, fat build-up in the neck and back of the head ("buffalo hump"), cause physical harm such as difficulty breathing, neck and back pain and headaches.

[n_w_b] 08/9/2006 05:13

Test results give Ardana a boost

SHARES in Ardana, the Edinburgh reproductive pharmaceutical company, rose 1.2 per cent to 125.5p last night after it received positive preliminary results from a phase-one study of the gonadotrophin releasing hormone antagonist, Teverelix LA, in healthy female subjects.

The company said additional data analysis is ongoing and a complete set of data is expected by the end of 2006. A phase-two study is planned to start also by the end of the year.

In a previous clinical study, Teverelix LA had been shown to reduce oestrogen levels rapidly.

This article:

[fickena] 07/9/2006 09:09

Research Update

RNS Number:6089I
Ardana PLC
07 September 2006

ARDANA ANNOUNCES PRELIMINARY POSITIVE PHASE I RESULTS OF TEVERELIX LA FOR THE
TREATMENT OF ENDOMETRIOSIS

Edinburgh, UK: 7 September 2006: Ardana plc (LSE:ARA), the pharmaceutical
company focused on improving human reproductive health, today announces
preliminary results of a Phase I study of the Gonadotrophin Releasing Hormone
(GnRH) Antagonist, Teverelix LA (Long Acting) in healthy female subjects.

Endometriosis arises in pre-menopausal woman when the lining of the womb
(endometrium) grows outside the uterus, often in the pelvic cavity. Symptoms
associated with endometriosis include cyclical or chronic pelvic pain, heavy
periods and infertility. It is well documented that endometriosis is a hormone
sensitive condition and a reduction in estrogen levels causes a shrinkage of the
endometriotic lesions and an improvement in symptoms. Current treatment options
include GnRH agonists. However this class of compounds is associated with side
effects, similar to menopausal symptoms, such as hot flushes, reduced libido and
loss of bone density, due to the reduction in estrogen to those levels seen in
post-menopausal women.

In a previous clinical study of two dose-regimens, different from those
investigated in this study; Teverelix LA has been shown to reduce estrogen
levels rapidly and in a dose-dependent manner.

Preliminary data from this Phase I, randomised, single-blind, placebo-controlled
study of a single subcutaneous injection of Teverelix LA, at one of two doses to
24 healthy female subjects, indicates that Teverelix LA can reduce estrogen
levels to a desired level at the lower end of the normal range which should help
to avoid menopausal symptoms. In this study estrogen levels were reduced to
average concentrations over a period of 8 weeks of 40.5 pg/ml and 49.0 pg/ml
respectively vs. 88.8 pg/ml for placebo.

The effect of Teverelix LA on certain bone absorption markers such as serum
telopeptides and urine deoxypyridinoline were also investigated in the study. On
the basis of the available data these markers appear unaffected by Teverelix
LA..

Additional data analysis is ongoing and a complete data set is expected by the
end of 2006.

This study provides data to support the further development of Teverelix LA in
endometriosis and a Phase II study is currently planned to start by the end of
2006.

Dr Maureen Lindsay, CEO of Ardana said "The results from this study confirm that
Teverelix LA is not only a potential treatment for male indications (prostate
cancer and benign prostate hyperplasia) for which we have previously reported
proof-of-concept Phase II results but is also a potential drug for female
indications that respond to oestrogen suppression, such as endometriosis and
eventually fibromyomas of the uterus, both conditions with an unmet medical
need."

It has been estimated that in 2005, there were approximately 17 million cases of
endometriosis in the seven major pharmaceutical markets (US, Japan, France,
Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) of which approximately 3.9 million cases were
diagnosed.

For more information contact:

Ardana Financial Dynamics
Maureen Lindsay (corporate/financial media relations)
Tel: + 44 (0) 131 226 8550 Julia Phillips/John Gilbert
Tel: [phone]

