Altitude Share Discussion Threads

[pietradura] 12/9/2018 15:53

Altitude Group plc (AIM: ALT), the operator of a leading marketplace for personalised products, announces that it will publish its interim results for the six month period to 30 June 2018 ("Interim Results") on 25 September 2018. Further to the update in relationship to supplier agreements set out below, the Company will provide a full and detailed update on the positive progress being made in relation to both of the Group's white label ChannlPro platforms (AIMPro and Think Promo Now) at the time of the interim results.

[john09] 12/9/2018 15:49

This was always going to happen. And will happen each trading day this week and next I think

[pietradura] 12/9/2018 15:45

Wonder if there is news tomorrow?

[gregpeck7] 12/9/2018 15:09

Idp taking off. Just bringing it to everyone's attention. Thanks for the spam.

[onjohn] 12/9/2018 14:49

What do we want?

140p

When do we want it?

RiGhT NOW!!

[onjohn] 12/9/2018 14:45

I SUSPECT THIS MIGHT DOUBLE THIS MONTH

[onjohn] 12/9/2018 14:44

HORNTASTIC CHART

[opodio] 12/9/2018 14:28

the kraken awakes mates

[sheep_herder] 11/9/2018 10:32

topper, how much cash do you think they need to reinvest? :-) It's going to look like a rap video in head office with Martin flicking 100 dollar bills off his stack.

[topperlaser1] 11/9/2018 09:34

Think that is correct - personally think you can not ignore UK as smaller opportunity than US but similar dynamics (albeit with ADP added) I have a little Napco too. The eps is somewhat in exact as if the metrics really work I would expect and hope the business reinvest cash flows into more growth opportunities as the market opportunity is so so great. So it is all about the metrics and top line. The 2020 number is just the full year effect of the onboarded 2019 total members

[nurdin] 11/9/2018 09:14

Excellent posts guys.

[sheep_herder] 11/9/2018 08:43

topper, thanks. Have to hold my hands up and say my model was far too simple. I've just done a slightly better one with the expansion next year plugged in and it looks a lot more likely.

We know that they're adding around 80 members a month currently if the 480 member exit rate is true, so call it 50 members added per month next year starting from 500 in Jan.

I'm assuming the average member spend is probably S-curve shaped so starting low, ramping up before tailing off towards 60%. I'm just using a flat rate to model this for now. Call it 30-40% for each member.

One thing that shifts the goal posts is highlighted in this presentation which is the fact that the GTR goes up dramatically for the higher online spend. I either hadn't seen this before or forgot. So the GTR range is 3-8%.



And I'm using a profit margin of 85% and an exchange rate of 0.77. I'm ignoring costs for now and the UK business is not worth looking at. I still have no input from NAPCO.

So using 3% GTR and 30% flat rate for revenue captured gives EPS for 2019/2020 of 7.5p/13.4p.

3%/40% gives 10p/17.8p.
8%/40% gives 26.8p/47.5p.

Is that the right ball park?

[topperlaser1] 11/9/2018 06:25

Read what I wrote carefully. They assume they capture 60% of the average members revenues. It will be a pay off between no of members onboarded and percentage they captured. Plus you had uk business and Napco. Yes I have read the research

[sheep_herder] 10/9/2018 23:32

topper, your maths is indeed fine, but that $850K is the total yearly average for each member. Have you seen the Finncap note? If that is indeed what they're predicting then they need their heads examined. They surely can't be assuming the take up will be 100% when they're currently only averaging £37K each for the 5 months we know about? Extrapolate that and you get a $ spend at the half year of $116K/yr/member.

I really can't believe they can grow the average spend that quickly.

[topperlaser1] 10/9/2018 19:18

Typo...for 2019 I believe Finncap research has 50 new members additionally signed each month next year

[topperlaser1] 10/9/2018 19:14

Not sure why people still confused here. Stephen1946's Math's is somewhat wonky!! I am a believer in the company's and Nikki - like he is!!....The modelling of their financials is not complex - it is members onboarded * average member revenue which Finncap say is $850k * GTR rate 3.5% * assumption of what they capture of that member revenue plus pro forma assumption of what they onboarded each month next year.....that gives Gross Transactions Revenues....then model gross margin say 85% or more....less cost base that finncap have and take off tax......build a model! If you assume exit rate circa 450 members using / onboarded and capture 60% of average revenue then you get circa 10p but you need to make assumptions re cost. More suppliers signed the higher the probability of capturing the members revenues...ala Just Eat...order a pizza more likely if your favourite pizza supplier (restaurant) signed up.....Personally think results end September are about trading statement around metrics to end September and momentum...growth in numbers signed up, numbers using, numbers repeat using etc. Suggest reading broker research will help many of the contributors to this board!

[robbnw] 10/9/2018 12:52

Agreed john

[john09] 10/9/2018 09:58

It’s only £6m I know that much and if the EPS is accurate for next year then in 3 months at this price we will be on a CURRENT PE of single digits which for a growth company is nuts.

[nurdin] 10/9/2018 09:52

I would really like to know what assumptions the analysts are making when forecasting 9p next year...

[robbnw] 10/9/2018 09:43

SheepI also don't expect the figures for the half year to be earth shattering in income terms They don't need to be All they need to show is that the onboarding is moving at a pace and is going in the right direction That's what the market needs to see Martin is non exec I assume now Nikki can run the show which is what she was taken on for Martin remains the largest shareholder

[sheep_herder] 10/9/2018 09:24

rob, ok, thanks. Martin is still involved though, unless something has changed in a month, but he can concentrate on the fun stuff like looking for new business.

I'm not so sure the results in Sept are going to be that extraordinary though. There certainly won't be any wallet busting figures announced for the current year and I'm still sceptical of the 9p estimate for next year. Even with 1000 active members, that would equate to a monthly average spend of $22K on AIMPro. So NAPCO really needs to come online quickly.

[john09] 10/9/2018 08:53

You’d hope so with the new consultants Well and truly on board

[robbnw] 10/9/2018 08:53

John UPGS has only fallen hasn't it or am I missing something