Good mention here- |
YS - for sure will never forget DJAN. My equal largest gain in 50yrs of investment when the bid arrived just a few days after I bought and recommended on my Blog site (JDT thread). The other equal largest also came this year with my Tip of the Year on the same site. That was some start to 2020 - then along came Covid the next month!!! |
 1) Insider ownership
ARTL: 68% (Antler and Alpha Pte). v good but this does have its own issue.
BPCT, EPIC, RGL, SLI, SREI: very limited, the usual brain dead instit investors providing limited pressure to the management.
2) Strategy
ARTL increasing debt exposure vs direct equity. Security of income is greater and more protected (if a loan is not paying interest, artl would just take over the asset.). Not sure if they will be as successfull as RECI but they are well known in the debt market.
3) Real Estate view/cycle
Covid has/will trigger significant changes in the property sector.
Retail will be further impacted, leisure/food hospitality as well. (h20?)
Offices will have to be refurbished (hepa filter?), will have to be reconfigure, structural vacancy, etc
Lettings market is generally weak (wfh then not wfh then wfh.. how can you sign a 5 years lease??) with more concessions provided to tenants.
Investment sector is mixed: large open ended funds finally reopen could trigger substantial supply.
Additional supply should hit the market from lpa receiver acting for lender on busted loans.
then factor in Uk economy current state impacting the occupational and investment market (unemployment, v or w or l shape recovery)
finally factor in, the final outcome of brexit (no one knows what will happen, i really hope everything will be fine/oven ready but creating uncertainty now)
so punting the propcos because of large discount, yes it can be strategy, if well timed and no further stress and if you believe that the discount is not justified and will reduce. and if there is a rally, well done, you just deserve it.
Buying long term a company with large insider ownership, may also be an good investment (i am sure people remember Daejan holdings. artl not as close as djan but to some extent similar) |
Pavey - this chat not worth pursuing for either of us.
All I would say is that perhaps you have misunderstood my position re the REITs. I wasn't a holder during the fall; I am just looking at them now as good value trades; and have been doing exactly that for the past 3-4months.
Incidentally, I have profitably held ARTL in the recent past (in March '19 and again in May'19; and no doubt will do so again. |
Pavey - rose tinted or what; and as for your comments re the ST tip - surprisingly naive or just blind to the facts.
No problem; but why so huffy when someone just thinks they may be fully valued? |
On a more general note to holders and potential holder, I just plotted on the ADVFN overlay facility, SLI (the only REIT I hold) against ARTL over 1,2,3 and 5 years....
...well I bought some SLI back at 50p recently and although the value is only c.25% of my ARTL holding I really don't know what I was thinking.
ARTL has produced a COMPOUND growth of 18% a year over the last five years ....including COVID and if I go back to the beginning of March (not the peak share price but the start of the covid effect)the COMPOUND growth was 23% a year for the previous 4.5 years.(excluding dividends)
This management is very nimble and exited the ground rents sector just at the right time, built the H20 shopping centre then sold 70% for much gain, the data centre in Germany for much gold, the student accommodation in Leeds and Birmingham again for considerable profit and now they are making short term asset backed loans to property developers.
I wondered how they could get such high rates of return on such low risk loans (very high asset backing)but it seems that banks etc can't enter this market without jumping through a large number of hoops so if you want a million or two for six months or so to finish your multi million pound project you don't have a big choice.
My point is that as long as this is a profitable place for their cash then these guys will be there but if not they will simply move on.
Not only are these loans heavily asset backed but there is a large number of them which obviously spreads the risk.
There have been no defaults but it would not surprise me if ARTL simply took over a seriously distressed project and this would be at very advantageous term.
Cash is still coming in from India and recent property sales so my guess is that they will let the Covid dust to settle(if it ever does), manage their existing loans then there will be any number of developers desperate to get their projects finished.....step in ARTL. |
Skyship, As I said before I am not here to convince you or anyone else ....each to his own but you are investing in companies with much greater risk than ARTL and have a much poorer record of enhancing shareholder value.
To suggest that their Spanish shopping centre is a cause for concern when they now have close to 50% of their assets value in cash is a rather strange way of looking at things.....you must have a rather "rose tinted" view of some of your property holdings.
Simon Thompson did not MAKE the share price he merely pointed out to people the rather obvious merits of the company and investors have taken it from there.