[n_w_b] 01/9/2006 12:50

Ardana granted US patent for Teverelix
September 01 2006

MARK SMITH


Ardana Bioscience, a small-cap Scottish pharmaceutical firm focused on human reproductive health, yesterday said it had been granted a US patent covering the long-acting formulation of its drug Teverelix.
The drug is Ardana's lead development compound and is in phase II clinical trials for the treatment of both prostate cancer and benign prostatic hyperplasa, an enlarged prostate condition common in men aged 50 or more.
Prostate cancer is the most common type of cancer diagnosed in men in the US, after skin cancer.
It is also the fourth most-common cause of cancer-related deaths in men in northern Europe, and the market in treatment for prostate cancer is expected to be worth around $4bn (£2.1bn) by 2008.
The Edinburgh-based company said it was also conducting phase I studies for the Teverelix treatment of endometriosis, a painful female condition characterised by tissue that normally lines the uterus growing outside of it.
Research has suggested that some 10% of women suffer from endometriosis, and that 30% of these develop fertility problems.
Meanwhile, the company said the patent is subject to a US patent term adjustment, which means that it is not due to expire in the US until April 2023.
What makes Teverelix different is that it is able to raise or decrease testosterone levels through dosage, where as competitor drugs, claims Ardana, cut out testosterone production completely in the body, which often leads to further medical complications.
The drug is administered by injection into a muscle. Shares in Ardana, whose chairman Simon Best is head of UK industry body BIA, yesterday edged up 0.8%, or 1p, to close at 123.5p.
Ardana Bioscience, a small-cap Scottish pharmaceutical firm focused on human reproductive health, yesterday said it had been granted a US patent covering the long-acting formulation of its drug Teverelix.
The drug is Ardana's lead development compound and is in phase II clinical trials for the treatment of both prostate cancer and benign prostatic hyperplasa, an enlarged prostate condition common in men aged 50 or more.
Prostate cancer is the most common type of cancer diagnosed in men in the US, after skin cancer.
It is also the fourth most-common cause of cancer-related deaths in men in northern Europe, and the market in treatment for prostate cancer is expected to be worth around $4bn (£2.1bn) by 2008.
The Edinburgh-based company said it was also conducting phase I studies for the Teverelix treatment of endometriosis, a painful female condition characterised by tissue that normally lines the uterus growing outside of it.
Research has suggested that some 10% of women suffer from endometriosis, and that 30% of these develop fertility problems.
Meanwhile, the company said the patent is subject to a US patent term adjustment, which means that it is not due to expire in the US until April 2023.
What makes Teverelix different is that it is able to raise or decrease testosterone levels through dosage, where as competitor drugs, claims Ardana, cut out testosterone production completely in the body, which often leads to further medical complications.
The drug is administered by injection into a muscle. Shares in Ardana, whose chairman Simon Best is head of UK industry body BIA, yesterday edged up 0.8%, or 1p, to close at 123.5p.
Ardana Bioscience, a small-cap Scottish pharmaceutical firm focused on human reproductive health, yesterday said it had been granted a US patent covering the long-acting formulation of its drug Teverelix.
The drug is Ardana's lead development compound and is in phase II clinical trials for the treatment of both prostate cancer and benign prostatic hyperplasa, an enlarged prostate condition common in men aged 50 or more.
Prostate cancer is the most common type of cancer diagnosed in men in the US, after skin cancer.
It is also the fourth most-common cause of cancer-related deaths in men in northern Europe, and the market in treatment for prostate cancer is expected to be worth around $4bn (£2.1bn) by 2008.
The Edinburgh-based company said it was also conducting phase I studies for the Teverelix treatment of endometriosis, a painful female condition characterised by tissue that normally lines the uterus growing outside of it.
Research has suggested that some 10% of women suffer from endometriosis, and that 30% of these develop fertility problems.
Meanwhile, the company said the patent is subject to a US patent term adjustment, which means that it is not due to expire in the US until April 2023.
What makes Teverelix different is that it is able to raise or decrease testosterone levels through dosage, where as competitor drugs, claims Ardana, cut out testosterone production completely in the body, which often leads to further medical complications.
The drug is administered by injection into a muscle. Shares in Ardana, whose chairman Simon Best is head of UK industry body BIA, yesterday edged up 0.8%, or 1p, to close at 123.5

[n_w_b] 31/8/2006 14:23

Current Teverelix trials ongoing with results due this year.

• ARD-0301-003 and -008. These Phase II trials in prostate cancer patients are looking at two different dosing regimes of Teverelix.

• ARD-0301-007. This trial is a Phase I single dose PK/PD study in normal and obese male subjects with prostate cancer in the US.

• ARD-0301-001. This is a Phase II trial looking at two different single doses of Teverelix in BPH patients. The patients will be
followed for 3 months.

• ARD-0301-002. This is the follow-on part of the above trial, giving the patients the same dose they received in 001, after they have
become non-responders.

• ARD-0301-006. Phase I PK study of single-dose (2 different doses) of Teverelix or placebo in women with endometriosis.

Another tick in the box for the list of potential partenrs, some ready to deal now and some that are waiting for the above results to come out.

[wiganer] 31/8/2006 10:59

Yup, still have my small upbet in place.

[fickena] 31/8/2006 10:41

Excellent news continues to flow and trades to boot.

Anyone still here?

