Anglo Asian Mining Takeover Rumours (AAZ)

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Anglo Asian Mining Takeover Price

Anglo Asian Mining Takeover Forum Posts

Could it be that consultant is valuing psa for AG should there be a merger/takeover with/by Aaz. As I remember Aaz requested information on Russian data outside of its contract areas. Possibilities of deposits crossing CA boundaries have been discussed allowing rights to mining such deposits outside of boundaries. Any conversation re tax has to be good and favourable hopefully. Sub soil...not even a guess!!
Patience needed as always. The single biggest news event which might come in the next couple of years would be a material extension of the PSA. This would be bigger than any resources/reserves upgrade. Even if it means the annual cost is slightly more for AAZ, it would be company-making news. An extension to 25+ years would open the possibility of a takeover by a major. Can't see that happening as things are now, no matter how many billions of $ of gold & copper we're sitting on. I'm sure it's in hand. And I expect we'll be bought sometime in the future at multiples of today's valuation.
sportbilly - I believe you are wrong in your assertions. Directors cannot buy if they are in possession of material inside information. The key word here is material. Knowledge of what’s happening with the PSA would be material. Knowledge of a takeover approach/discussions would be material. Knowledge of an imminent bid for a takeover target would be material. Takeovers are usually in the works for 3-9 months before they result in a firm bid (which is when these things are generally announced to the market).
closed period is only post financial close and pre results... Directors are generally in possession of knowledge shareholders aren't just be doing their job. not a valid excuse for not buying imo, and they are NOT in a takeover situation
Bill "takeover" comment will be brought into play there imo as a reason they aren't how many shares does Bill own out of interest?
I think Bill's "takeover" comment was a get-out-clause to avoid answering awkward questions.
mf, I suspect the share price would be much higher as these things tend to leak, but the company at this miserly valuation does look like a sitting duck for a takeover especially if the reserves are significantly extended by current exploration. AAZ is a plug and play money machine, but perhaps currently too small to attract the heavy hitters unless much larger reserves can be demonstrated?
Anyone know if there is any chance that AAZ has been approached by a major, government are looking at PSA as condition precedent, which explains Bills “takeover” comment? Just thinking aloud.
Wan as my thoughts go it could be a Takeover by MNOD. Why,may you ask? The 2018 drilling bulk samples are with Gipronickel. Who is Gipronickel? It is a subsidry of Norinickel MNOD. They would know what the samples are. LOL,I maybe wrong but something in my head tells me,no, I am thinking the right way. I will let you ponder over it. I think mother Russia wants to keep Nickel as a strategic mineral as such and we will be well rewarded. They would not like compition to MNOD from AMC possible J/V with a Chinese outfit etc. AMC had a MOU with Chines Jinchuan some years ago. LOL what a game this is, eh' 😉Wanobi??😎 ATB.
My favourite quote ‘Gold in quartz veins is often in free gold form, which would contribute to the gold production of AIMC should the discovery provide sufficient down dip continuity to develop resourced and onward to reserves. Finds like these inspire the team to continue pushing the exploration with the aim to increase production, extending mine life and generate shareholder benefit’ I think it’s fair to say we have been blown away today, this pretty much solves the LOM issue and there’s so much more to come it seems. One thing is that a takeover bid could come anytime and more so now that they have found more gold, if the government wanted a bargain now would be the time, all IMO of course.
Wow!! Just wow, ok I wasn’t expecting that, 2 new gold discoveries !!! They are shallow and close to the mine ? I wonder how much gold is actually here by the sounds of the RNS it is a lot !!, I wonder what next years production forecast is going to be if we get these online ? OMG! £2 easy, I wonder how quick a takeover is coming ? AAZ proving up so it gets fair value, £4 should be fair considering all this gold!
