1. Elliott Investing have a $1 billion stake in Anglo.
2. Elliot specialises in gingering up sleepy managements.
3. Wanblad is under pressure to do something quickly.
4. The easiest and quickest thing to get rid of is the Australian
metallurgical coal. Attractive with no political strings attached, unlike
the diamonds, platinum and fertiliser.
5. The American coal mining giant Peabody has expressed interest
previously.
6. The Australian coal is also of interest to BHP who mine in the same area.
7. Elliot have a stake in both Peabody and BHP.
8. Elliot don't mess about and they didn't buy 5% of Anglo with a view to
losing money. You wouldn't want Elliott as a shareholder.
9. The share price has been rising.
Just saying!
But what the hell do I know, except that Anglo looks like a good bet however it turns out. |
 I tried to post a video from the IG Index site but I couldn't get it to work, presumably because it is protected in some way.
The gist was that because it takes about 16 years to develop a copper mine into production the million tons per year of copper from Anglo are still very attractive to BHP (and others), so BHP could be back in five months time, especially as the rationalising measures which Anglo are taking will make a takeover simpler and more attractive. The interviewee also thought that five to ten percent on the last offer price wouldn't be off putting for BHP, what they want is the ore. We also should remember that if there is another bid BHP are allowed to get back in immediately.
The multi-analyst consensus target is for about £29 pounds per share, so presumably they are expecting the takeover to resume or Anglo to be successful in boosting the share price, which I personally am doubtful about, but then I'm a pessimistic old sod.
But you all know this already, don't you? Perhaps somebody doesn't. |
Minors are slowly but surely gradually heading all way down back to where they were before the bidding hype. |
Probably why Anglo went up today, (from Bloomberg.)
South African stocks rallied and the rand gained, defying the global selloff in risk assets, as investors cheered an agreement between rival political parties to back the reelection of Cyril Ramaphosa as president.
The deal sets the stage for a broad government alliance led by the African National Congress and the business-friendly Democratic Alliance, following an election in which the ANC lost its outright majority for the first time since 1994.
“Such a coalition would be market-friendly and rand-positive,”; said Yeon Jin Kim, an emerging-market analyst at Credit Agricole, in a note to clients. “In the medium term, we believe there could be more upside for the rand, provided key reforms are announced and implemented.”
The FTSE JSE Africa All Share Index climbed as much as 1.6%, the most in seven weeks, before paring the advance. A gauge of banking stocks rallied the most in almost four years to a record high.
The rand gained 0.5% to 18.3513 per dollar as of 1:02 p.m. in Johannesburg, the only emerging-market currency to rise on the day among 24 monitored by Bloomberg. The rand is up 3% this week compared with a 0.4% decline for the MSCI EM Currency Index.
The ANC, which has held power since apartheid ended in 1994, invited all the country’s main parties to join a so-called government of national unity. Former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party, or MKP, and the Economic Freedom Fighters, — both of which favor land expropriation and the nationalization of mines and banks — declined to participate. |
Interesting! |
Day after day the uncrossing trade and the trades in auction are buys at more than the 4:30 PM closing price.
I take this as a likely sign of stake building in a company that is in play or confidence that the price will rise. I doubt that they are just late reported trades, it's happening too frequently for that.
I remain long. |
Nice to have confirmation that things are possibly progressing behind the scenes. |
Very nice. Relevance to this thread ? |
Also, "A mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing by the side of it."
Mark Twain, who was very bitter about the mining industry since he and a friend prospecting in Nevada found a huge silver deposit. They then found that they hadn't filed the claim properly and were cheated out of it.
Not a lot of people know that! - Michael Caine. |
Sadly I am an ex Sirius holder and came to AA to follow Woodsmith and copper. I know that a mine is a hole in the ground into which you pour money (Twain) but the potential for an organic fertiliser asset with resources for over a century of production in a world crying out for more efficient and eco sensitive techniques is worth the short term cost. Isn't this what markets are for, to fund the capital requirements for long term investment and prolonged profit? In 50 years time investors will still be raking it in. Let's get it done! |
I lasted five minutes, Cobourg
A bunch of Aussies joshing it up imagining they're doing a XXXX ad didn't inspire much confidence in what might follow in the remaining 55 minutes.
Time for the shepherd's crook! |
Our intern Matt “Hobbsy” Hobbs has gone deep into the asset almost at the centre of the biggest mining M&A deal of the decade – Woodsmith. If you haven’t heard of it, we don’t blame you. This is a giant mining project currently under construction in the UK and it has been a giant plague within Anglo American’s portfolio.
Hobbsy unpacks the colourful history of the project and evaluates its prospects here in 2024. Spoiler, we aren’t awfully positive on its outlook despite US$5 billion being sunk to date
.........................................................................
Three scruffy, foul mouthed young Australian mining engineers who have a very high opinion of themselves and seem to believe they know everything without needing to go within 12,000 miles of the project, do a sneering hatchet job on Woodsmith.
I'm no fan of Woodsmith myself, in fact I don't think Anglo should ever have got involved in it, but I would prefer a more balanced and mature analysis from someone I could believe in. I think I wasted an hour of my life watching it, but feel free. |
Anyone see the money of mine podcast where they did a deep dive on Woodsmith? They weren't impressed to put it mildly ! |
Does anyone know which of the 4 big miners have the biggest exposure to Copper ? I am very bullish on copper price |
Glencore would love AA. Copper but not at any price they stil have Teck to deal with which is a better option,may offer £25bln for whole company ot £15-£18 for copper alone which won’t please AA holders |
Not invested.Waiting for an entry point.Anglo missed the opportunity to sell to BHP.Now it has to sell assets BHP did not want.Looks as it is going to drop to £20 but may be not £15 like last time.I don't see another bid is coming any time soon for Anglo Glen has to complete the Teck coal deal before it can even consider another bid more likely Glen buy asset of interest that Anglo wants to get rid off. |
Posted by sundial1 on the GLEN thread
Good luck all 👍🏻 |
More offers coming here and the board deserve everything they get. |
Cobourg1, wise words. I really enjoyed trading Anglo when it was between £16 and £20 but it now seems difficult to see any upturn without a firm offer regardless of the managements comments regarding a standalone business producing better returns for shareholders. The dividend will be appreciated. I don't need to sell but there are better opportunities to be had with the funds available. I will wait and see and try not to cringe every time I see the latest share price! |
I do hope management have woken up and can deliver - very quickly - a suitable return to shareholders after rejecting BHP's offer. The share price is crashing (as are my pound notes wrapped up in this!) whilst BHP is now rising. A current return on today's price of about 8% is required. Personally I can't see it and am tempted to take my losses and go elsewhere. How long does one wait? |
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