[n_w_b] 28/7/2006 09:59

A few bits from Piper Jaffray's research note on July 13th

Product pipeline shows significant progress. The progress in Ardana's product
pipeline has been significant during the past 12 months, with the most important
development being the Phase II data from Teverelix and regulatory clarity on the
next steps in prostate cancer and BPH - with the timelines on the potential launch
for the BPH indication brought forward by 2 years from 2012 to 2010.
Strong news flow expected. Ardana is moving into a period of very strong news
flow, with product launches, late stage clinical data and potential deals both on the
out-licensing and in-licensing front. We believe that the majority of this news will
be positive and should help close at least some of the chasm that exists between our
estimate of the company's worth (EV of £227.5m, $421m) and the value ascribed to
it by the market (EV of £50m, $89m).
Sufficient cash to H1-08, without any licensing deals. We have updated our
forecasts to take account of the full year results to 31 March 2006 and used this
opportunity to tweak our sales forecasts to reflect the slightly later impact of the
European launch of Striant. Ardana's cash of £19.1m at YE-06 (March) is sufficient
to take the company through to fiscal H1-08. It is important to note that our
forecasts do not include any upfront/milestone payments associated with licensing
deals.
Change in price target methodology. We have updated our discount rate
methodology to take account of the increased risk free rate and equity risk
premium. We are also using different betas depending on the stage of development
of the company. Our new price target methodology is described in full in this note.
Our new DCF-based 12 month price target is 298p.

New price target
We are expecting a lot of news from Ardana over the next 12 months. This includes the conclusion of the main Phase IIb programme
for Teverelix, allowing the product to move into Phase III in 2007, the start and completion of the Phase III trial for Testo-Cream, the
launch of Invicorp and the start of Phase II trials with EP1572. We believe the chances of failure on all these fronts is minimal.
Building these changes into our model lifts our NPV to £328.6m, i.e. 591.4p per share (Exhibit 7). This represents a 172p upside
potential on our current DCF calculation and, based on the VWAP15 of 125.9p, would suggest a price target of 297.9p. This still
leaves more upside from the potential impact of licensing news. However, as none of the original VC backers have yet reduced their
stakes in the company, we believe that significant share price appreciation is likely to be met with some selling pressure from VCs. To
arrive at an estimate of the price at which VCs may be happy to sell, we have looked at the recent example of Vectura. Vectura priced
its June 2004 IPO at 56p, giving it a valuation which, similar to Ardana (IPO price 128p), did not provide a significant uplift on the
last VC post-money valuation. The majority of the VC selling on Vectura came at around 85p and 125p, i.e. 52% and 100% above the
IPO price. Thus, we believe it is unlikely that VC selling pressure will materialise until Ardana's stock is well over 200p.

At the analyst presentation, Ardana also discussed a potential product in-licensing
opportunity with a global pharmaceutical company. Although not many details are available yet, the company did indicate that, should
the deal be completed, it will involve the UK rights to an approved product, which has excellent synergies with its current portfolio,
and could be launched by the end of the year. As the deal has not yet been completed, we have not factored in any revenues from this
product. Beyond the changes mentioned above, we have not changed our models.

Licensing discussions ongoing
Ardana has been looking at various partnering options for Teverlix over the past 9 months. We understand there are parties interested
in licensing the product prior to the release of any further data and there are those that would rather wait until after the ongoing Phase
IIs report, i.e. look to sign a deal in H1-07 rather than H2-06. Also, the company has announced that there have been two late entries
into the fray, both of which, Ardana believes, would be excellent partners. We continue to believe that Teverelix ticks all the necessary
boxes to make it a highly desirable product and think that the probability of licensing deal in 2006 is quite high:

EP 01572-Growth Hormone Secretagogue

We believe that EP 01572 has significant sales potential and could be the subject of a licensing deal sooner rather than later.


What about the US market?
We believe Ardana has a number of ways for building its US operations, given that it has two products in relatively late stage of
development (Testo Cream and Teverelix) which could be on the market in 2008 and 2009, respectively. These options are:
• Retain US co-marketing rights for some of the indications of Teverelix. Use the upfront payments and milestones to build a small
specialty sales force.
• Do a licensing deal where the partner would pay for a sales force which will co-market Teverelix, with a structure similar to the deal
between Endo and Vernalis. This sales force can then market Testo Cream.
• Partner/merge/acquire a small US company of similar size which has a complementary business model and a small niche sales force.
We believe that there are a number of such potential opportunities in the US. This sales force can then be leveraged in a
co-marketing deal for Teverelix.

[entj] 18/7/2006 15:21

n_w_b - good postings, thanks.
I have 1st Aug as an expected reporting date.
Do you think we will hear anything new by then?