After being here for many years, I think at what we know currently we are hugely undervalued, not much of extra mine life is baked in at all, and this is what is going to either drive us or plummet us, the exploration results need to show us shareholders that our future life is secured which I am confident we will do, but I can never be sure. If we do get any whiff that AAZ have found a huge amount of extra resources this will light a fire and these prices will be history, I just hope that the time delay for any update is because they have so much data but time will tell. We should be around £1.50-£1.60 as fair value with our current production and assets, the chance of any takeover could come at any time, therefore I am a buyer at these prices as I feel we are extremely undervalued.
I know that a lot dividend money coming this Thursday is going to be reinvested. Won’t be surprised if we see £1.60 levels just on the basis of this alone. Any RNS with any increase of mine life will definitely take us beyond £2 and this could come anytime. Peoples selling behaviour confuse especially when our potential is huge. Any takeover RNS with any offer will also increase share price depending on what offer is presented. However I realise that there are risks always present in any kind of share and company. Therefore let us see what the end of the week gives us.
This to me looks like the company trying to prove up the resources of what they to then get the best value for a takeover. This share price action is extremely strange so therefore something is going on. Those that have held out are in a good position and those that have sold will want to get back in. £4 takeover of our PSA coming IMO
crazycoops yes, I don't know why I did not think of it before it fits the facts better than a takeover and the actions of AAZ recently. That would be a nice solid base for the company if that got extended.
In my experience of Azeri PSA agreements extensions are given, for a consideration of some sort off course, BP got them for oil and gas field they have out there when it became clear they would not continue developing the field if not. I don’t see this as being a major issue. This would be a more logical reason for government to speak to the PSA specialist lawyers instead of a takeover. DYOR
It is looking like we will not move past the recent highs of 170 until the company proves up some more, substantial, resource imho. The speculative news surrounding the government, and takeover chat hasn't been good for us but now that we've dropped back a fair bit nothing is in the price for that. If it is still business as usual then now is a good buying opportunity imho. Nothing has changed except sentiment. We know there is a shit load of gold in those hills so exploration remains the key. If they can upgrade by 500,000 oz jorc what would that do for the share price? What about another 1 millom ozs within 24 months.? If there is even a fraction of what the Russians thought then surely that merits a substantially higher rating!
lefrene, officially only if they take 3% or more...otherwise they could remain a 2.xx% lurker. Official 'takeover' re the PSA news of course would have dropped this threshold down to 1% which would have shed more light on the holdings and the underlying shareholders
This whole Azeri press leak, subsequent RNS from AAZ and Bill's comment that he was subject to the Takeover Code is creating a 'false market' in Anglo Asian. All this uncertainty needs addressing!
donald, I think you're spot on there..Bill has used it as a cover for not saying anything. We are not in a formal takeover situation...hence 'legally' Directors could purchase.
The more I think, the more I suspect that this ends with a clean takeover. For the first time in a decade the company have started referencing the original Behre Dolbear report. They have enough to keep exploring and producing for a generation. The question is now about how much the Azeris want to accelerate progress imo. All the data is just building up the picture so they know how much they are buying...and how much they will need to pay.
I don’t think this ever was a takeover situation, else the company would have announced it and we would have had daily updates from any institutions. I can only think Bill was advised to say that as an excuse for not being able to say anything about the PSA discussions. But perhaps it is something to ask formally
I thought there was a limit to how long a company could be under the takeover code before the acquiring company has to show their hand. The present situation kind of created a 'false market' in AAZ which has now deflated.
I’m not sure about the interest in other countries. I suspect the Azeri government want to keep the expertise of AAZ within the country. So it could be speaking to foreign governments is an insurance policy, in the event that a full takeover doesn’t happen. From what I know of the Azeri leader, he will want Ordubad to be developed as a priority, quickly and efficiently. In many ways, the cleanest solution seems like a takeover of AAZ by Azergold, with the management of AAZ put in charge of the new merged entity. But by paying dividends and negotiating with other governments the AAZ board are making a clear statement that if Azerbaijan want to get all of the benefit of the resource and all of the focus of the company, they will have to pay for it. Or am I barking up the wrong tree?
