Allergy Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[jimmyloser] 10/1/2018 18:09

aruntim,
Based on the RNS yesterday which was upbeat in the extreme to me and Hardman's recent note (bb3375) my feelings are that once again we are in for an upbeat trading statement in a couple of weeks time. (fingers crossed) AGY pushing 40p is nothing new and we could and should see ourselves doing it again in the next four weeks. Another piece of exciting strategic news would underwrite it nicely.

We now have numerous irons in the fire and so anything can happen.

Best not to get too excited and remember that this is a solid and particularly boring investment for long term investors..

impo/dyor

[aruntim] 10/1/2018 17:51

Thanks for your thoughts jimmyloser, acknowledging impoi/dyor, of course.

My thoughts are similar although hoping the transition from 31.5p to 100p starts in the Spring '18 to allow me to either cash and run or finance the property another way. There is also an argument for not investing in property full stop, of course!

I'd like to see another step change to 40-45p in the next couple of months as that would give me the confidence to hold, I think.

Thanks,

Tim

impoi/dyor

[jimmyloser] 10/1/2018 17:30

aruntim,
I agree that on positive news from the trial announced yesterday ( otc that is potentially mind blowing news for the SP) and continued progress with the multiple other strategic activities these could re-rate very easily. I don't believe that this will happen until at least November.

But that is only my personal take.

I figure that by 2020 we could actually be approaching the 100p barriers providing that no flies enter the ointment.

My full confidence here is in the quality of the management.

impoi/dyor

[aruntim] 10/1/2018 17:12

Timing is everything, I'm going to need to sell my holding within the next six months to fund a property purchase, seriously hoping I can see some of the upside having held for a good few years. Already well in profit but I do think these will fly soon ... ish!

[jimmyloser] 10/1/2018 15:22

Yesterday
Investment summary: AGY is going through an exciting period, with a clear vision, gaining market share from competitors, and leading the race to have its products fully approved and regulated as biologicals − first in Europe, and then in the US, where the regulators are demanding change.

Read-out from the EU Phase III PQ Birch trial in 2018 will provide the next major value inflection point.

[jimmyloser] 09/1/2018 09:19

With a possible Trading update imminent to read this line this morning was encouraging........"from the growing, profitable European revenue stream";

amen.
impo/dyor etc

[farmergeorge] 04/1/2018 15:08

If one takes an average of broker forecasts in 2017, then AGY is some 30%-35% undervalued.

[qackers] 04/1/2018 14:54

Over sold?. Trading update 29/1/18 (tentative) according to web site.

[farmergeorge] 04/1/2018 14:45

I haven't seen anything - will post if I find something. The volume of transactions considerably exceeds any recent numbers - currently total volume stands at 273,588.

[jimmyloser] 04/1/2018 14:42

Has it been tipped?

[farmergeorge] 04/1/2018 14:32

Yes I agree, but what was the catalyst for movement now?

[richsawko] 04/1/2018 14:04

Just long overdue!

[farmergeorge] 04/1/2018 14:00

There seems to be movement in the share price - any reason?

[piedro] 12/12/2017 08:35

Wrong thread ...

[blather1] 10/12/2017 09:01

The other weird thing is that on the 6th December, the day Black Rock upped their holding to 30,000,000 odd shares or 5.12% I can see no other really significant transactions of note.....either sales or purchases. The only big transactions are those two separate 1,000,000 share trades amounting to a total value of £500,000 odd on that day. By the way those transactions amount to just 1/2 a percent of the total shares in issue. I think those two 1M share trades on the 6th December were the Black Rock purchases and have incorrectly flagged up as sales on various platforms such as HL. Can anyone verify either way?

[blather1] 09/12/2017 09:53

The other thing that might be driving the price down ( along with profit taking ) is that AGY have just created 10,000,000 shares to hand out as motivators to staff as time goes on. That is dilution of the equity .......but only by a factor of 1/60th! There are 594,000,000 millions shares. If that's the driver down ( or part of it) it's a vast overreaction and time to buy more surely! Its also arguable that in creating shares to be used as motivators/rewards for performance the company is expressing confidence in its future share price. Why issue something that isn't expected to rise in value?

[blather1] 09/12/2017 09:47

It's weird that the two 1,000,000 share transactions you're pointing up are showing as sales on my Hargreaves Lansdowne account display but are both on the day that Black Rock upped their holding to a total of 5.1%. My guess is that a 2M share transaction for £0.5m looks right for a Black Rock purchase.....not a sale. I've had discussions with Hargreaves Lansdowne about when transactions are indeed sales ...or purchases. Several of my personal purchases have been shown as sales on HL. HL say there is no mechanism by which they can determine whether a transactions is a sale or a purchase. Some that they are REALLY unsure about they post in black (instead of blue for a purchase and red for a sale). So I'm wondering if these two 1,000,000 plus share transactions were actually purchases by Black Rock and not sales!? If I were buying 2 mill shares I'd want a great price and bargain down! Maybe different platforms to HL do ACCURATELY display a sale as a sale and a purchase as a purchase? Are these two transaction showing as sales on other peoples platforms/devices?

[jimmyloser] 07/12/2017 17:15

Blackrock

Are these the transactions that took them over? Looks to be more to this than meets the eye!

5 28.25 1023310 O 28.0 29.5 11:50:21 1,023,310
4 28.25 1022943 O 28.0 29.5 11:50:19 1,022,943

[jimmyloser] 07/12/2017 17:11

Holding notice coming?

[richsawko] 06/12/2017 13:50

Wow, two sells at over 1,000,000. I wonder weather this was what has drawn the price down. Maybe now that it has cleared we will begin to rise again

[volsung] 05/12/2017 16:52

I thought you'd be pleased Au

[audigger] 05/12/2017 16:49

Alas some blue....

[audigger] 04/12/2017 15:38

Quite a pull=back. Excellent opportunity for a top-up.

[richsawko] 29/11/2017 10:47

Who knows but seems to happen every year. This drop more excessive than previous ones though. Can see no reason as fundamental behind rise remain intact