The share price has maintained its value simply because any serious investor looking at ARTL, doing proper research and subsequently buying the shares has not been disappointed in their investment.
Anyway you are not really interested here and as I said before it is NOTHING like the list of your recent buys but it is much more likely to increase shareholder returns and it is a MUCH,MUCH safer investment than say SLI and the others for the reasons I pointed out previously.
PS. "chance their arm"...........these people NEVER chance their arm....that is my point. |
As I said in my earlier: "Meanwhile, it will be very interesting to see where/when they decide to chance their arm & invest some of that cash."
I recognise their talents; it's just that I think they are fully valued thnx to ST! |
Pavey - yes, as I stated back in April, I share the same concerns as cerrito, he too concerned as to the valuation of a Spanish shopping centre which represents 15.6% of the portfolio.
I was right as I stated re the Simon Thompson tip. On the Friday 19th June they rose interestingly from 149p to 154.5p; then on the Tip on the Monday they jumped to 169.5p; and have largely held that gain. |
They were good long before Simon Thompson's recent tip,H2O Isn't a big asset now as they built it ,developed it and sold most of it for much gain......it's what they do.I'm not here to convince you but you did comment on my post, that is why I responded.I noticed that you were looking at them before and were put off by another poster which suggests to me that you were never serious .ARTL is not to be compared with the likes of SLI and the others on your list .(I bought quite a few SLI in Dec 2018 and sold when they got ahead of themselves but bought some last week. SLI does not occupy the same place in my portfolio as ARTL)If things get rough again then these guys with a very large wedge of cash and their very nimble approach will certainly do much better than a bunch of landlords bemoaning non payment of rents ,rising void rates and loans to pay...............but each to his own. |
Hi Pavey
ARTL had a good rise back in June after Simon Thompson re-tipped again!
They have largely held onto that gain; so IMO the current share price is rather tip enhanced.
One possible concern is the large asset H2O - a shopping centre in Madrid.
Meanwhile, it will be very interesting to see where/when they decide to chance their arm & invest some of that cash. |
Skyship, I also hold (very,very recently SLI) but you are comparing apples with oranges..The guys at ARTL are in a different league to anyone buying a shed that's leased to B&Q and up until the recent turmoil the share price reflected their ability.ARTL is much more of a bargain than anything like SLI but only if you appreciate their history of deal making and their ability to make the right move time after time.Each to his own and yield alone does not make a good investment but in that area and with their fairly recent change of direction I expect the yield to increase at a much greater rate than the shares in your chosen list. |
Certainly not the same yield though! |
Bit more like RECI now, rather than other Commercial Property co.s. |
Pavey - I currently hold 5 propcos - BCPT, EPIC, RGL, SLI & SREI.
The average discount = 41.3%; and the average yield = 6.3%.
ARTL far from under-valued IMO. |
Very interesting update.
As you would expect these guys seem to have positioned the company in a very nice place .....funny that....they must be very lucky !!???
Anyway as there seems to be a total absence of any kind of response so I thought I'd point out something that will be obvious to some and a complete mystery to others.
With a NAV of 211p and a share price of 167p the discount appears to be c.21%
Wrong!!......In any real world situation you can't discount cash.
The company appears to be rapidly approaching 50% cash but to keep things simple lets say 100p/share.
211p NAV -100p
167p share price - 100p
(111-67)/111 give 40%
He-ho ... it is my way of looking at this.
In the interests of full disclosure I hold a reasonable number of these. |
Not a subscriber...so apart from buy what else did they say :) |
Re-tipped as a BUY in Simon Thompson column on Investors Chronicle website today... |
to all LTH's - i posted previously re Antler having gone over 30% not having been aware of the concert party rule that means they are not subject to Rule 9 of the takeover code. Apologies if this misled anyone
RA |
Antler have gone over 30% |
Just made a little top up here.
With the Indian cash looking secure the NAV must be close to 220p.
Obviously H2O must have some sort of a write down but with the Birmingham land sale added to the cash from Galaxia the cash pile is looking like 84p/share.
Plenty of secure looking assets to add to this so obviously happy to add.
Also quite happy with the margins in their loan book they may even be in the market for distressed assets as they have the cash....and the know how!! |
ARTL mentioned here at 3 mins |
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