We’ve all been saying it for weeks: the PSA, life of mine, new mines in Azerbaijan and possibly elsewhere and exploration news are what will drive the SP forward. I suspect the PSA negotiations may be aligned with the others. So we need patience. It is quite possible that we wake up tomorrow with a takeover that gives shareholders a lot of money and leaves AAZ in charge of all mining in Azerbaijan.
I don't think AAZ/Bill has ever really said they are in a takeover situation,,, I think they just RNS'd a standard TO rules type statement to cover the PSA discussion, if there are indeed any PSA discussions happening... Please, anyone, correct me if I am mistaken on any of this, thanx.... all we know is that a lawyer who is a specialist in PSA's has been engaged by AZERGOV to look at the 'buying & selling' of the PSA,,, I think !! ??? maybe those words 'buying & selling' should really have said renegotiation of the PSA,,,, and maybe that's happening because of the new resource/LOM this is all speculation,,, but perhaps the next RNS will show a massive resource update combined with increased LOM together with a new PSA which I'm guessing will be at a higher % than now..... But, that may not matter at all if the update & LOM are substantial…. who knows SB,,, I certainly don't... GLA Cheers Wan :-)
Wan, Quite possibly - if they can renegotiate the PSA with the Govt to get similar terms as they have currently but get agreement to extend the LOM to industry norm 10 years, then hopefully we can attract more investors to the show. Still slightly unsure about how/why Bill refers to the news as Takeover worthy - there has been no formal recognition from the LSE on this, and no TR1 notifications etc as you'd expect under T/O conditions. Another one which Proactive would be good to ask Bill (if they do their regular interview)
Looking like a bunch of selling 'before the news', yet no buying response, which is a tad off putting. Doesn't imbue me with a feeling these Q3s will be as well received as they will merit. Yet I put these feelings aside, not wishing them to colour my judgement, and bought jut 2k more for tad over 138p, reflecting this is about 40p below the very top buy price, several weeks back now. Doesn't seem to me to be anything in the price for a takeover now. I think that something nearer 200p can readily be achieved, if not next few months then well within next 2 years, even if POG doesn't go higher than $1550 or even $1400 av. for 2020. This will depend though upon good exploration results, at least a few years on mine life + a decent substitute for Ugur imho, within this timeframe. Also, the cash build continuing at H1 rate - or better; dividends growing pro rata will boost further. Takeover or whatever is something extra.
Without proposing any other explanation for the drop? There doesnt need to be a definitive reason does there? Its perfectly normal for a share to fluctuate up and down with buys/sells/sentiment etc without anything changing. Are you nervous as this is a larger fluctuation than you get with a FTSE100 co? You seem sensible enough but seem to be worrying about stuff you know deep down is irrational. Its a small illiquid stock. Movements up and down are exaggerated. With or without news. As for the news of a takeover being rumour, well yes and no. The company has confirmed it is talking to a variety of companies/ bodies but clearly no confirmation of any deal yet. You do realise you wouldnt even be able to buy a house in the timescale so far? Never mind a 150m+ co Edit: sorry removed a variety of punctuation from my post as it�s gone wappy
This board has sparked into life this morning. FWIW, I have increased my AAZ holding by 10% this week - from 30% to 33% portfolio weighting on the basis that when it is raining gold, put out a bucket, not a thimble. The key aspect for me is that AAZ are sitting on a massive resource, possibly one of world class importance - a possible “giant” discovery according to the Hardman analyst (there have only been around 20 such discoveries in the last 50 years). I have been invested in the company long enough to know that I trust management to maximise this discovery to the benefit of shareholders - what form that takes (takeover, renegotiated PSA etc.) I have no clue but I suspect it won’t be long until we find out. “Take your time because we are in a hurry”
Kloster65 I am very balanced but have got tired of all the 'buy on the dips', 'everything is fine' posts if its fine why has it dropped? I am suggesting the obvious lack of news on a takeover, that was only a rumor to start with, plus the decay from highs in the POG is causing the drop. I am not sure why people are trying to rebut that without proposing any other explanation for this drop. I am sticking with the company, not unhappy, as I believe the POG will rise again and that is why I am invested solid company good management etc therefore the main variable is the POG. Posters avoiding the fact the share price has fallen are avoiding reality and being rather bullish I am proposing the obvious bear points. This is how I invested in oil, buying oil and oil related companies on low oil price and ride them up. Not buying more here as I am so overweight its ridiculous.
I think we are just drifting a little but at any time there there could be an announcement relating to the takeover/merger or indeed any other deal that they could be looking at, the ever growing cash pile and eagerness of the local banks to lend has to have them keen to do something to expand, listed exploration assets are so cheap at the moment that there have to be some very decent deals out there for cashed up smart operators, the original plan was to get production up to 250k oz, that should still be the dream.
Donald_pond I agree no one knows what to make of the takeover rumor but as time goes on the rumor loses power surely? No news is not good news. Regards the AAZ management working at Azergold I don�t see that what�s in it for them, they are building a company here they are not young either so why become government employees? I suggest its more likely they will move on if there is a takeover.
Bazboa, hopefully - although with Bill defining the PSA rns as 'takeover code' , the Directors and large holders, if subject to any form of NDA cannot re-invest - not that they did to a notifiable level from previous dividends To buy 20,000 shares from a re-invested dividend requires a 982k reinvested pi funds aren't going to amount to much unfortunately as a lot will simply take and bank the cash
Share price was 140 and price of gold 1500 on August 20, since then the POG went up to 1550 and down to 1460, and Bill said the company has been selling gold when the price is above 1500 and not bothering when it is below. The truth is, nobody knows what to make of the PSA announcement, as everyone knows that AAZ is a better run outfit than Azergold, and so a deal where the government buys AAZ and gives it to Azergold, which is the natural “takeover”, doesn’t work. Buying AAZ and putting the management team in charge of a merged entity might be better for Azerbaijan, but there are so many options that it isn’t a typical situation.
@pogue: oh absolutely agree it spiked on the back of takeover news - no one is avoiding facts. i am merely stating the current sp is not taking into account "other prospects" and i may be wrong and the market may not agree, that is a different story. i know hardman thought the same thinking 146p was the tp with no extension of mine life and POG quite a bit below the current levels.
Doc_oj Did you notice the price spike around �1.40 on the rumour of takeover? Also have a look at the gold chart it is down from a recent high, so is AAZ. Avoiding facts does not make you money.
doc-jo, I agree I see a very efficient miner with whopping fat margins at a bargain price, the possible value from discoveries or a takeover seem to be in for free.
yep - my fear is that with Bill affirming the PSA rns as bringing them under the Takeover Code, any news now of these talks ending will result in a significant mark down, akin to the buyer walking away. Markets can be irrational and whilst we are at the price pre-PSA news, there will still be a reaction Gold back up over $1500 this am...
Bill did say that the company was in a takeover situation and subject to the rules on that, but that can’t be right as they would surely have to announce it formally. All a bit odd really. There is so much that could be happening: having made real progress on proving up assets there might be discussions about the tax and royalty rates and also the time length of the PSA in order to make it viable to start proper production in Ordubad, for example.
Yes, though he is a very cautious guy, he said he had been advised that he couldn’t say anything about the PSA as they were in a takeover situation under the rules. I’m not sure what to make of that either!
Bill is clear that he thinks AAZ is in a takeover scenario and is bound by the takeover rules. I think that is the issue with the PSA.
I’m sure the results anticipated some exploration results to be received in Q3. Plus we have the news covered in the Azeri press and whatever it is that in the boards view brings us into the realm of the takeover panel. And yet. Tumbleweed...
aha,, thanx GG, I missed that, doh Wan.... that was in the PI interview? I shall relisten,,,, interesting words 'takeover'.... :-) Thanx Cheers Wan :-)
Wan, Bill stated categorically that he was unable to say ANYTHING regarding discussions with Azeri government, quoting the takeover code!
Great post @Mattjos all mine are in Share/ISAs so think I'm ok with regards to CGtax but nice of you to point this out. What are your time frames though for the share prices that you quoted ? Are these current prices that you think that we are worth right now or does the share price you quote include any anticipated potential AZ government investment/takeover ? Hope this makes sense cheers
Wan, I would invest half in MNOD,it is giving a very good dividend, safe as any share can be, and will continue to go up in price. Nickel is the metal that this world is going to need for the EV's. I will continue to hold AMC unless there is a takeover there. Nickel has gone up a lot in value this year then Gold has. I would hold the rest in cash for a period of time until the Brexit saga is sorted out,it all depends how the UK Market behaves when Brexit happens. A fall in the Market will give many bargains in the FTSE Co's. I would still be looking for a decent safe Gold miner in the mean time. I don't keep a lot of cash as fiat currency can only go down in value IMO.
Thanks for your detailed views JB, much appreciated. It is definitely true that many successful individuals seem to keep their hunger, despite advancing years, and years of experience/garned knowledge can be priceless. And of course, once successful, many businessmen find it impossible to ‘’step back’’. I can only surmise that it’s the thrill of the ‘’chase’’ which gives them this strong motivation and purpose to continue. I find the idea of AAZ effectively taking over AG with our mgt parachuted in to run the show quite appealing. Would imagine for political reasons it be organised as an AG takeover bid, and keeping the AG company name? The main macro fly in the ointment AFAICS is that the ‘’The Fall’’ looms large on the horizon. Hopefully, if it is to strike this year, it waits until we have more clarity re AAZ's future shape.
Good morning guys. Wan, I will try and explain a discovery Co. If a company is in a safe country and they have a discovery of $xxxxx amount, they are usually paid 2% of the said discovery on a takeover.. On the other hand if it is in a country like Congo the get 1%.Not a safe place to do business. So it matters a lot on the JORC,d proven resource. So a lot depends on what AAZ proves with their drilling going on right now. Also the indicated resource has a value as well. There are far too many parts to AAZ. It is not a discovery Co. it is a mining operation. What value would you put on that ? So you have to value AAZ currently plus what they discover. There is also value to the workforce they have trained. I am very sure Reza knows how to get the best value from the Azari. Gov. I am sitting on my hands right now and plan to do nothing until the fat lady sings.
JB, If I'm reading you right you are confident that come what may, mid tier status will still be pursued post PSA sale, should it happen. Interested if you have any inkling on how the funds received would be utilised, ie. possible takeover candidates and which locals might be being considered. A part special div would also be very nice, if appropriate.
Remember that the valuation has never seemed to include £100m of plant and £30m of gold sludge-that should be picked up in the appointed valuation as it will be a root and branch appraisal; that said, I don't see it taking too long, weeks rather than months Jbravo2 totally agree ref Terropol and I am going to buy some EJ glasses for riding😂 You'd think this is going to be a reverse takeover into Azergold with Reza and selected members running the new enlarged corporation
LLB Adding to all the good reasons to play it 'fair' above, the Gov't will wish to maintain goodwill and trust with the AAZ Directors. Apart from a smooth handover and best endeavours/cares-for the assets over the interim, it may well be the AAZ team will be asked to stay on to operate the show post takeover.
Still no new target price from SPA? Was their last one 96p or 97p? Anyone know a house broker whose target is a 33% drop?!!! Very pleased with today's reaction. Initially I wasn't sure what to make of the article. Were the Azeri government looking to grab back their resources by foul means (lawyers/consultants looking at every piece of paperwork, trying to find reason to cancel PSA), or were they looking for a valuation to buy out AAZ's share? Best outcome for us would be no takeover offer yet. Get 2019's and 2020's accounts published (both should be big improvements on 2018's record year). Find out exactly what we're sitting on. Put the Azeri assets up for sale.
I only seem to post messages when I feel the bullishness of posters is exceeding our current knowledge. But I am a shareholder so that shows where my interest lies. Is the excitement of a take-over misplaced? The RNS text states, "notes the recent press report regarding the Ministry of Economy of Azerbaijan engaging a consultant to advise on a possible transaction with R.V. Investment Group Services" Perhaps this is not about a takeover but a PSA-extension to cover areas the government deem not contiguous with the limits of the current PSA, or a new PSA entirely. (Matt - our posts coincide.)
Wan, stop over thinking, you will have little choice on any takeover, the board have a massive majority and that’s why it won’t be a cheap low ball take out of “ourâ€￾ ( speaking as a shareholder) , assets. Just enjoy the ride, if you can’t enjoy it and fear it, you need to consider the alternative ;)
What i find strange is surely if the government wanted to buy this on the cheap then it would have bought as many shares as it could in the open market first and then made a takeover . Why leak what their intentions are to the press ? Surely this will raise the price it will ultimately have to pay ?
The longer the company is under takeover speculation the higher the price may go I suggest.
It is pure coincidence that last week I posted that we were at a valuation where a takeover at a decent premium might be acceptable. If that’s the way this ends so be it, but it needs to be a fair offer
Crikey, is that a takeover proposal?
I know we have dismissed it before, but perhaps we are now approaching the sort of SP where a takeover bid might be welcomed? £3/4, given the size of directors holdings and their age...
Laurence beware there are internal issues that drive oil price as well, if Venezuela sorts itself out and/or Iran reaches agreement with the aforementioned Trump then oversupply will probably happen. Something to think about nearer the time, buying oil now means you are betting nothing changes in oil while you wait for the China trade agreement. I still have holdings in 2 oil based companies, HUR whose share price rose yesterday as its price rerating will be mainly due to results with the drill bit and then a takeover plus PFC which is a contractor in the sector which designs, builds commissions etc oil infrastructure but will rerate on a positive result on a SFO investigation, though in the meantime it follows the oil price and pays a divi so both are not just a pure oil price play. DYOR
Thanks Wan First post here.................always followed this BB with the link to AAZ. Apologies but some good fellow recommended on this thread GENL and RRE. Both of which I invested in, subsequent to my own research. After 5 months, RRE resumes trading........£8 to ??? Independent analysis suggest £37. Its a buy below £18 following reverse takeover of Marathon :)
I guess the question is how to currently assign a value to the rns this morning? SPangle may well just put a "under review" comment until such time as grades and quantities etc are firmed up by the company It's certainly looking as the best AIM opportunity at the moment re value add and dividend income....a takeover approach for many on here might be their only (logical) sell point!
cmb - There is a write up on Proactive Investors today about AMC. Why?? No idea :-) Just have a little read of it. They have not included the 2018 Drilling Results in the PFS yet. Nor given them to the PI's either !! Something is brewing there for sure IMO. I think you are most probably correct, something is brewing,,,,, could they be under NDA as part of a acquisition/takeover process or something similar?? maybe, just maybe..... PS... you are most welcome to post your thoughts on any stock here, that's what this thread is about.... and I know you are not ramping AMC, I know you genuinely believe in its potential and that something very, very positive for the share price is coming very soon... Cheers Wan :-)
When it comes to valuaing a company, there are various valuation methods that are used. The 3 main ones are probably Assets, P/E ratio and DCF. Value of assets May be used for e.g. a takeover bid, if bidder thought tangible assets could be sold quickly for more than the current value of the company, its market capital. P/E ratio Price / Earnings ratio. Probably the most commonly used method used by the average investor. DCF Discounted Cash Flow. You would need some knowledge of accounting to do this. You would need to build a financial model in a spreadsheet, then decide on a discount rate. Current PE ratio and a simplistic estimate of a likely PE over the next few years is where I would suggest you start your research, if you are interested. In the future if you decide to take more interest in the financials you may one day attempt a DCF model.
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